In Thursday’s featured Showdown, The defending champion, Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Philadelphia Eagles. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.
The Buccaneers are touchdown favorites, which would normally command most of the rostership in 4-2 and 5-1 builds. However, the two best values are Eagles. Plus. Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith are popular players who project well tonight, so there should actually be far more Eagles rostered than a standard large underdog.
Hurts and Tom Brady should dominate rostership, projected between 15-21% at CPT and 62-80% total. The three stud Bucs receivers come next but the order is uncertain between Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin 8-11% CPT and 36-49% overall; Smith and Leonard Fournette are close behind.
Dallas Goedert is expected out, pending the results of Covid testing, so be sure to confirm his status before finalizing. Between the value-plays of Zach Ertz and Kenneth Gainwell, it looks like Ertz could be up to twice as popular, so I would prefer to use more Gainwell for leverage. I’m happy to use him even in line ups with miles sanders, given Gainwell’s projected value and that we just saw a solo winner utilize this strategy with Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor.
There are plenty of viable cheap options to help differentiate your chalkier stacks. Some of my favorites include Quez Watkins, Tyler Johnson and OJ Howard. The kickers are also projected for lower ownership than average given the values priced in that range tonight. I think this is another good opportunity to build as if the underdogs win, but Tampa Bay on slots of 5-1 might be underutilized too.
- Zach Ertz ($3200) – Mispriced with Dallas Goedert expected out
- Kenneth Gainwell ($2400)
- Giovani Bernard ($5200)
DK Build Ideas
- Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
- Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
- Negative boost same team RBs
- If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack, Brady CPT w/ 3+ pass-catchers
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
- Cumulative ownership under 250%
- Leave salary unspent, more so in chalkier builds
- Zach Ertz ($6500) – Mispriced with Dallas Goedert expected out
- Leonard Fournette ($11000) – Not much cheap value available
- Kenneth Gainwell ($8500)
- Ronald Jones ($7500) – Very overpriced for recent role
FD Build Ideas
- No K or TE at MVP
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
- If WR CPT, boost QB
- QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
- Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
- Don’t force the max salary
For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.