Commanders vs. Bears Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 6

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 6 matchup between the Commanders and Bears on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 6 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels: Daniels returned from a two-week absence last week, completing 15 of 26 passes (57.7%) for 231 yards (8.9 Y/A) with a touchdown.

He rushed 8 times for 39 yards.

Daniels has yet to log a QB1 scoring week over his three appearances this season, but he has turned in high-floor outings in all three, scoring 20.1, 19.7, and 17.1 points.

This is a good place for Daniels to deliver his first QB1 week.

Washington is at home with one of the highest team totals of the week.

There are a few obstacles for Daniels to clear.

To be fair to the Bears, they have played the pass much better since the debacle against Jared Goff in Week 2.

Over their past two games, the Bears have limited Dak Prescott (12.0 points) and Geno Smith (9.8 points) to 6.3 yards and 5.6 yards per pass attempt.

Holding Smith may not be that impressive, but he also did not shred them.

After the past two weeks of watching Prescott, that outing was something noteworthy.

It would be beneficial for Washington to incorporate more play action for Daniels, especially in this matchup.

Daniels has used play action on 19.4% of his dropbacks, ranking 31st in the league.

In a large part, that is because a league-high 97.3% of his dropbacks have been from shotgun.

The Bears have allowed an 81.8% completion rate (31st) and 10.5 Y/A (31st) on play action passes compared to 6.1 Y/A on non-play action passes (6th) with a 68.6% completion rate (23rd).

Chicago is playing a lot of man coverage, using it 40.7% of the time, second in the league.

Daniels has thrown for 5.3 Y/A against man coverage (25th) compared to 7.8 Y/A versus zone (18th).

All of that man coverage could lead to runouts for Daniels with his legs, however.

Since the start of last season, Daniels has a league-high 11.5% scramble rate against man coverage.

If there is an area where Daniels can take advantage, it is down the field, which is why getting Terry McLaurin back will be huge if that happens this week.

On throws 10 or more yards downfield, the Bears have allowed a 61.3% completion rate (31st) and a league-high 15.1 yards per pass attempt.

Caleb Williams: We have ridden the roller coaster with Williams to open the season.

He has kicked off his second season as the QB9, QB20, QB1, and QB24 in weekly scoring.

Accuracy and handling pressure remain his most significant issues for finding consistency.

Williams has the highest inaccurate throw rate in the league (16.9%).

He has completed 10.2% of his passes below expectations, the lowest rate in the league.

When pressured, Williams has completed 48.6% of his passes (21st) for 4.3 yards per pass attempt (29th).

Washington can rush the passer.

They have a 40% pressure rate (8th).

That has been the telltale sign for their pass defense so far this season.

When they have gotten home defensively, they have allowed 5.5 Y/A (12th) and a 48.1% completion rate (15th).

Without pressure, they have allowed a 72.5% completion rate (16th) and jump to 9.5 yards per attempt (31st).

In this matchup a year ago, Dan Quinn blitzed Williams on 37.5% of his dropbacks, the second-highest blitz rate Williams has faced in his career.

Washington pressured Williams on 62.5% of his dropbacks in that game, the highest pressure rate Williams has faced in a game in the NFL so far.

Williams is someone I am more comfortable with starting as a boom-or-bust QB2 over 1QB formats, but if Chicago can keep him clean, the upside is here.

Coming out of the bye, I am interested to see what adjustments Ben Johnson makes.

Running Back

Bill Croskey-Merritt (TRUST): We came into last week questioning why this Washington backfield was operating as a three-person committee when Croskey-Merritt was clearly the most efficient member by leaps and bounds.

That appears to have finally turned in his favor as he worked as the lead back on Sunday.

Croskey-Merritt still only played 47.5% of the offensive snaps (a season-high), but he handled 69.6% of the backfield touches.

His previous high was 47.4%.

Croskey-Merritt did not waste the opportunity, turning his 16 touches into 150 total yards and 2 touchdowns.

He did lose a fumble as a blemish, but the staff went back to him.

Croskey-Merritt was a splash play machine on Sunday, turning in gains of 10, 11, 13, 15, 15 (TD), 27, and 28 yards.

Among running backs with 30 or more runs on the season, Croskey-Merritt sits with:

• 41.6% success rate (17th)
• 18.2% rate of runs for 10+ yards (3rd)
• 14.3% stuff rate (12th)
• 27.3% of his runs have been a first down or touchdown (10th)

All of that while 50.6% of his runs have come against stacked boxes (7th-highest).

We have had the rug pulled on us recently (Woody Marks last week) with a young back having his workload reduced after a breakout.

We also know that Croskey-Merritt will not average 6.6 yards per carry the rest of the way out.

However, this is such a promising spot that it is hard not to get excited about his fantasy potential here, while his workload still has considerable room for growth.

Washington is a home favorite with a team total just below 30 points.

They are facing one of the worst run defenses consistently to open the year.

The Bears are allowing a league-high 6.1 yards per carry to running backs.

They are allowing 18.6 rushing points per game (30th) and 12.3 receiving points per game (28th) to backfields.

D’Andre Swift: Swift has operated right on the back-end RB2 line over the opening month of the season, posting weeks as the RB27, RB22, RB24, and RB20.

