Super Bowl 59 Showdown: Best DFS Plays for Chiefs vs. Eagles

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Best DFS Plays for Super Bowl 59: Eagles Offense

Saquon Barkley

Barkley is interesting because he is cost prohibitive and yet will likely still be easily the most popular captain on the slate and one of the most popular options overall.

That popularity makes sense.

The Chiefs have struggled to stop the run in recent games, specifically struggle to stop the run when the offense is in 11 personnel, which the Eagles play a lot, and Barkley has an established stratospheric ceiling.

So the question is not whether we should play Barkley but rather how do we play him?

First, if Barkley hits for a captain-level game, can Jalen Hurts get the touchdowns and/or passing volume he will likely need to post a solid value score?

The answer to that question is obviously yes. We just saw it in the NFC Championship game, but that contest featured 78 points. I am not expecting that kind of offensive onslaught in the Super Bowl.

Second, if Barkley does not hit that captain-level score, do I want him in my lineup at all? If he gets 125 yards from scrimmage but doesn't find the end zone, is that enough for a FLEX spot given his price?

My rules for Barkley will be pretty simple. If he is my captain, I don't want Hurts in the lineup. If he is not at the captain spot, I will not be playing him.

Those rules come with the understanding Hurts could rush for 3 touchdowns again, Barkley could go for 3 scores again himself, and I look like more of an idiot than usual.

Jalen Hurts

Hurts is my favorite captain option.

We know he has the upside for a big score, he is not going to be as popular as Saquon Barkley, Patrick Mahomes, or perhaps even Travis Kelce, and I expect the Chiefs to focus on forcing Hurts to beat them.

Steve Spagnuolo has a history of shutting down great rushing attacks when it matters the most. You only have to look at the last two Super Bowls to see that in action.

I would expect the Chiefs to focus on stopping Barkley, leaving opportunities for Hurts to exploit.

Can the Chiefs actually stop Barkley? Will Hurts take advantage if they do?

Time will tell, but Hurts throwing for a touchdown, rushing for a few more, and posting the biggest fantasy score of the game is well within the realm of possibilities.

Dallas Goedert

A.J. Brown is obviously a fine play given his target share, especially if the Chiefs decide to play a lot of man coverage, but this matchup is better for the other two main pass catchers on the roster.

Goedert in particular is in a great spot, and he is wildly underpriced given his current usage.

Goedert is tied for the team lead with 18 targets through three playoff games, and he has been targeted on a larger percentage of his routes than Brown.

He has lines of 4-47-1, 4-56-0, and 7-85-0 in those games.

His matchup could not be any better, either.

The Chiefs are dead last in the NFL in yards per target allowed to tight ends.

They have faced the fourth-most tight end targets and have allowed the second-most tight end receptions.

The concern for every Eagles pass catcher is volume.

Philly has the second-lowest dropback rate when leading in the second half this season. They have consistently shown a willingness to pack it in if they have the lead.

Of course, they are currently underdogs in this game, and an easy Eagles win is on the lower end of the probability scale.

Even if the game script goes that way, though, Goedert has the added benefit of being cheap.

That makes him a viable option for every kind of lineup construction because he does not have as high a bar to clear to be a solid value play.

He might not be in 100% of my lineups, but it will not be far off.

DeVonta Smith

Unlike tight ends, the Chiefs have suffocated opposing receivers this season.

They rank fourth in yards per target allowed to the position and have been even better with a healthy Jaylen Watson.

There are some positive signals for Smith, though.

The Chiefs were much worse against slot receivers this season, ranking 28th in yards per target allowed.

Smith has played 53.1% of his snaps in the slot this postseason with everyone healthy.

Second, Smith has a history of success against this defense.

In three career games against the Chiefs including Super Bowl 57, Smith has lines of 7-122-0, 7-100-0, and 6-99-0.

While Smith has been the clear No. 3 option in the passing game with A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert healthy, this game specifically sets up better for him than it does Brown, and Smith comes at a big discount.

Punt Plays

Jahan Dotson has been targeted just twice in the playoffs and has been targeted on just 7.6% of his routes overall this season even when including his 11-target game when the starters were resting in Week 18.

None of that sounds very good, but there is a reason to be interested in Dotson as a punt play: He is going to be on the field.

Dotson has run a route on 71.8% of Philly's dropbacks in the postseason since they primarily work with three receivers on the field.

Marquise Brown has a 72.7% route rate for the Chiefs in the postseason, and every other Kansas City receiver besides Xavier Worthy is well below Dotson's route participation rate.

He will need to actually get targets, which likely means he will need the Eagles to be in a negative game script in the second half.

It is easy to build lineups around that idea, though, and Dotson fits well into those kinds of builds.

Best DFS Plays for Super Bowl 59: Chiefs Offense

Patrick Mahomes

Operating under the assumption the Chiefs will struggle to run the ball against the Eagles, Mahomes could be headed for a big attempt game if the Eagles keep things close.

