NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them.

Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. This is because of the large ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection.

The most likely outcome is only one of infinite outcomes.

When ownership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario.

The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups.


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Slate Breakdown

The New Orleans Saints are heading to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers as 4-point underdogs. The total is set at 46.

The Saints have the benefit of value on their side, but the Rams have four of the highest projections. They also are the most likely to surpass 30 points, as they’ve done often of late.

Kyren Williams has handled more volume than just about any back in the league and is somehow too cheap at $11,200. His projectable volume makes him worth essentially locking and makes this a 5-man slate.

While Derek Carr is cheaper to stack, he also lacks the ceiling the Rams have to offer.

Injury Notes

  • Kendre Miller – Ankle – Questionable

New Orleans Saints Offense

Tier 1 DFS Showdown Plays:

Chris Olave $8,600 –

Assuming Olave is playing at full health, he is far too cheap given his role. He projects similarly to Cooper Kupp and Alvin Kamara yet is over $2,000 less. Before the Week 13 injury, he was averaging over nine targets per game. In his last three full games, he averaged well over 100 yards. He has projectable volume with a high ceiling at a low salary.

Alvin Kamara $10,800 –

Kamara is the only other Saint with a heavy workload projection. He’s great to fit in any build as he can handle 14 carries or 14 targets depending on the gamescript. With Jamaal Williams active, Kamara is playing right around 50% of the snaps, but he’s still averaging over 20 touches per game.

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