What if I told you the 2024 Chiefs were 4 points and a blocked kick away from being 4–13?
And no, that’s not hyperbole.
Kansas City went a perfect 11–0 in one-score games last season.
Flip every one of those results — wins become losses, losses become wins — and the league’s most decorated team becomes tied for the worst record in football.
Instead, the Chiefs went 15–2 and made the Super Bowl.
And still, I’d argue they looked more fragile than ever before in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Let’s break down why 2025 could be the year the dynasty starts to wobble — or proves it can evolve.
First, credit where it’s due: 15 wins, most in franchise history. Best record in the league. Mahomes. Reid. Another AFC crown.
But the signs of slippage were everywhere — if you looked closely.
Start with explosiveness.
The 2024 Chiefs were the least explosive offense in the NFL. Dead last in explosive play rate.
Dead last in throws 15+ yards downfield.
The old Chiefs hunted big plays. These Chiefs played scared.
They threw behind the line of scrimmage more than any team in the past five years — second-most out of 192 team seasons since 2019.
Mahomes had the second-fastest release time in the NFL. But that’s not because he was carving teams up deep. It’s because this offense was built to survive, not dominate.
And survive they did — with surgical precision on third downs.
Kansas City ranked #2 in third-down conversion rate, and if you remove Week 18’s meaningless game? They hit 50% on third downs — a mark only eight offenses have reached since 2000.
But here’s the problem: if you’re not winning on early downs, and you’re not explosive…being perfect on third down becomes your lifeline.
And lifelines aren’t sustainable.
On early downs? The Chiefs fell to average or below average in every efficiency stat: EPA, yards per play, and first down rate.
They were outside the top 20 in early down explosiveness. That’s not just a tweak — that’s an identity crisis.
Now pair that with their red zone struggles.
Despite ranking #2 in drives reaching the red zone, they converted those into touchdowns just 53.8% of the time — their lowest mark under Andy Reid. Right behind the Colts. Right ahead of the Titans.
For a team that doesn’t score from distance anymore, that red zone inefficiency is a huge red flag.
And then there’s Travis Kelce.
Still clutch. Still smart. But the YAC — yards after catch — has fallen off a cliff.
- 2021: 6.2 YAC/reception
2024: 3.8
Air yards per target? Dropping every year. Yards per catch? Down from 12.2 to 8.5.
He’s 36 now. He can’t be the engine anymore. But the Chiefs didn’t add a clear WR1 either — unless Jalen Royals in Round 4 turns out to be something special.
So what does all this mean for 2025?
It means Kansas City needs to evolve.
They can't “run it back” with the same identity and expect 15 wins again. The margins were razor-thin last year. They won with elite situational football, but they abandoned what made them dangerous — the ability to strike quickly and unpredictably.
If they stick with dink-and-dunk and hope for perfect execution on third down again? Regression is coming.
But if they reinvent themselves — like the 2007 Patriots did after a two-year post-title lull — Mahomes still gives them the ceiling to win it all.
The question isn't whether the Chiefs will be good.
The question is whether they’ll be great. If they adapt and improve in the margins, they'll find themselves on another deep playoff run, and the sky is the limit.
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