Mahomes has only attempted 25 and 26 passes thus far in the playoffs, but the Chiefs have dropped back to pass 61.3% of the time in neutral situations over the last two games.

That dropback rate would have ranked inside the top 10 in the regular season.

Will he have success dropping back that much?

That is a very fair question given the matchup.

The Eagles rank first in the league in yards per attempt allowed, and it is not even close.

They rank eighth in pressure rate overall and fourth in pressure rate without a blitz.

They play quarters and Cover 6 at some of the highest rates in the league. Collectively, those coverages make up around a third of their defensive snaps.

On 141 dropbacks against those two converges this season, Mahomes averaged 6.6 yards per attempt (32nd among 36 qualified quarterbacks) with a 1.6% touchdown rate (26th) and 2.4% interception rate (25th).

Of course, Mahomes and Andy Reid have had two weeks to prepare for this defense, and Mahomes has an added fantasy out if he is not efficient as a passer.

Mahomes has 18 rushing attempts through two playoff games and a 15.2% scramble rate.

This is not a great matchup for Mahomes, and he has not had a great fantasy season.

I will not have as much invested in Mahomes as the public at large, but it is impossible to full fade one of the best to ever do it.

Travis Kelce

Kelce is in a weird place because he did not have a great regular season compared to his standards, is coming off an AFC Championship in which he was shut down, and faces a tough matchup on paper.

That said, he has a long history of big performances in big games, and he is the safest bet for the targets on the Chiefs.

More than those two things, though, the factor that has me interested in using Kelce is how teams have attacked the Eagles since Nakobe Dean went down.

The Rams targeted their tight ends 12 times against Philly, and the Commanders targeted the position a whopping 19 times in the NFC Championship game.

16 of those targets went to Zach Ertz, who caught 11 of them for 104 yards.

It was not a particularly efficient outing from Ertz, and the Eagles still rank third in the playoffs in yards per target allowed to tight ends despite all of those attempts.

But especially on a full-PPR site like DraftKings, Kelce could get the score he needs based on volume alone.

Marquise Brown

Fully fading Xavier Worthy will be my biggest call of this slate.

Worthy does not set up well for this matchup.

He has averaged just 8.7 air yards per target this season, 83rd among 107 qualified receivers, and 61.5% of his receiving yards have come after the catch (7th).

In the playoffs, he is averaging 4.5 air yards per target, and 50% of his yards have come after the catch.

The Eagles shut down yards after the catch.

They have allowed just 3.9 yards after the catch per reception this season, third-best in the league.

They have allowed just 4.8 yards per target on throws of 10 air yards or fewer. The Vikings are second at 5.4 yards per target allowed on those throws.

There are no good matchups against this Eagles defense, but they are a particularly tough matchup for someone with Worthy's profile.

Enter Marquise Brown.

The matchup is also not ideal for Brown because, again, no matchups are ideal against the Eagles, but his usage in the postseason could allow him to make some big plays.

Brown only has a 14.3% target share in the playoffs thus far, but he has run a route on 72.7% of Kansas City's dropbacks.

He has also been the primary downfield target.

Brown is averaging 18.3 air yards per target in the playoffs, and 42.9% of his targets have been at least 20 yards down the field.

The Eagles are very good at stopping those deep shots — again, they are very good at stopping everything — but that usage offers Brown the opportunity to put up a lot of fantasy points on just one play.

Harrison Butker

It would likely need to be a lower scoring game that features several failed Chiefs red zone visits, but Butker has a path to be in a winning lineup given his history in the playoffs.

Butker has multiple field goal attempts in seven of nine playoff games since 2022. He had 2 in the Super Bowl win over the Eagles and 4 against the 49ers last season.

The Chiefs struggled in the red zone all season, ranking 22nd in the league in red zone touchdown rate in the regular season and kicking the most field goals in the red zone overall.

Philly's defense has stood strong in the red zone, which is not surprising for a Vic Fangio unit.

The Eagles ranked fifth in red zone touchdown rate allowed in the regular season.

If both of those factors hold true to form, we could see several opportunities from short distance for Butker in this game.

Of course, that would mean fewer touchdowns for the offensive players on the Chiefs, which is something to consider when thinking about which lineups fit Butker the best.

Putting Butker with Travis Kelce, a player who as mentioned above does not need a touchdown to hit, on the other side of an Eagles stack makes a lot of sense.

Punt Plays

JuJu Smith-Schuster stands out as a quality punt play given his usage in the postseason.

Smith-Schuster is actually fourth on the Chiefs in route rate so far in the playoffs.

That has only resulted in 4 targets through two games, but as mentioned above with Jahan Dotson, simply being on the field is a bonus for lower salary guys in a one-game contest.

Smith-Schuster is also $800 cheaper than Noah Gray — another good punt play if the Chiefs lean into 12 personnel as they probably should — and $2,400 cheaper than DeAndre Hopkins, who just has not been used thus far in the postseason.