Vikings vs Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon game.

Minnesota	Rank	@	Buffalo	Rank
6.5		Spread	-6.5
19.75		Implied Total	26.25
24.1	8	Points/Gm	27.5	3
20.1	12	Points All./Gm	14.8	1
63.9	12	Plays/Gm	64.5	10
64.1	22	Opp. Plays/Gm	59.9	5
5.3	17	Off. Yards/Play	6.5	1
5.7	22	Def. Yards/Play	5	8
36.79%	26	Rush%	37.79%	21
63.21%	7	Pass%	62.21%	12
40.94%	10	Opp. Rush %	40.71%	8
59.06%	23	Opp. Pass %	59.29%	25

Buffalo games are now 1-7 (12.5%) against the game total this season, the second-highest rate of games favoring the under.
78.7% of the drives against Minnesota have gained at least one first down or reached the end zone, the highest rate in the league.
Minnesota is producing a gain of 20 or more yards once every 23.2 plays, ahead of only the Steelers (24.1) and Giants (30.1).
The Bills are producing a gain of 20 or more yards every 13.2 plays, third in the league.
The Vikings have allowed just 19 red zone possessions, tied for the fewest in the league.
Minnesota is allowing a 78.9% red zone conversion rate (15-of-19) for touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
The Bills have turned the ball over on 17.1% of their possessions, the highest rate in the league.

Quarterback

Josh Allen: We will start the week off approaching things as if Allen will play this weekend, but this is an ominous situation at this stage of the week based on the information we have to this point. Allen is dealing with a UCL injury. He had a similar injury in 2018, which caused him to miss four games, so follow this situation closely as we move throughout the week.

If Allen is active then he is a QB1 play because of his legs at worst, even with the added volatility of his injury. If you have Allen rostered, you should of course make alternative plans and prepare for the worst news.

An absence for Allen would be massive. He has accounted for 92.0% (23-of-25) of the Buffalo offensive touchdowns, the highest rate in the league. The Bills' secondary support players outside of Stefon Diggs have come into question in recent weeks, so removing Allen’s mobility from the equation suddenly would add a ton of fragility to this offense.

Allen already was not playing his best football the past two games, completing 52% and 52.9% of his passes with four interceptions.

If Allen cannot play, then Case Keenum would be called into action against his former team. Keenum started two games with the Browns last year, closing as the QB18 (12.7 points) and QB21 (12.5 points). Keenum’s last extended run as a starter came back in 2019 with Washington. That year, Keenum was a QB1 in two of his eight starts.

Keenum is at least a viable backup paired with a system we buy into to be used in 2QB formats.

Minnesota is 21st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.424) and 22nd in passing points allowed per game (14.8).

Kirk Cousins: Cousins just keeps finding a way to get there. He closed last week as a QB1 again for the sixth time in eight games despite throwing for 6.6 yards per attempt and completing a season-low 55% of his passes. Cousins was aided by a heavy bye week and a low-scoring fantasy week in general.

This is a different task for him this week, however. Cousins has faced defenses that rank 26th, 25th, and 24th in passing points allowed per game over the past three weeks. The Bills are third in that department, allowing 9.8 passing points per game. The only quarterback to finish higher than QB20 so far against Buffalo has been Patrick Mahomes, leaving Cousins more in the QB2 area this week.

Running Back

Dalvin Cook: Cook found tough work as expected on the ground last week (17 carries for 47 yards) but was able to secure his first touchdown catch of the season to save his fantasy line.

After a lull in the target department Weeks 3-6 in which he saw just five total targets, Cook has six targets in each of the past two games.

We have also seen Cook dominate the touches in this backfield. He has handled 87.5%, 83.3%, and 86.4% of the backfield touches over the past three weeks. Improving his workload and increasing his passing game usage are two major hurdles to clear. Cook still has just two RB1 scoring weeks this season, but he has had a strong floor with just two games outside of the top 20 weekly scorers.

He will need to carry over that workload and target volume as a road underdog against a Buffalo defense allowing 4.07 YPC to backs (10th) and sporting a 62.7% success rate against running back carries (12th). That said, Buffalo is coming off allowing 141 yards on the ground to the Jets backfield last week while allowing 197 yards rushing to the Green Bay backfield the week prior.

Devin Singletary: Singletary had 12 touches for 48 yards on Sunday, but not much changed for his workload. He still handled 66.7% of the backfield touches and played 74% of the snaps, largely in line with his seasonal usage. James Cook logged 14 snaps while Nyheim Hines played just four snaps in his debut with the team. We should still bet on Hines pressing for more passing down work moving forward.

If that happens then Singletary’s floor will be lowered since he is fourth among all running backs in routes run per dropback, but Singletary is also a low-ceiling player in his own right. He does not have a rushing touchdown on the season and has double-digit fantasy points in three games. He is on the RB2/FLEX line.

