The New York Giants were one loss away from drafting Cameron Ward with the No. 1 overall pick.
Instead, they beat the Colts in Week 17, lost the top pick, and scrambled through chaos just to draft Jaxson Dart at No. 25.
Giants fans *booed* the win.
Ownership got testy.
And now the team enters 2025 walking a tightrope — between veteran survival and rookie quarterback development — all while facing the NFL’s hardest schedule.
It will be interesting to see how Brian Daboll uses Dart behind Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston.
Daboll says he’ll be sprinkled in with surprise QB1 reps, but this is Wilson’s team to start — and maybe for a while.
So what can the Giants expect from Russ?
Turns out…if you keep him clean, he was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL last year.
On early downs from a clean pocket, Wilson ranked:
#8 in the entire NFL in EPA per attempt
#1 in avoiding bust plays of -1 EPA or worse
#1 in boom-to-bust ratio (19:1)
Compare that to Daniel Jones and the other Giants QBs over the past two years:
#28 in EPA
#29 in yards per attempt
#30 in big plays
Wilson can flat-out outperform what the Giants have previously done…if he’s protected.
But that’s a big if.
New York’s offensive line was graded 29th last year, yet it’s the third-most expensive line in the NFL in 2025.
They ranked:
#26 in pass block win rate
#28 in pressure rate allowed
They did not add any new starters.
That’s a problem because Wilson ranked 38th in EPA when pressured.
Here’s the good news: Daboll’s scheme fits Wilson better than the schemes in Pittsburgh or Denver did.
Over the last two years, Wilson played on offenses that used three wide receivers at a bottom-tier rate.
Daboll's offense has used 3+ WR sets 69% of the time, the fifth most in the NFL.
In those sets, Wilson ranks top 10 in nearly every QB stat.
Over the last two years, Wilson played on offenses that targeted WRs at the #29 highest rate at most.
Daboll's offense has targeted wide receivers on 60% of early-down passes — #4 in NFL.
Wilson is top 10 in EPA, touchdown rate, and yards per attempt when throwing to WRs
Daboll’s system also pushes the ball outside the numbers, where Wilson thrives.
But here’s where things get rough — fast.
The Giants open the season facing five top-seven pass defenses in their first eight games:
Week 1: Commanders (#6)
Week 3: Chiefs (#7)
Week 4: Chargers (#3)
Week 6 & 8: Eagles (#2)
Week 7: Broncos (#1)
It is, statistically, the hardest pass defense stretch to open a season in the NFL.
And the full schedule?
#1 toughest based on Vegas win totals
#2 toughest based on efficiency
They are underdogs in 16 of 17 games.
If the Giants want to compete, three things must change:
1. Start faster
They ranked dead last in first-quarter scoring in both 2022 and 2023… and 30th in 2024.
They’ve trailed at halftime in 33 games over the past three years — more than any team.
2. Convert in the red zone
They ranked last in red zone efficiency each of the last two years.
That’s inexcusable.
3. Protect the quarterback
If Russ is upright, he can outperform expectations.
If not, this offense stalls just like it did with Daniel Jones
If Wilson holds up, the Giants may steal some wins.
If Dart develops on the sideline, they can sell the future.
But the leash is short, and ownership is watching.
This is a pressure cooker season — and New York better get cooking fast.
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