The Cincinnati Bengals recently went through an offensive overhaul over the last two seasons. Before the 2016 season Hue Jackson left to take the head job with the Cleveland Browns and Ken Zampese, previously the team’s quarterback coach for the past 13 seasons, was left with the keys to the car. Last offseason also saw notable wide outs Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu leave the organization with little replacement in sight. Since then, the organization faltered to a 6-9-1 record and missed the playoffs for the first time in Andy Dalton’s career. After the season the Bengals lost their two best offensive linemen in free agency and nearly half of their offense had been turned over in the last two seasons.
To rectify that the Bengals front office spent significant draft capital on the offensive skill positions, using three of their top-five picks on John Ross, Joe Mixon, and Josh Malone. Can these three players reshape the offensive side of the ball enough to bring Cincinnati back to the playoffs? Well, let’s examine how they fit into this offense and help reshape it and affect the player’s remaining such as A.J. Green and Andy Dalton.
OFFENSIVE SCHEME
Setting the stage for the Bengals is their offensive philosophy. Over the last three seasons prior to last year, the Bengals averaged 25 points a game, scoring 26.2 in 2015. In 2016, that fell to just 20.3 points per game as both A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert suffered through injuries at different points in the season. Zampese picked up the pace last season running 1,050 plays compared to an average of 1,011 plays over the previous two seasons. The Bengals have run the ball more than league average over the last three seasons, averaging 469 run plays over the last three seasons for a run rate of nearly 46%. Cincinnati was about league average running 62% of their plays out of the shotgun in 2016. When they lined up under center, the offense was predictable, running the ball on 76% of plays, the third highest rate in the league. While in shotgun the team was much closer to league average, but called a passing play 79% of the time. Cincinnati should hope adding an effective spread runner like Joe Mixon makes their offense more multiple in terms of play calling. Like most teams in the league Marvin Lewis’ team deployed the 11 set most often, deploying it 71% of the time. The second most used offensive formation was the 12 set which they deployed 20% of the time.
RUNNING BACKS
Joe Mixon joins a backfield with Jeremy Hill, who has seen staggering consistency of carries over his first three seasons in the league finishing 222, 223, and 222 carries, and Gio Bernard who is returning from a torn ACL suffered in Week 11 last season. Jeremy Hill has faltered since an impressive rookie season, but has been an effective redzone back. Gio Bernard, should he return fully healthy brings strength in the receiving game as well as a change of pace, when teams around the league say they want a thunder and lighting approach at running back, the Bengals used to be one everyone emulated. Now the infusion of Joe Mixon provides a mix of both players, allowing them to do and call more when he is on the field. Mixon is a 228 pound runner with 4.45 speed and wide receiver like hands. The guy can literally do everything that an NFL team looks for, likely cutting into the workload of each running back currently on the roster. Mixon’s most important job will be increasing the rushing success on first down after Hill stammered to 393 yards on 131 carries and just four runs of ten yards or more. Hill also really struggled to get around the edges, averaging just 1.65 yards per carry on the edges. Hill has proven to be an effective redzone rusher totaling 25 rushing touchdowns on 113 carries for 309 yards inside the 20 since entering the league, so Hill could retain a presence as the teams short-yardage goalline back.
In the receiving game, Gio has a clear edge over Hill, but will have his work cut out for him fending off Mixon, who averaged 13.8 yards per reception on 65 catches in his college career. The Bengals have targeted their running backs in the pass game on 19.3% of passes over the last three years, and should hover around league average ball distribution should everyone be healthy. 115-125 targets is not outside of the realm of possibilities for Gio and Joe to split in their first season as a tandem. Much like the Panthers, if the Bengals can be creative in their play calling, by getting different combinations of these backs on the field at the same time, this offense can prove to be one of the most dynamic in the NFL.
RUNNING BACK PROJECTIONS
Unfortunately for those in fantasy leagues, this looks like a split backfield, and without an injury or a surprise rise to power, each running back will likely have a role.
Jeremy Hill: 137 rushes 535 yards and eight rushing touchdowns, seven receptions on 12 targets for 54 yards and zero touchdowns.
Gio Bernard: 115 rushes for 511 yards and two rushing touchdowns, 42 receptions on 55 targets for 335 yards and two touchdowns.
Joe Mixon: 141 rushes for 647 yards and four touchdowns, 37 receptions on 49 targets for 319 yards and two touchdowns.
WIDE RECEIVERS
A.J. Green is one of the top-five wide receivers in the league, and a player with a multitude of skillsets as he can win quickly with his precise route running or down the field with long speed and supreme body control when attacking the football in the air. Since entering the league back in 2011, Green has averaged nearly 9.5 targets per game and will continue to be the focal point of the passing game as he enters his prime years. Green will get the benefit of playing with the premier lid lifter of the 2017 Draft, who you may have heard, set the combine record in the 40 yard dash (since the league began using electronic timing) in Indianapolis. Green should be expected to gobble up between 26-30% percent of the target share again this season.
