Week 5 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Los Angeles Rams host the San Francisco 49ers.
Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 5, starting with a player in that Thursday night game.
Week 5 Prediction: Puka Nacua Over 95.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Through the first four weeks of the NFL season, Nacua leads the league in receiving yards with 503.
He’s averaging 125.8 receiving yards per game, which, of course, also leads the league.
Facing the 49ers for the fourth time in his career, he’ll face a defense that plays Cover 3 on 40% of opposing quarterback dropbacks.
This season, Nacua leads the NFL in receiving yards versus Cover 3 with 207.
Not only does Nacua lead the NFL in receiving yards, receiving yards after the catch, and yards per game, but he also leads his team in target share by more than 11% at 37.6%.
So far this season, he’s had 96 yards or more in three of four games.
Over his career, he’s faced the 49ers three times, including once at home.
In that game, which was Week 2 of the 2023 season (and his rookie season), he caught 15 passes for 157 yards.
In his most recent game against the 49ers, Nacua caught 7 passes for 97 yards.
That game is especially interesting as it was also played on Thursday Night Football.
Nacua boasts a massive team target share, leads the NFL in receiving yards and yards after the catch, and has gone above this number three times this season.
The potential downside is that the Rams are 7-point favorites against a fairly injured 49ers squad, and they could take a lead, which could cause the passing game to take a backseat.
Week 5 Prediction: Daniel Jones Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Through the first four weeks of this season, Jones has thrown for 228 yards or more in every game.
On the higher end, he hit 316 yards in Week 2 against the Denver Broncos.
His lowest passing total, 228 yards, came in a 21-point blowout win against the Tennessee Titans.
To date, he’s completing 71.9% of his passes for 1,078 yards (8.9 yards per attempt), 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
Where he’s shone plenty this season is against Cover 3, completing, coincidentally, 71.9% of his passes (23 of 32) and averaging 11.3 yards per attempt.
Well, guess what? The Raiders play that coverage more than any other scheme, and it’s not close, as about 54% of opposing quarterbacks see it when they drop back to pass versus them.
In Week 4, Jones threw for 262 yards against the Rams, and guess what they primarily play?
You guessed it: Cover 3.
There is one unique difference, here, though: The Raiders don’t pressure opposing quarterbacks nearly the same amount as the Rams.
The Raiders are inside the bottom-third of the NFL in pressures with 49.
The Colts are tied for eighth in the fewest pressures allowed with 50.
This is notable because, against pressure, Jones is completing just 64.1% of his passes.
When he’s kept clean, though, he’s completing 75.6% of his passes (79.3% adjusted completion rate).
The Raiders have allowed 228 passing yards or more in two games this season.
The games they fell short in were against the Marcus Mariota-led Washington Commanders and an up-and-down Chicago Bears offense.
Not only that, but the Raiders could be without one of their starting cornerbacks as Eric Stokes left Week 4 early due to a knee injury.
Now, let’s talk about what could go wrong.
What could go wrong is that, as 7-point home favourites, the Colts may lean more heavily on their run game.
After all, they have the current leader in rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor.
While the Raiders haven’t exactly been a brick wall against the run, they allow 17.5 carries for 74 yards (4.2 yards per carry) and 0.75 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.
The rush attempts and yards are both inside the bottom 10 in the NFL.
As for a cherry on top, Jones' best downfield threat, wide receiver Alec Pierce (19 yards per catch), should be back out there in Week 5 after practicing on Wednesday.
Take the over at 227.5.
Week 5 Prediction: Spencer Rattler Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-112)
The story with Rattler all season has been that he throws a bunch, but the ball doesn’t move down the field at all.
This season, he’s fourth in the NFL in attempts (146) but averages 5.2 yards per attempt (fourth-lowest).
Here are the only players he has a higher yards per attempt average than: Joe Flacco, who’s now benched (5.1), and Titans rookie Cam Ward (4.9).
The line for this home game against the Giants is 200.5 passing yards, and I’m taking the under.
The Giants play Cover 1 more than any other team.
Against Cover 1 this season, Rattler has completed just 57.1% of his throws for 122 yards and 5.8 yards per attempt.
Dating back to last season, his completion percentage versus Cover 1 is 47.1%, with a 4.5 yards per attempt.
Looking at all four games, he’s gone above 5.6 yards per attempt in just one of them. He averaged 6.1 yards per attempt in Week 2 against the San Francisco 49ers.
This season, he’s had 201 yards or more in three games, but let’s examine the context:
- Week 1: 214 passing yards on 46 attempts.
- Week 2: 207 passing yards on 34 attempts.
- Week 3: 218 passing yards on 39 attempts.
- Week 4: 126 passing yards on 27 attempts.
The Saints would be best suited to run the ball in this game.
The Giants are allowing 116.3 rushing yards (fourth), 6.0 yards per carry (second), and 1.25 rushing touchdowns (second) per game to opposing running backs.
To pile on a bit more, the Giants are fifth in the NFL in pressures with 65.
Against pressure this season, Rattler is completing 58.1% of his passes for 201 yards and 4.7 yards per attempt.
Look for the Saints to run the ball plenty and for Rattler to fall short of breaking the 200-yard mark.
