This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into a fun non-conference showdown between Texas A&M and Notre Dame in South Bend.
Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame, current line:
Texas A&M at Notre Dame Best Bet Prediction:
This is a large spread for Notre Dame to cover against a good Aggies offense, so let's bet Texas A&M against the spread.
- Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame, current line: Texas A&M +6.5
» Bet it now: Texas A&M +6.5 points
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When Texas A&M is on Offense
Texas A&M is likely to utilize a run-heavy offensive scheme under coordinator Collin Klein, who is in his second year in that role after previously calling plays at his alma mater, Kansas State.
Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, the Aggies had a pass rate 1.5% below expected last year, which was in line with most of Klein’s offenses with the Wildcats.
Through two games this year, however, Texas A&M’s pass rate is 14% above expected.
Quarterback Marcel Reed has thrived in this pass-heavy scheme, throwing for over 500 yards and 7 touchdowns through the Aggies' first two games against Utah State and UTSA.
Another new development in the offense is the way in which A&M is using Reed in the passing game.
Check out the rate at which Reed has taken a traditional dropback (three or more steps), via Sports Info Solutions:
- 2024 – 71% (fourth highest in FBS)
- 2025 – 45%
Last year’s offense was initially designed for the less athletic Conner Weigman, who started for the Aggies against Notre Dame last September.
This could explain the shift, as Klein may have been able to adjust the offense during the offseason to better fit Reed’s athletic traits.
The shift to non-traditional dropbacks means Reed is getting rid of the ball more quickly this season, and it’s having a positive effect on the Aggie offense.
Take a look at Reed’s numbers this season by dropback type, via Sports Info Solutions:
Dropback Type Comp % Yds/Att Pressure Rate Sack Rate Traditional 48% 7.3 30% 3% Non-Traditional 78% 8.8 5% 0%
Relying on quicker dropback types is a great way to neutralize a strong pass rush like Notre Dame's.
Check out the Irish’s pressure rate numbers in 2024 based on dropback type:
- Traditional: 42%, ranked 27th
- Non-traditional: 28%, ranked 20th
Although Notre Dame was among the best at generating quick pressure against non-traditional dropbacks, there is still a steep drop in production.
Perhaps we should have seen this shift coming due to A&M’s offseason additions.
The Aggies added two starting receivers from the portal: KC Concepcion (5-foot-10, 190 pounds) from NC State and Mario Craver (5-foot-9, 165 pounds) from Mississippi State.
The two undersized speedsters are ideal for this type of offense.
Through two games, Craver is averaging 10.5 yards after catch per reception while Concepcion is averaging 8.7.
Now compare that to the YAC per reception among the Aggies' leading receivers a season ago:
- Noah Thomas: 6.4
- Jabre Barber: 4.5
- Jahdae Walker: 3.3
Leaning on the YAC production of Carver and Concepcion is a good strategy against Notre Dame, as it’s tough to throw downfield against the Irish secondary.
Outside the red zone, opponents completed just 29% of their passes at 15 or more yards downfield against Notre Dame last year.
In the season opener, the Irish held Miami quarterback Carson Beck to 1 of 7 at that depth.
Finding success in the run game might be more challenging for Texas A&M, as its scheme plays into what Notre Dame does best on defense.
The Aggies tend to run the ball from heavier formations 一 67% of handoffs have occurred in 12 personnel this year, per Sports Info Solutions.
Looking back at data from last season, A&M running backs carried the ball into a stacked box 54.3% of the time, above the FBS average of 49.6%.
That’s exactly the type of offense Notre Dame wants to face, as the Irish stacked the box at a rate 18% above expected last year, based on opponent-adjusted data.
In the season opener, Notre Dame allowed 131 yards on the ground to Miami running backs, but check out the breakdown by box type per Sports Info Solutions:
- Light box: 16 attempts, 75 yards, 4.7 yards/attempt
- Stacked box: 19 attempts, 56 yards, 2.9 yards/attempt
Reed is also going to be a factor in the run game, which could be the biggest difference in the matchup between this year and last.
Excluding sacks, Reed leads the Aggies with 17 carries for 112 yards through two games.
Notre Dame defended mobile quarterbacks relatively well last year. Based on opponent-adjusted data, the Irish ranked 46th in yards allowed to quarterbacks on the ground.
However, the switch from Weigman to Reed certainly adds a new wrinkle to A&M’s offense that the Irish did not have to defend in last year’s season opening victory in College Station.
