One remaining obstacle we still face in the fantasy community, as both content providers and consumers, is understanding that rankings, projections, tiers, and average draft positions serve different purposes and are not interchangeable.
I penned an offseason lead covering projections and their application, which you can review here.
While those projections give us a range of season long production and have implications for listing players in a linear format (rankings), even when those full season numbers are accurate, they fail to capture the overall weekly impact and the pockets of production that are relevant to our weekly game of fantasy football.
There are very few players at each position that smash weekly throughout the fantasy season at the highest level, and we are hopeful to be in on the remainder of players when they strike the hottest.
That is where player tiers come in.
2025 Fantasy Football Rankings
| 2025 Fantasy Football Rankings |
|---|
| Top 250 Rankings |
| Projections |
| Quarterback Rankings |
| Running Back Rankings |
| Wide Receiver Rankings |
| Tight End Rankings |
| Dynasty Rankings |
| Dynasty Rookie Rankings |
| Quarterback Tiers |
| Running Back Tiers (Coming Soon) |
| Wide Receiver Tiers (Coming Soon) |
| Tight End Tiers |
Click Here to Find Out How to Get Our Draft Kit for FREE!
Buy the Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Many player tiers available are simply rankings divided into sections.
While the rankings are more focused on a probable tally of season long output for a week to week game, I prefer to structure my tiers based on how similarly players accrue their fantasy points and by player archetypes.
By doing this, I can identify actionable gaps in player pricing per tier, which in turn allows for arbitrage in fantasy drafts while also highlighting some longer-odds players who have more potential than initially perceived.
Arbitrage in fantasy football is driven strongly by how production is accrued, and the order of those players (rankings) is driven by the opportunities (on a player and team level) that each player receives.
Our projections are inherently going to be wrong on those projected opportunities often.
A multitude of factors influence team situations.
Game script, injuries to a player himself, injuries to surrounding teammates, ineffective play, player breakouts, and so on.
That is just the game through injuries, performance variance, and fluctuation.
Understanding how a player is used enables us to identify prospects to buy into the variance in his performance across opportunities.
If we are wrong on the opportunity projection, then a lower-tiered player could be an arbitrage opportunity.
While there is no direct overlap with the individual player rankings, the order of these tiers reflects how I prioritize drafting positions from an archetypal stance.
While that may be confusing for a player ranked highly on a linear list versus a specific tier he is in, I will do my best to incorporate detailed thoughts regarding draft capital in those events throughout the player breakdowns.
One final note: I will be updating and adding analysis to these tiers throughout the summer.
With that introduction to the methodology used, let's proceed to the actual player analysis.
Tier 1 Fantasy Football TEs:
- Trey McBride
- Brock Bowers
- George Kittle
The tight end position is top heavy this season, with a group of three tight ends holding down the top tier.
Trey McBride
Bye: Week 8
Building on his 2023 breakout, McBride caught 111 passes for 1,146 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2024.
He led all tight ends in target rate per route (27.5%) and expected fantasy points per game.
When he was on the field, McBride commanded 31.7% of the Arizona targets.
That rate led all tight ends and was ninth among all players in the league.
McBride accounted for a position-high 29.2% of his team’s early down targets.
He led all tight ends with 2.11 yards per team pass attempt.
Arizona has done nothing to shake up their target tree this offseason and has a more manageable passing schedule, as we highlighted with Kyler Murray in the QB Tiers.
McBride has been a TE1 scorer in 20 of his past 26 games since taking over as the starting tight end.
All that is missing is touchdown production.
McBride has only 6 receiving touchdowns through three NFL seasons.
He scored 5.4 fewer touchdowns than expected, the worst difference among all tight ends and wide receivers.
He led all tight ends with 32.8% of his team’s targets in the red zone but only had 2 touchdowns on those throws.
He has 15 end zone targets over the past two seasons, but has only pulled in 3 of those (20%).
The base rate for tight ends converting end zone targets is 44%.
While a player with McBride’s volume is a screaming regression candidate to score more touchdowns, this has been an ongoing issue for him, not just in the NFL.
McBride never scored more than 4 touchdowns over his four seasons at Colorado State.
In his final college season, he had 90 receptions but only 1 touchdown.
McBride will need to turn that around to pay off a premium price point, and that is why I would flip McBride and Bowers based on full-PPR and TE Premium formats versus leagues that do not fully reward catch points.
Brock Bowers
Bye: Week 8
Bowers entered the NFL as one of the most productive collegiate tight ends in history and kicked off his career in a similar fashion.
Bowers ended his first year leading the tight end position in targets (153), receptions (112), and receiving yards (1,194) to go along with 5 touchdowns.
