The Penn State Nittany Lions and Notre Dame Fighting Irish are set to collide in the Orange Bowl, a CFP semifinal showdown with a trip to the national championship on the line. This historic rivalry promises another thrilling chapter with the all-time series tied at 9-9-1. Notre Dame enters as a 1-point favorite, backed by a defense that allows just 13.6 points per game, while Penn State counters with a standout offensive weapon in tight end Tyler Warren. Place your bets on this marquee matchup using the Bet365 bonus code SFA365 to claim $150 in bonus bets today.
- Spread: Bengals -2
- Total: O/U 48
- Defense Advantage: The Steelers are No. 2 on third down, only allowing conversions on 35.1% of attempts this season.
- Offensive Mismatch: Ja’Marr Chase is having a triple crown receiving season (117 catches for 1,612 yards and 16 touchdowns) and he already had a game-high 86 yards when these teams met earlier this season.
- Bet365 bonus code SFA365: Bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets and 50 spins.
- Risk Factors: Should the Ravens win the AFC North before this game kicks off, it’s possible the Steelers take their foot off the gas and limit snaps for key veterans.
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Penn State vs. Notre Dame Best Bet Prediction
Two historic football schools will be meeting for only the 20th time in the Orange Bowl this Thursday as the CFP resumes with a spot in the national championship game on the line. The all-time series is tied 9-9-1, so this will be a great matchup between two of the nation’s best defenses seeking their school’s first championship in quite some time.
The Irish (13-1) are a tiny 1-point favorite at Bet365. The total is set to 45 points, which would have gone under in both Notre Dame playoff games so far with wins of 27-17 over Indiana and 23-10 against Georgia last week. But Notre Dame could be the better value in this matchup where the spread is our Sharp Money focus in this Penn State vs. Notre Dame preview.
Will Notre Dame Run the Ball Effectively?
The Fighting Irish have one of the best rushing attacks in the nation between quarterback Riley Leonard (sixth among all quarterbacks with 32.5 rushing EPA this season) and running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. But they’ll have to deal with a stingy Penn State run defense.
- Notre Dame averages 217.5 rushing yards per game (No. 11) while Penn State’s defense is ranked No. 8, allowing 100.9 yards per game.
- Indiana had the No. 1 rush defense and still gave up a 98-yard touchdown run to Love in the playoffs, but it respectably held the Irish to 96 yards on their other 33 runs in that game.
- Penn State held Boise State’s outstanding running back, Ashton Jeanty, to 3.5 yards per carry (30 carries for 104 yards) in the Fiesta Bowl last week.
Notre Dame Is More Battle Tested
With college football’s new playoff format, there has been more talk than ever before about strength of schedule and quality wins. All four teams who had a bye week losing their first playoff game has only sparked more controversy about this format. But one could make the case that Notre Dame has been more impressive against better competition to this point:
- The Irish defeated Indiana in the first round, holding the No. 2 scoring team in the country to just 17 points.
- Notre Dame then defeated a recent two-time champion in Georgia, 23-10, taking care of a team that ranked No. 7 in Simple Rating System (SRS).
- Meanwhile, Penn State took care of SMU (11th in SRS) in a 38-10 game that may have exposed SMU as a less-worthy opponent.
- In the Fiesta Bowl, Penn State defeated Boise State, 31-14, and that team only ranks 27th in SRS this year as they were carried by their running back against lesser competition.
Offensive Edge: Notre Dame
These are two of the best teams in college football this season, but there is enough of an edge on both sides of the ball for Notre Dame to find a way to make enough plays to win this one over the Nittany Lions.
- Notre Dame forces 2.2 turnovers per game to lead all defenses and only allows 50.6% of passes to be caught, which also ranks No. 1.
- Notre Dame only allows 19.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends, so their secondary stars could prevent Tyler Warren from Penn State from dominating the game.
- Penn State is 8-7 ATS and Notre Dame is 11-2-1 ATS this season.
- Notre Dame has finished +10.5 points above the spread line, the third-best mark by any team in 2024.
Exclusive CFP Semi-final Betting Offer with the Bet365 Bonus Code: SFA365
New users can take advantage of an offering during the CFP playoffs by using Bet365 bonus code SFA365 to receive $150 in bonus bets and possibly bonus spins depending on your location.
Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets and 50 Spins
- Minimum deposit: $10
- Claim 50 spins on select casino games if applicable
- Bet $5 on a game like Notre Dame-Penn State with odds of -500 or greater
- Can bet on player props (Riley Leonard’s rushing yards) or game props like the first half under
- Once your bet settles, $150 in bonus bets will be added to your count
- Bonus bets expire 7 days after being awarded
How to Claim the Bonus Before Kickoff
- Download the Bet365 sportsbook app or visit mobile site
- Register your account using Bet365 bonus code “SFA365” where applicable
- Deposit a minimum of $10
- Your 50 spins will be available in the casino immediately if you live in PA or NJ
- Place a $5 bet on some of the things we talked about in our Penn State vs. Notre Dame preview:
- Consider the under 45 points for the game
- Bet on a touchdown scorer like Jeremiyah Love
- Have faith in the Irish to cover the spread
- After your bet settles, $150 in bonus bets will be available to use
⚠️ Terms and conditions apply. Must be 21+ and a new customer to participate. Please gamble responsibly.