Broncos vs. Titans Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Broncos and Titans.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Bo Nix: Nix ended a productive rookie year by throwing 29 touchdowns with 12 interceptions, adding 430 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns.

He was not a consistent week-to-week runner but did end up with 430 yards rushing (QB8) and a 7.8% scramble rate (QB10).

He capped a strong rookie season by completing over 70% of his passes in each of the final three games and throwing multiple passing touchdowns in seven of the final eight games.

Sean Payton targeted Nix to mold him into a proxy of his new version of Drew Brees with athleticism, and he set that plan in motion in year one.

There was an emphasis on having Nix get rid of the football.

28.7% of his throws were at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Only Patrick Mahomes (30.8%) and Tua Tagovailoa (31.1%) had a higher rate.

Nix led the NFL with 7 passing touchdowns on those throws at or behind the line.

When Nix got rid of the football within 2.5 seconds of the snap, he was 10th in rating (103.9), throwing 15 touchdowns and 1 interception.

His 5.6% touchdown rate on those throws was ninth in the league.

Some rookie-season warts cropped up when he was forced to hold the football.

When holding the ball for over 2.5 seconds, Nix dipped to 21st in rating (84.1), throwing 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

His 4.7% touchdown rate on those throws dipped to 20th in the league, while his 3.7% interception rate was 24th.

Despite the quality season based on expectations, Nix was more of a floor-based fantasy option.

Nix was QB15 in points per dropback (0.50). He had eight games last season against pass defenses at the front of the league before his Week 18 matchup against the Kansas City backups.

In those games against those opponents, he averaged QB18 in weekly scoring (14.5 points per game) with a high week as QB10.

He logged only two weeks higher than QB7 before Week 18, both of which came in identifiable matchups against Carolina and Atlanta.

One element that is strongly in his favor is that he gets to work in the same system as last year, something he did not do in college.

This is the first time since high school that Nix has had the same head coach and play caller in consecutive seasons. Denver also has the same quarterback coach as last year.

We are catching Nix as a significant home favorite, in a good spot to serve as a fringe QB1/QB2, but this is a game where I do believe Denver can control things with their defense and give their new backfield opportunities.

We may not have a full ceiling runout if the latter occurs.

Tennessee was a boom-or-bust pass defense last season.

In 2024, the Titans ranked 22nd in passing points allowed per attempt (0.450).

They allowed only 6.8 yards per pass attempt (seventh) but surrendered a 5.5% touchdown rate (29th).

If Nix can use his legs here, Tennessee allowed 25.6 yards rushing per game to passers, 27th in the league.

Cam Ward: Ward has a low bar to clear for this to become an immediate upgrade for the Titans.

Tennessee passers combined to rank 30th in the NFL in EPA per dropback (-0.09).

They were 27th in success rate (38.1%), while 19.4% of their dropbacks resulted in a loss of 1.0 EPA or worse (31st).

That said, we should anticipate some growing pains.

His pass-catching room is not flush with talent beyond Calvin Ridley.

Ward was 10 of 19 (52.6%) for 7.6 yards per pass attempt this preseason.

He wants to push the ball downfield, something that comes with volatility in the current defensive landscape.

He averaged 10.7 air yards per attempt with a 15.8% deep target rate.

The league rate in those departments last year was 7.7 air yards per attempt with an 11.6% deep throw rate.

We also have not seen a lot of success from rookie quarterbacks in Week 1.

Since 2010, No. 1 overall draft picks at quarterback are 1-9-1 (2-8-1 ATS) in their first career start.

1-6-1 (2-5-1 ATS) in Week 1.

In the 2000s, rookie quarterbacks in Week 1, regardless of draft selection, have gone 11-24-1.

Those passers have combined for a 58.2% completion rate with more interceptions (43) than touchdowns (42).

First round picks have gone 8-18-1.

Last year, Caleb Williams did secure a win, but he, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix combined to complete just 60% of their passes for an average of 4.4 yards per pass attempt. None of them threw a touchdown.

To top everything off, Ward is tasked with a road game against a tough Denver defense that added more talent this offseason.

In 2024, Denver allowed 6.8 yards per attempt (fifth) and only a 3.6% touchdown rate (fifth) to passers.

Ward is a back-end QB2 to open the season.

Running Back

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