Minnesota is third in the league allowing 3.76 YPC to running backs while they are in the middle of the pack in receiving points allowed per game to the position (8.8).

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson reeled in 7-of-13 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown last week. It was his first receiving score since Week 1 but was his fifth 100-yard game of the year. Since his 14-yard game in Week 3, Jefferson has posted at least 98 yards receiving in every game.

Jefferson had a season-high depth of target of 17.3 yards downfield after his previous high was 11.5 yards back in Week 1. That could have just been happenstance for one week, but the addition of T.J. Hockenson as an intermediate target also could have played a role in pushing Jefferson downfield more.

Jefferson has seen at least 25% of the team targets in every game but one this season. For the year, he is sixth among all wideouts in target share (29.5%), sixth in share of air yards (40.0%), and 10th in target rate per route run (26.1%). Jefferson camps out at the top of the receiver position.

The Bills have still been largely good defending the pass this season again, but they have been more vulnerable to wideouts this season compared to last year given all of the moving pieces they have had in their secondary due to injuries. They are 14th in yards allowed per target (7.8), and 17th in yards allowed per catch (12.6). Against opposing WR1 options, they are 18th in points allowed per game (14.6). They just came off allowing an 8-92-0 line to Garrett Wilson last week.

Stefon Diggs: Diggs would love to have Allen available for his first game against the Vikings since being traded to Buffalo. If not, then we can run with a double-revenge narrative with the Keenum-to-Diggs connection.

Even in a tough draw last week, Diggs pulled in 5-of-10 targets for 93 yards. The Bills have really leaned on Diggs as the season has progressed and their other wideouts have not fully stepped up. Diggs has seen over 30% of the team targets in each of the four games.

While we want a 100% Allen under center, Keenum is capable of pumping Diggs with targets in a matchup that is much softer than the one Diggs just faced.

Minnesota is allowing a 67.1% catch rate to opposing wide receivers (28th) since they play so much zone coverage. They are second in the league in zone coverage rate (82.3%). Diggs is averaging 3.14 yards per route run against zone coverage, which is second in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill.

The Vikings are also 24th in the league in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 options (16.2).

The status of Allen is the only rain cloud here, but Diggs is a WR1 option with a solid matchup even if we have to depend on Keenum.

Adam Thielen: Thielen has been a top-30 scorer in five of his past six games played. His ceiling has been limited since he has just two touchdowns with a game-high of 72 yards, but the floor has been here as he has received at least seven targets in each of his past seven games played.

With the Vikings adding a target in T.J. Hockenson last weekend, Theilen’s 17.9% target share did match a low mark over his past six games. That is something to keep tabs on for a player that has lived as a floor-based WR3.

Gabe Davis: The Gabe Coaster remained at a downturn last week as he was only able to pull in two of five targets for 33 yards. Through seven games, Daivs now has been a top-18 scorer three times (all with touchdowns) and has been the WR45 or lower in his other four games (all without touchdowns).

Davis does not have more than four receptions in any game this season.

Losing Allen would be a major blow to the spike week potential of Davis, but at least we know we aren’t going to lose playing time. Davis has a route on 94.5% of the dropbacks when available this season.

This is also a better matchup than squaring up with the best boundary defense in the league like last week. The Vikings are allowing a league-high 10.6 yards per target to opposing boundary wideouts, where Davis plays 87% of his snaps.

Davis is a touchdown-dependent WR3 regardless of quarterback, but if Allen does not play his odds at a spike week are reduced.

Isaiah McKenzie: McKenzie has 50 total receiving yards over his past four games, falling completely off the radar. He has two or fewer receptions in 5-of-7 games. If looking for some optimism, McKenzie did run a route on a season-high 69.1% of the dropbacks last week.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson made a solid impact in his debut. He played 91% of the snaps, catching all nine of his targets for 70 yards. Those nine targets were more than he had all but one game with Detroit this season while his 25.0% target rate per route run was his second-highest rate of the season.

That usage was encouraging to solidify a shaky floor Hockenson has held as a mid-TE1. While it would be awesome to see Hockenson elevate all the way up to an elite tight end option as part of his move to Minnesota, we will easily take it if he can just be a reliable TE1.

We will put that to the test right away as Buffalo is one of two teams that has yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing tight end while they are allowing just 5.9 yards per target to the position (sixth).

Dawson Knox: Sunday was more of the same for Knox as he secured 3-of-4 targets for 25 yards. Knox has just 183 yards receiving on the season, with four or fewer catches in every game played. He is a touchdown-or-bust TE2.

Minnesota is at least allowing an 8.2% touchdown rate to tight ends (26th) if chasing a score while they are also allowing 7.9 yards per target to the position (25th).

More Week 10 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: