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Week 18 Prediction: Justin Jefferson More Than 91.5 Receiving Yards
In a must-win game, I can see Sam Darnold turning to his trusted WR1 early and often, particularly when considering these three factors:
- The trending poor pass defense of the Lions
- The Lions' defensive tendencies of blitzing and man coverage
- CB Carlton Davis’ absence for the Lions
Pulling from some nuggets via Rich Hribar, over their past five games, Detroit has allowed a league-high 9.1 YPA.
Specifically, they are allowing 8.9 YPA to WRs (#31).
Despite their issues and mounting injuries, Detroit is still playing aggressively.
Over the past five weeks, the Lions have been second in man coverage (43%) and third in blitz rate (37%).
When these teams played in Week 7, Detroit played man coverage on a league-high 54% of snaps and blitzed 42% of the time.
Jefferson has a team-high 31% target share with 3.2 yards per route run against man coverage.
He has 36% of the team targets with 4.1 yards per route against blitzes.
Simply put, the coverage and pressure schemes the Lions run should push Darnold to look Jefferson’s way early and often.
As such, it makes perfect sense that Jefferson’s last four games against an Aaron Glenn defense saw him deliver games of 11-223-0, 6-141-1, 12-192-1, and 7-81-1.
Those aren’t flukes. They’re inevitable.
Making matters worse, Detroit had Carlton Davis in that first matchup this season, and they do not in this game.