When Notre Dame is on Offense
Notre Dame runs a relatively balanced offense under coordinator Mike Denbrock, but we’re still learning what this version of the Irish offense will look like as they have played just one game.
According to Campus2Canton, the Irish threw the ball at a rate 0.5% above expected based on situational data in 2024.
This balanced offensive attack probably came at the direction of the defensive-minded Marcus Freeman.
The Irish had a pass rate 1.2% below expected during his first two seasons at the helm.
However, Denbrock has traditionally been a pass-heavy playcaller.
During Denbrock’s two seasons at LSU before joining the Irish, his team had a pass rate 8.8% above expected.
The Irish’s season opener against Miami didn’t provide much insight due to the game script.
Notre Dame quarterback C.J. Carr dropped back to pass 59% of the time, but the Irish were trailing for most of the game.
Though Denbrock probably wants to open up the offense at some point, the inexperience of the redshirt-freshman Carr likely forces him to establish the run early in the game.
Based on 2024 opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, the Irish might hold an edge in the ground game:
- Notre Dame: ranked 14th in yards before contact
- Texas A&M: ranked 35th in yards before contact allowed
However, Notre Dame’s banged-up offensive line struggled against Miami as Irish running backs saw 0.9 yards before contact per attempt
Irish running backs only generated fewer yards before contact in one contest last season (the playoff matchup with Indiana).
These struggles were at least partially due to Miami’s improved run defense, but Notre Dame’s offensive line was likely a factor as well.
The Irish are playing without the injured Charles Jagusah, who was expected to be Notre Dame's right guard.
Without Jagusah, Notre Dame used both Guerby Lambert and Sullivan Absher at right guard and picked up -3 yards on 5 designed rush attempts when running to their gap assignment, per Sports Info Solutions.
Expanding the scope of the run direction slightly, Irish running backs gained 8.8 yards per attempt when running to the left side of the offensive line against Miami compared to 3.3 yards per carry to the right side.
Fortunately for the Irish, there are some concerns with the Aggies' defensive line.
Against Utah State and UTSA, Texas A&M allowed 1.9 yards before contact per attempt 一 not awful, but less dominant than you would like against lesser competition.
Texas A&M is replacing the majority of its defensive line, most notably Nic Scourton, Shemar Turner, and Shemar Stewart, who were all first or second-round NFL draft picks.
So it’s certainly possible that the Aggie defense is not up for the challenge of containing Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.
That said, this isn’t an inexperienced Aggies defensive line.
Albert Regis returns as a starter from last year’s squad, and portal additions Tyler Onyedim (Iowa State) and T.J. Searcy (Florida) both have starting experience.
Perhaps the Aggies just needed a few warm-up contests for this unit to fully jell.
In the passing game, Notre Dame must protect Carr to move the ball against this Aggies defense.
Head coach Mike Elko and defensive coordinator Jay Bateman would prefer not to blitz. The Aggies ranked 111th in blitz rate a season ago per Sports Info Solutions.
That was possible last year, however, due to the NFL talent on the defensive line.
On non-blitzes, A&M generated a 32% pressure rate, ranked 21st in the FBS.
So far this year, the Aggies appear capable of replicating that success, with a 40% pressure rate generated on non-blitzes, though the level-of-competition caveat applies.
Cashius Howell, a rotation player on the edge last year and a former starter at Bowling Green, has been the star of the unit with a 19.4% pressure rate generated.
If the Aggies can replicate last year’s production, that’s problematic for Notre Dame’s shaky pass protection unit.
The Irish allowed a 29% pressure rate on non-blitzes last year, ranked 88th, and ranked just 51st in opponent-adjusted pressure rate overall, per Sports Info Solutions.
In the season opener, the Irish allowed a highly concerning 52% pressure rate on non-blitzes against the Hurricanes.
It’s worth noting, however, that left tackle Anthonie Knapp had a brutal game and had to leave the field at one point due to cramping.
With temperatures expected in the 70s in South Bend on Saturday night, Knapp should bounce back.
Final Thoughts on Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Best Bets
Although Notre Dame won this matchup 23-13 in College Station last year, improved quarterback play should allow the Aggies to be more competitive 一 take the points and play Texas A&M against the spread.
Texas A&M’s offense appears to be humming along in midseason form through the first two weeks, averaging 6.9 yards per play.
That rate won’t continue against a good Notre Dame defense, but Reed’s athleticism should cause enough problems to keep this close, if not pull off the outright upset.
