Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Chargers taking on the Giants and the Panthers traveling to New England.
Week 4 Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers Team Total Over 24.5 Points (-112)
The Chargers hung 27 points on the Chiefs in Brazil in Week 1, but they haven’t cleared their team total of 24.5 points for this week in two subsequent contests, scoring 20 against the Raiders in Las Vegas on Monday Night Football in Week 2 and 23 at home against the Broncos in Week 3.
Still, Los Angeles’s offense has been rock-solid, and Justin Herbert has played at a high level this season.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Chargers are 10th in yards per play (5.5) and tied for 14th in scoring offense (23.3 points per game).
Their underlying data is even better.
According to Sumer Sports, the Chargers are tied for ninth in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.05) and eighth in success rate (45.18%).
Furthermore, the offense is flowing through Herbert. Per nfelo, the Chargers have an NFL-high 8.8% pass rate over expectations (PROE) this season.
Herbert is rewarding head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman for their faith in him.
Herbert is fifth in EPA this season.
In addition, among 34 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks this year, Herbert has Pro Football Focus’s (PFF’s) eighth-highest passing grade.
Herbert and the Chargers shouldn’t find the sledding tough against the Giants.
Big Blue is tied for the ninth-most yards per play (5.7) allowed this year, and they’ve permitted the ninth-most points per game (27.7).
The advanced metrics for the G-Men’s defense are even more damning.
They’ve allowed the third-most EPA per play (0.13) and the fourth-highest success rate (47.91%).
The Chargers should have no problem marching up and down the field against New York’s defense.
Can the Giants push back enough for the Chargers to clear 24.5 points this week? They might be able to.
Yet, even if the Giants don’t put up much of a fight, they’ll likely at least do it quickly after promoting rookie Jaxson Dart to starting quarterback duties.
Josh Norris and Hayden Winks from Underdog Fantasy discussed the Giants playing more aggressively and faster with Dart in the preseason on their most recent Stats versus Film episode.
If Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka call a fast and aggressive offense with Dart at the helm, there are multiple positive avenues for the Chargers to score points.
First, Dart can push them by scoring points, forcing the Chargers to keep their foot on the accelerator.
Second, he could turn the ball over on downs quickly. Therefore, the Giants wouldn’t use a lot of clock before giving the ball back to the Chargers.
Third, a rookie quarterback playing fast and aggressively in his first professional start could turn the ball over against Jesse Minter’s defense, potentially awarding the Chargers short fields and more quick-scoring opportunities.
Any of those three outcomes would help the Chargers exceed 24.5 points.
I expect Los Angeles to go over their team total, and the -112 line for over 24.5 points at DraftKings Sportsbook is the best value across sportsbooks since it is 1 point lower than at some other sites.
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Week 4 Prediction: Carolina Panthers Team Total Under 18.5 Points (-105)
The Panthers have cleared 18.5 points in back-to-back games after scoring only 10 in Jacksonville in a Week 1 loss.
Conversely, the Patriots have surrendered more than 18.5 points in all three games this season, permitting 20 to the Raiders at home in Week 1, 27 to the Dolphins in Miami in Week 2, and 21 to the Steelers in New England in Week 3.
Expecting the Patriots to deliver their best defensive performance of the year and hold the Panthers to fewer than 18.5 points might feel ambitious.
However, there are contextual and statistical reasons to think Carolina won’t clear 18.5 points this week.
First, the injury factors should work in New England’s favor.
Lockdown stud cornerback Christian Gonzalez hasn’t suited up for the Patriots yet this season.
Gonzalez didn’t practice at all with a hamstring injury through the first two weeks of the season.
However, he was a limited participant in every practice last week before ultimately getting ruled out, and he’s started this week with a limited participation designation.
Among 88 cornerbacks with at least 350 coverage snaps last season, Gonzalez had PFF’s 10th-highest coverage grade and allowed the fourth-lowest quarterback rating (70.5) on targets in his direction.
Again, Gonzalez is a game-changing talent.
Meanwhile, the Panthers are the walking wounded.
Carolina’s starting center, Austin Corbett, and starting guard, Rob Hunt, were placed on injured reserve after they suffered significant injuries in Week 2.
Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders is week-to-week with a high-ankle sprain, and their talented rookie No. 1 wideout Tetairoa McMillan was held out of practice on Wednesday with a calf injury.
Bryce Young isn’t a talent-lifting quarterback, and his offensive linemen dropped like flies.
Additionally, his pass-catching weapons might be depleted or have their performance diminished by injuries this week.
Even if T-Mac getting held out of practice was precautionary, he’d have his hands full with Gonzalez in coverage if he were 100% healthy, and he might be less than completely healthy.
Circling back to Young, he’s tied for 26th in EPA (-1) this season. Young’s PFF passing grade also ranks 22nd out of 34 passers with at least 40 dropbacks this season.
Unsurprisingly, Young’s lousy play has impacted the quality of Carolina’s offense.
They’re 30th in yards per play (4.3), tied for 19th in scoring offense (20.7 points per game), tied for 23rd in EPA per play (-0.08), and 18th in success rate (43.01%).
The Patriots surrendered only 21 points to the Steelers last week, despite the offense turning the ball over 5 times and Drake Maye taking 5 sacks.
Barring another 5-turnover performance from New England’s offense, the defense should hold the Panthers under 18.5 points at Gillette Stadium.