The second most targeted wide receiver in the Bengals offense since A.J. green has entered the league has averaged 95 targets a season, with a low of 80 coming in 2012 and 2013, and a high of 107 set by Brandon LaFell last year, albeit with Green missing some time. John Ross could step in and be the immediate number two and soak up those targets, but it is more likely that the remaining wide receiver targets are distributed at a fairly even rate between the recently re-signed LaFell, second year Tyler Boyd, and the aforementioned Ross. Each receiver is of a different archetype and affects the game in different ways, so expect to see some plays designed for each as the season opens. The Bengals struggled with their passes to the deep right, and hopefully the injection of John Ross can help them get back to their 2015 levels in which they were one of the best deep passing teams in the league. All this and not even a mention of Josh Malone who some believe was one of the more underrated receivers in this years draft. Cincinnati’s crew of wide receivers looks much deeper and improved from where they were just a few weeks ago.
WIDE RECEIVER PROJECTIONS:
A.J. Green: 93 receptions on 149 targets for 1,262 yards and eight touchdowns.
John Ross: 41 receptions on 75 targets for 702 yards and four touchdowns.
Tyler Boyd: 45 reception on 71 targets for 465 yards and three touchdowns.
TIGHT ENDS
Tyler Eifert is one of the best pass catching tight ends in the league when healthy, unfortunately for Bengal fans that just hasn’t happened very much in his career. Eifert has shown to be a redzone machine over the last two seasons with 18 touchdowns over his last 21 games played. Eifert should continue to have a big role in the redzone, but his overall target share seems unlikely to cross 17% on his own. Over the last three seasons, the Bengals have targeted their tight end on 19.4% of passing attempts. Eifert will be a touchdown dependent player because of his lack of projectable targets on a weekly basis. With all the new additions to the passing game it is also unlikely that Eifert spends a lot of time in the slot, which he has over the previous two seasons. The depth at tight end features raw players like Tyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah who did most of his damage last season out of the slot as well.
TIGHT END PROJECTIONS
Tyler Eifert: 60 receptions on 83 targets for 637 yards and eight touchdowns.
QUARTERBACK
Finally we reach the apex, and the player who may be the most excited of any Bengal after seeing how his team spent the final days in April, Andy Dalton. Andy looks primed to be an undervalued asset in fantasy leagues with all the talent around him this season. Dalton is in line for some positive touchdown regression as he posted the lowest touchdown rate of his career. With all the new weapons and the dimensions they bring to this offense, Dalton could be in store for the most efficient season of his career. With a burner like Ross in the fold and a dynamic runner like Mixon now in the fold, the Bengals can now stretch the field horizontally as well as vertically, making defenders have to respect the offense from sideline to sideline.
Dalton passed for the second most yards of his career and has lowered his interception percentage to one of best levels in the NFL over the last two seasons. The Red Rifle also brings a small run threat to the game that he has showcased on read option plays while in the NFL and his college system featured heavy use of the inverted veer, so Zampese can be creative in his boot actions and run scheme with Dalton under center. While the players on the perimeter look much improved the guys in the trenches look noticeably worse since the end of last season. Dalton took the second most sacks of his career last season as the offensive line allowed 41 sacks. Should Dalton get heat like this or even greater again is when we will see the deficiencies in his game, Dalton suffers the most when not afforded a clean pocket.
QUARTERBACK PROJECTIONS
Andy Dalton: 355 completions on 547 attempts for 4,017 yards and a touchdown to interception ratio of 29 to 13, 63 rush attempts for 153 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
The Bengals offense has gone through a face lift over the last two seasons and it is now in the hands of Ken Zampese to bring this offense together. Cincinnati has the players to mix and match personnel and attack a defense’s weakness much like the Patriots do on a weekly basis. A spread quick passing game with deep passing elements to show off John Ross’ and A.J. Green’s vertical pass catching will provide a fun team to watch on Sunday’s. Joe Mixon’s ability to run out of the shotgun and motion out to wide receiver at a moment’s notice makes this offense much more multiple than they were during the 2016 season. With the offensive line the biggest question mark as it pertains to this offense, expect a number of quick passes to be drawn up for their playmakers in order to keep the heat off Dalton. With an improvement scoring touchdowns in the redzone, Cincinnati could again put a top-10 offense on the field.
About the author: Anthony Staggs was crowned co-winner of the Sharp Football Stats 2017 Writing Contest. He will share articles featuring his analysis throughout the 2017 NFL season.
