In this edition of Win the Dynasty Waiver Wire, Curtis Patrick shares his top waiver targets for Week 11 in dynasty fantasy football leagues. You can find more of his work at RotoViz.com
There’s no way for me to reasonably know how much FAAB you and your league-mates have left this deep into the season. Until now, I’ve been using my own leagues as a guide, but over the past two weeks, I’ve seen a few teams run it down to just a few dollars remaining while others haven’t really been active on waivers at all. Moving forward, I won’t be including FAAB percentage recommendations. Instead, I’ll be simply listing players in order of preference or adding commentary regarding when to make a situational claim.
In dynasty, we must always grind the wire. For this article, I’ll be using FFPC roster percentages from their SuperFlex format.
Wayne Gallman (available in 46.4% of leagues)
I had to rub my eyes after seeing Gallman’s roster percentage in FFPC leagues. Among RBs, he trails only Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook in total PPR points scored since Week 7. Gallman has scored a TD in each game since then and per the NFL Stat Explorer he never posted fewer than 13.2 PPR over that stretch.
Devonta Freeman is on Injured Reserve until at least Week 14 and newly signed Alfred Morris seems to be locked into a fairly defined complementary role, having seen either eight or nine carries in each of his three games with the Giants. All of this sets Gallman up as a legit fantasy RB2 or better for the rest of the fantasy regular season and potentially beyond.
Now for the bad news: Gallman in on bye in Week 11. It’s tough to spend precious FAAB on players you can’t play yet this deep into the season, but given the landscape of the RB position, he’s probably one of the few players who could be worth that gamble. Shawn Siegele called Gallman a viable starter and ranked him as his RB32 rest-of-season, which is adjusted for him not playing in Week 11.
Looking to 2021, Gallman will be an unrestricted free agent so it’s tough to project future value and usage. If he returns to the Giants, he’s earned a chance to serve in a complementary role behind Saquon Barkley, but more importantly, we know he can be counted on as a spot starter any time Barkley misses time.
Salvon Ahmed (available in 94.3% of leagues)
Entering 2020 the question was which of two Miami running backs was going to be the better producer: Jordan Howard or Matt Breida? The correct answer, of course, was “secret options three and four!”
Myles Gaskin posted five top-24 RB fantasy weeks prior to his Week 8 injury. Salvon Ahmed picked up right where he left off, posting 16.0 PPR against the Rams in Week 10. Interestingly, this isn’t the first time Ahmed has spelled Gaskin on the football field; he was his primary backup at Washington in college as well.
Ahmed has posted positive rushing fantasy points over expectation in both games this season. Miami hasn’t opted to throw to him much yet; he’s seen just one target. However, if he holds this role moving forward I’d expect that to change. He corralled 50 receptions in three seasons at Washington despite playing RB2 to Gaskin’s RB1. Prior to injury, Gaskin saw a 16 percent team target market share, which was sixth-best in the NFL.
Though he was undrafted, athletically speaking, Ahmed compares favorably with a trio of former fantasy producers. Ahmad Bradshaw, Andre Ellington, and Mewelde Moore are a very encouraging group to have show up in his top-five query return in the NFL Combine Explorer.
The Dolphins cut Jordan Howard, a signal they’re comfortable moving forward with Ahmed for the time being and that Matt Breida must be looking healthier. Miami has a bottom-10 fantasy schedule for RBs over the next month, but the way the team is playing I don’t think Ahmed (or Breida) will get scripted out of any games.
*I think Gaskin is the most-talented back in Miami and if his injury caused his manager to drop him in your league, he’s worth a stash for when comes back, too.
Kalen Ballage (available in 73.2% of leagues)
So…last week I called Kalen Ballage a mirage. Since then, the Chargers placed Justin Jackson on Injured Reserve and gave Ballage another bell-cow game. You can’t win them all, and this is one I got wrong.
Lucky for you, not many other fantasy players bought in after his first big game either and he’s still available in nearly 75 percent of public leagues. Why should you claim him now? He’s posted back-to-back games with 15 carries and in Week 10 they started throwing him the ball, too (six targets).
Surprisingly, Ballage saw the fourth-most expected fantasy points of any RB over the past two weeks. We can’t ignore that kind of role, regardless of a player’s history.
A superior athlete, the metrics say Ballage is a shiftier version of former dynasty darling Karlos Williams, which is a huge compliment. He caught 82 balls in four seasons at Arizona State, including a career-best 44 receptions (and 15 percent target market share!) in 2016.
Perhaps Ballage will leverage this opportunity into getting another look somewhere in 2021, but if he returns to Los Angeles he’ll be buried behind Austin Ekeler. He’s best viewed as a short-term rental, but in deeper leagues, you should be able to stash him to see what happens this offseason.
Richie James (available in 73.5% of leagues)
The Week 10 sequel wasn’t as good as the 13-target outburst in Week 9, but James still saw five targets in a complementary role to Brandon Aiyuk.
James ranks second among all WRs in yards after the catch per reception (11.8) and has shown an ability to make plays at all levels of the field. The 49ers aren’t going to be a high-volume passing offense any time soon, but James will be a worthy streamer any time Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel sit.
Gabriel Davis (available in 85.5% of leagues)
A claim on Gabriel Davis is one based on the tried and true strategy of adding pass-catchers tied to elite fantasy QBs. Josh Allen is absolutely one of those QBs at this point. Additionally, if we’re going to roster players with low target volumes, it’s best if their air yards per target are high because when we start them as streamers there’s an increased chance for big plays. Davis checks that box, too.
He didn’t convert any of his targets in Week 10 against Arizona, but he did maintain his standing as a top-24 WR in air yards per target. John Brown suffered an ankle injury in Week 10, so Davis may be in line for a spot start on your squad as soon as Week 12 after the Bills bye if Brown misses time.