Texans vs Chiefs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Divisional Round

Overview

This is the only regular season rematch of the Divisional Round. Back in Week 6, Houston went into Kansas City and pulled out a 31-24 win. 

In that game, Houston ran 83 offensive plays to just 47 for the Chiefs. That 36-play difference was tied for the largest in a game this season as Houston held the football for 39:48, the fourth-highest time of possession in a game this year.  After a 23-17 first half in Houston’s favor, the Texans ran 41 second half plays to just 16 second half plays for the Chiefs.

Kansas City wasn’t what they are now from a health stance on offense. In that Week 6 game, they were missing both LT Eric Fisher and LG Stefen Wisniewski on the offensive line, and Sammy Watkins at receiver. Tyreek Hill also played fewer snaps than Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle in that game, even though he delivered a 5-80-2 line through the air. The Chiefs have gotten healthier to end the season and  results have followed as they surged up to the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Kansas City has won six consecutive games, all by at least seven points and the past five wins all coming by double-digits. 

The offense was excellent once again, ranking second in the league in scoring rate per drive (51.3%) and touchdown rate per drive (29.7%) for the season, but it was their defense coming together to close that season that gives this Chiefs team a new wrinkle.

From Week 11 on, opposing teams scored on 24.6% of their possessions against the Chiefs, ahead of only the Ravens (23.9%) over that span. During that time, teams found the end zone on just 7-of-57 possessions (12.3%), the lowest rate in the league. 

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes finished the regular season sixth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (20.5), but wasn’t the immovable fantasy juggernaut he was over his record-breaking 2018 campaign. Returning to the lineup in Week 10, Mahomes threw more than 251 yards in just three of seven games with three games with fewer than 200 yards through the air. There’s a good chance he gets there this week against a Houston pass defense that has allowed 27.9 passing yards to quarterbacks per drive, the most in the league. Houston ranks 28th in passing points allowed per game (18.1). After dealing with ankle and knee injuries for the front half of the season, Mahomes has also used his legs more recently. Over the final six games of the season, Mahomes averaged 4.3 rushing points per game. 

Deshaun Watson: Watson was the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback on the Wild Card Round (29.4 points) thanks to a game script we’ve highlighted multiple times this season as being what often unlocks his ceiling. Watson is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in negative scripts and in a setting where he needs to chase the points when the offense falls completely on his shoulders. For his career, Watson is averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt and 6.1 yards per rush with nine rushing touchdowns. While ahead, he’s posted 7.7 Y/A with a 99.2 rating, rushing for 4.3 Y/A and three scores. As an underdog entering the game this season, Watson threw for 8.2 Y/A while trailing (sixth in the league) while tacking on 230 rushing yards and six rushing scores chasing points. In four games this season as an underdog by more than a field goal, Watson averaged 23.3 fantasy points per game. As mentioned in the open, the Chiefs defense has been hot, but they have also faced Philip Rivers (x2), Derek Carr, Tom Brady, Drew Lock, and Mitchell Trubisky over their final six games, who aren’t in Watson’s weight class.

Running back

Damien Williams: When Williams has been healthy over the back half of the season, the Chiefs have handed him the keys to the backfield. Over his past four full games, Williams has had 16 touches for 154 yards and two touchdowns, 19-92-1, 24-109, and 14 -128-1. LeSean McCoy closed the season with 26 total touches since Kansas City’s Week 12 bye. Houston ranks 24th in rate of runs allowed to gain 10 or more yards (12.8%) while they are 32nd in receiving points allowed per game to opposing backfields (14.5). 

Carlos Hyde: The Texans leaned on Hyde when these teams played in Week 6. In that game, Hyde handled 27 touches for 130 yards with a touchdown. Over the 11 games since, Hyde has hit 100 yards rushing in just two other games with three rushing touchdowns. The Chiefs ranked 26th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards allowed (13.7%), but allowed just one running back to reach 70 yards on the ground over their final six games of the season. As a road underdog, Hyde has tallied 11 receptions all season if the Texans fall far behind here and can’t control script like they did in the first meeting.

Duke Johnson: Even in a game where the Texans fall behind two scores in the second half, Johnson still maintained limited usage in the Wild Card Round, playing 26 snaps (38.8%). Johnson still stayed efficient, turning six touches into 68 yards. Johnson turned seven touches into 54 yards and a touchdown through the air when these teams met in Week 6. If Johnson were to get extended use, this could be the set up as a large, road underdog against a Kansas City defense that allowed 6.3 receptions per game to opposing backfields (30th).

Wide receiver

DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins worked through a tough matchup and a catchless first half last week to finish with a solid 6-90 game receiving on eight targets. He had 32% of the team targets, giving him 11 consecutive games with at least 25% of the Houston targets. The Chiefs ranked ninth in points allowed to opposing WR1 options this season (13.0). Opposing teams targeted their wide receivers just 49.4% of the time versus the Chiefs, which was the lowest rate in the league. But Hopkins occupies a bettable target share and just faced the team that ranked first in points allowed to WR1s. Hopkins caught 9-of-12 targets when these teams met in Week 6, but turned in just 55 yards on those catches and targets with a 6.9-yard average depth of target. 

Tyreek Hill: Hill has only had two 100-yard games this season and his 9.7 yards per target fell below his 10.8 and 11.3 marks over the past two seasons. But he’s had a stable reception floor, catching at least five passes in seven of his past eight full games played. For all of the passing production that Houston has allowed, they were solid in defending the deep ball, ranking sixth in the league in success rate allowed on targets 15 yards or further downfield (34.9%). Despite defending vertical targets well, Houston has struggled with speed receivers at times this season, including allowed 5-80-2 to Hill himself when these teams played in Week 6.

Chiefs WRs: The Chiefs’ passing game wasn’t fully intact for a large part of the season, but when it was it flowed through Hill and Kelce. In the eight full games Hill played, he and Kelce occupied 49% of the Kansas City targets. After that, the trickle-down was Sammy Watkins (17%), Demarcus Robinson (7%), and Mecole Hardman (2%). Watkins hasn’t topped 64 yards in a game since Week 1 and has four or fewer catches in each of his past six games played, but he does have the most favorable individual matchup against Vernon Hargreaves in the slot, where he runs 56% of his routes. Hardman has two or fewer catches in 10 straight games, but if he’s going to find the end zone, odds are that it is going to be from a long way out. Hardman caught six touchdown passes this season, with five coming from 30 yards or further.

Will Fuller: Fuller is a wild card in terms of potential availability or staying on the field if he is even active. Fuller has reached 70 yards in just two games this season, but when he has hit, he’s hit big, with games of 7-140-0 and 14-217-3. When these teams played in Week 6, Fuller left a ton of points on the field. Catching just 5-of-99 targets for 44 yards in that game, Fuller led the team with 158 air yards and was credited with three dropped passes.

Kenny Stills: Stills found the end zone in three games this season, but all three of those games did have Fuller fully active on the field. In the six games Fuller missed or exited early, Stills had a 16.2% target share compared to 11.0% otherwise. He’s a touchdown or bust option. 

Tight end

Travis Kelce: Kelce wrapped his fourth-straight 1,000-yard receiving season as the highest-scoring fantasy tight end (15.9 points per game). Houston was 22nd in points allowed to opposing tight ends this season (12.9 per game), ranking 21st in yardage allowed per game to the position (54.3). Kelce caught 4-of-6 targets for 58 yards when these teams played earlier in the season.

Darren Fells: With Jordan Akins out last week, Fells played 64-of-67 offensive snaps. His four catches and 37 yards were game highs since Week 8. Opposing teams targeted their tight ends 25.6% of the time (the second-highest rate in the league) versus the Chiefs. Kansas City held up to the volume, ranking fifth in points allowed per target (1.59), but Houston tight ends caught 9-of-10 targets for 108 yards in the first meeting with Fells posting a 6-69 line.