NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them.

Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. This is because of the large ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection.

The most likely outcome is only one of infinite outcomes.

When ownership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario.

The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups.

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Slate Breakdown

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are heading to Buffalo to take on the Bills as 8.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 42.

The Bills are coming off yet another disappointing performance while the Buccaneers have hung tough in most of their outings. In fact, they’re averaging just 17 points per game.

While Tampa Bay has a great shot at covering, they are still expected to lose, which will result in a Buffalo-heavy optimal lineup.

5-1 builds will be overly popular, as they typically are on Bills slates. This offers the opportunity to feel more comfortable rolling out unique 3-3 lineups without getting duplicated.

Injury Notes

Chris Godwin – Knee – Probable
Baker Mayfield – Neck – Probable
Dawson Knox – Wrist – Out

Tampa Bay Bucs Offense

Tier 1 DFS Showdown Plays:

Baker Mayfield $9,200 –

Mayfield is too cheap relative to his projection, but his roster percentage will remain low because he’s difficult to fit with either Josh Allen or Stefon Diggs at captain. This isn’t a great spot to play Mayfield at captain, as he’d need to be stacked with a few Buccaneers pass catchers, but he can be played in the flex with Godwin at captain.

Chris Godwin $7,800 –

Godwin projects slightly worse than Evans, but his discounted price makes up for the disparity. He’s being targeted 25% of the time on an 80% snap share, but his box score production has not matched his opportunity. He has 10 target upside with an expected four quarters of negative gamescript.


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