The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Chargers and Colts.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | LA Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 25.0 | ||
| 32.3 | 1 | Points/Gm | 21.2 | 23 |
| 19.3 | 4 | Points All./Gm | 20.8 | 12 |
| 60.2 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 63.7 | 9 |
| 61.7 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.5 | 10 |
| 6.3 | 2 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 13 |
| 5.3 | 15 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 9 |
| 47.92% | 6 | Rush% | 37.70% | 27 |
| 52.08% | 27 | Pass% | 62.30% | 6 |
| 36.22% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 42.17% | 14 |
| 63.78% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 57.83% | 19 |
- The Colts lead the league in points scored off turnovers (49).
- The Chargers are 26th in points allowed off turnovers (35).
- 38.4% of Indianapolis' sets of downs reach third down, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 47%.
- The Colts have scored a touchdown on a league-high 37.5% of their possessions. The league rate is 23.5%.
- The Chargers have scored a touchdown on 20% of their possessions, 24th in the league.
- The Chargers have scored a touchdown on 35% (7 of 20) of their red zone trips, a league low.
- The Chargers have allowed a touchdown on 42.9% (9 of 21) of opponent red zone trips, second-lowest in the league.
- The Colts have scored a touchdown on 10 consecutive red zone trips and have converted 14 of 17 red zone trips for touchdowns over their past four games.
- The Chargers have a 39.5% success rate on passing plays over their past four games (27th).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Daniel Jones: Jones was back in the front-end QB1 circle last week, ending the week as QB4 (22.5 points).
His Week 6 game was almost identical to his Week 5 game, when he was QB17 (16.7 points),
After completing 20 of 29 passes for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 5, Jones completed 22 of 30 passes for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday.
He did throw an interception this past week, but the difference maker for him was adding 20 yards and a touchdown rushing.
Jones has three weeks inside the top 10 this season.
All three have come with a rushing touchdown.
He has held a high floor even without a rushing score, but that is the difference between a fringe QB1 and a high-end QB1.
Jones continues to enjoy his new lease on life as an NFL starter with the Colts.
He has completed 71.7% of his passes (third) for 8.3 yards per pass attempt (5th).
His 1.7% touchdown rate is his lowest since 2022, while he has taken a sack on a career-low 2.7% of his dropbacks, which leads the league.
If you have followed my work for years, you know I have emphasized how sacks are closely related to turnovers and drive killers in the NFL, which has played a significant role in why the Colts are such an efficient scoring offense.
This season, NFL teams are scoring on 43.6% of their drives with a 26.7% touchdown rate on drives without a sack.
Even with just one sack on a drive, that drops to a 27.8% scoring rate per drive with a touchdown on 10.7% of drives.
Teams average 2.37 points per drive without a sack compared to 1.25 points per drive with a sack.
This is a matchup where I'm handling Jones as more of a floor-based option, a fringe QB1, rather than a ceiling breaker.
Jones has had two tough matchups this season, finishing as the QB5 against the Broncos (22/8 points) and the QB27 (10.4 points) against the Rams.
This matchup is more like to the latter.
The Chargers do not have the pass rush like the Rams, offering more favorable conditions.
That said, the Chargers are a passive, zone-based team that looks to mute passing production downfield.
The Chargers play man coverage only 13.1% of the time (31st), mixing Cover 3 at a 41.6% rate (6th) and Cover 4 on 22.5% of snaps (2nd).
They are allowing only a 36.4% completion rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield (3rd), allowing 8.9 passing points per game.
They have yet to allow multiple passing touchdowns in a game this season.
The only QB1 scoring weeks they have allowed have come attached to rushing touchdowns by the quarterback.
Jones is capable of doing that, while his efficiency is enough to prevent chasing a streamer in what could still shape up as a competitive and high-scoring game environment.
Justin Herbert: Despite playing with injuries on the offensive line, at wide receiver, and in the backfield on Sunday, Herbert managed to turn in a usable line for gamers, closing the week as the QB14 (18.8 points).
He completed 76.3% of his passes (29 of 38).
With the state of the offensive line and the loss of his downfield threat, Quentin Johnston, an emphasis on the short passing game has propelled a high completion rate.
That is where the Chargers have calibrated their approach around their losses on offense.
After Herbert averaged 10.1, 9.0, and 9.1 air yards per attempt in Weeks 1 through 3, he has averaged 6.5, 3.8, and 5.8 air yards per attempt over the past three weeks.
This has made it harder to pressure Herbert in a similar capacity to how Miami mitigates pressure on Tua Tagovailoa despite their offensive line.
Herbert has only been pressured on 30.8% and 32.4% of his dropbacks the past two weeks, since the ball is coming out quickly and short.
This has turned Herbert into a floor-based QB2 rather than a high-upside passer, but he does get another banged-up defense here, while the Chargers should be pressed to score points.
The Colts secondary is a mess right now, and they are coming off allowing 320 yards and a QB7 (20.7 points) scoring week to Jacoby Brissett.
Charvarius Ward suffered a concussion in pre-game warmups, colliding with a teammate.
The Colts have already suffered long-term injuries to Kenny Moore and Jaylon Jones, so they were down deep into the depth chart on Sunday.
If Ward is out again, that is more runway for an upside outcome for Herbert.
Running Back
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More Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Bengals | Thursday Night Football |
| Rams @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ 49ers | Sunday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Lions | Monday Night Football |
| Texans @ Seahawks | Monday Night Football |