Swift has not been particularly good, but we have not seen any of the depth in Chicago challenge him for touches.

Swift has a 38.2% success rate (28th) and ranks 41st in yards after contact per rush (2.16).

The only backs with a lower rate are James Conner (who is done) and Chase Brown.

What has kept Swift as a floor-based RB2 is that he has 77.5% of the backfield touches, RB8 on the season.

This is not a matchup to push Swift beyond what we have gotten from him.

Washington has allowed 3.4 YPC to running backs (4th) with a league-low 0.24 yards allowed before contact on those attempts.

Paired with Swift’s lack of production after contact, that is not a great recipe.

Washington is also 11th in receiving points allowed per game (7.8) to backfields.

Wide Receiver

Rome Odunze (TRUST): Odunze comes out of his bye sitting as the WR4 in points per game and the WR3 in expected points per game.

He is the WR12 in target share (26.7%) and the WR8 in share of air yards (40.1%).

This matchup has a few signals for Odunze.

Washington is a top-10 team in man coverage (28.2%).

Odunze has been targeted on a robust 43.5% of his routes against man coverage with 4.17 yards per route.

If Quinn is going to blitz as much as he did Williams a year ago, Odunze has a 38.7% target share against the blitz this season with 3.97 yards per route run.

When Washington does play zone coverage, they have played Cover 3 35.4% of the time.

Against Cover 3, Odunze has a team-high 24.1% target share with 2.27 yards per route run.

The Commanders have done well against outside receivers as one potential thorn.

Washington has allowed a 58.3% catch rate (7th) and 7.9 yards per target (11th) to those receivers, but also an 8.3% touchdown rate (25th).

Deebo Samuel: Samuel has been enjoying a resurgence in Washington to open the season.

This offense was always a good fit for him if he was forced to transition away from Kyle Shanahan, but with McLaurin missing so much of training camp and early-season action, Samuel has taken full advantage.

Samuel is currently the WR8 in points per game.

He has been targeted on 26% of his routes, which would be a career high.

That will likely come down when McLaurin returns.

With McLaurin off the field, Samuel has 31.1% of the Washington targets with a target on 29.7% of his routes (2.89 yards per route) and 30.5% of the air yards.

With McLaurin on the field, Samuel had 26% of the team targets with a target on 23.2% of his routes (1.40 yards per route) and 15% of the air yards.

If McLaurin returns, Samuel is a floor-based WR2.

If McLaurin is sidelined, then Samuel vaults up into WR1 range.

In years past, we wouldn't have been as excited about Samuel against a man-heavy defense, but he has played well this season against man coverage.

Samuel has been targeted on 26.2% of his routes against man coverage with 2.12 yards per route.

He has 3 touchdowns against man coverage already, the most he has ever had in a season.

Terry McLaurin: Early word this week was that Washington was “optimistic” that McLaurin could return after missing the past two games with a core injury.

Before the injury, McLaurin was off to a slow start, catching 10 of 17 targets for 149 yards over his three games played.

If he returns from injury, McLaurin is a volatile WR2/WR3, but there is upside here.

When he was on the field, McLaurin had a team-high 38.1% of the air yards.

If McLaurin can cash in on a long target, this is a matchup for it.

Chicago has allowed a 57.1% completion rate on wide receiver targets 20 or more yards downfield (29th).

D.J. Moore: Moore only has one top-40 scoring week, and that came attached to his only touchdown on the year so far.

Moore only has a 16% target share, which is lower than Olamide Zaccheaus (16.8%) despite Moore running 46 more pass routes.

Against man coverage, Moore has been targeted on just 4.8% of his routes with 0.14 yards per route run.

We will see how Chicago adjusts after the bye to get Moore going, but he is a WR4/FLEX option based on his current usage in this matchup.

Luther Burden: Burden is only a single-game DFS flyer, but we're watching to see if he gets an extended action coming out of the bye.

To this point, Burden has been on a pass route for only 22.1% of the team's dropbacks.

Tight End

Zach Ertz: Ertz did not have a reception last week.

It was his first game without a catch since the 2014 season.

Ertz has more than 3 catches in just one game this season.

He also ran a route on a season-low 71% of the dropbacks.

Ertz is a touchdown-dependent TE2.

If chasing the matchup, the Bears have allowed 7.3 receptions per game to tight ends (31st).

They have faced Brock Bowers, Jake Ferguson, Sam LaPorta, and T.J. Hockenson to open the year.

While they have allowed receptions to tight ends, Chicago has allowed only 6.3 yards per target (13th) and a 3% touchdown rate (10th) to the position.

Bears TE: We are entering the week expecting Colston Loveland to return, but we will monitor his status throughout the week and adjust if he appears to be trending toward missing another game.

That would open up Cole Kmet as a matchup-based streamer.

Loveland is another rookie we are watching to see if he earns an extended role after the bye.

With both Chicago tight ends active, Loveland and Cole Kmet are touchdown-or-bust fantasy options and best used in single-game DFS.

Washington has had issues with tight ends to open the year, allowing a league-high 11.7 yards per target to tight ends with a 7.1% touchdown rate (21st).

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