Bowers was targeted on 25.9% of his routes (4th) with 2.02 yards per route run (4th).
He closed the season as the highest scoring fantasy tight end, was second in points per game, and was third in expected points per game.
Bowers was elevated due to an early season trade of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers missing a handful of action.
With Meyers off the field, Bowers received a gaudy 33.7% of the team’s targets and was targeted on 33% of his routes, sporting 2.86 yards per route run on those snaps.
With Meyers on the field, Bowers had 24.3% of the team’s targets, drawing an opportunity on 24.4% of his routes with 1.85 yards per route run.
Bowers also had the benefit of running the most pass routes at the position last season (591).
We should expect that to come down in year two with Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly joining the team.
During his tenure in Seattle, Carroll’s teams had a 58.5% dropback rate, averaging 31.3 dropbacks per game.
Kelly’s NFL offenses have also been run heavy, sporting a 58.9% dropback rate and 35.0 dropbacks per game with the Eagles and 49ers.
Last year, the Raiders had a 65.6% dropback rate (4th) and averaged 41.1 dropbacks per game (3rd).
While the Raiders have set out to run the ball more this season with the coaching additions and the selection of Ashton Jeanty, Bowers will be receiving an upgrade at quarterback.
He may have fewer routes and, as a result, get fewer targets, but the quality of his targets will be improved.
79.1% of Bowers’ targets were shorter than 10 yards downfield as a rookie.
On those targets, 8.2% were inaccurate throws, the highest rate for a player with his target count.
The base rate of off-target throws for tight ends on those targets was only 6.1%.
Geno Smith has been one of the most accurate short-area throwers in the league the past two seasons.
Smith has only a 4.1% off-target rate on throws shorter than 10 yards downfield over the past two seasons, trailing only Joe Burrow (3.9%).
I do expect Bowers to have a reduction in his counting usage stats as a rookie due to the changes made in this offense, but I also believe he is a player we don’t need to overthink heavily.
This is the only two-time Mackey Award winner in college history who came in and immediately performed at a high level in the NFL.
We have a foundation that makes it easy to bet on his talent level.
With a quarterback upgrade and the Raiders not adding a significant threat to his target share, he comes with insulation against a massive year two dropoff like we saw Sam LaPorta suffer a year ago.
George Kittle
Bye: Week 14
Kittle was as good as ever in 2024, catching 78 passes for 1,106 yards and 8 touchdowns over 15 games.
He led all tight ends with 2.65 yards per route run.
Since entering the league in 2017, Kittle has led all tight ends in that category (2.37 yards per route).
He was once again a force after the reception, averaging 6.7 yards after the catch.
That was fourth among tight ends, while no player ahead of him caught as many passes as Kittle.
Kittle had 21 receptions of 20 or more yards. The next closest tight end had 15.
The 49ers had a 73.4% success rate on offense when Kittle was the target, the highest in the NFL for all tight ends and wide receivers.
Kittle had 30.3% of the San Francisco end zone targets, which led all tight ends.
Kittle will turn 32 this October and has played just two full NFL seasons while McBride and Bowers are in the ascension of their careers, but Kittle still outscored both in points per game last season.
Kittle has been in the top six in points per game at the position for seven straight years.
Kittle did take advantage of a rotating receiver room and the absence of Christian McCaffrey, but the wide receiver room is still not entirely settled following the trade of Deebo Samuel and with Brandon Aiyuk having an unknown timetable for return.
Those moving parts are why I would not overly stock any previous splits Kittle had when Samuel was not in the lineup or McCaffrey was in the lineup.
I do not expect Kittle to have the same path to an outrageous target share as McBride and Bowers have, but Kittle could lap both in the touchdown department again.
Kittle only ran 57 routes on the limited sample McCaffrey played, drawing 13.3% of the team targets and a target on 19.3% of those routes compared to 19.3% of the team’s targets and a target on 23.1% of his routes without McCaffrey.
This presents a new landscape for the team to create some volatility, but Kittle remains the best pass catcher the team has with Samuel gone and Aiyuk expected to miss the start of the season.
This is the part where I am obligated to remind gamers that the 49ers also have the top ranked passing schedule for 2025, a cherry on top.
I do have McBride and Bowers over Kittle based on career arcs, but I do believe that Kittle should be more tightly packed with those two than where the initial ADP has opened this summer.
Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business
Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.
From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.
Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.
Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!
Tier 2 Fantasy Football TEs:
To continue reading this article
and gain access to all of Rich Hribar's industry leading content both before and during the season, click below to learn more about our fantasy football bundle.
Learn More