This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out a battle between SEC contenders as Missouri pays a visit to Vanderbilt.
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt, current line:
Missouri at Vanderbilt Best Bet Prediction:
Missouri’s defense might be overmatched against Vandy’s rushing attack, so let’s bet Vandy against the spread.
- Missouri vs. Vanderbilt, best line: Vanderbilt -2.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Vanderbilt -2.5 points
When Missouri is on Offense
Missouri offensive coordinator Kirby Moore leans on his backfield in a run-centric offense.
According to Campus2Canton, the Tigers run the ball at a rate 1.1% above expected based on situational data, with Ahmad Hardy carrying the bulk of that load.
So let’s check out the run game matchup based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Missouri: ranked 49th in yards before contact
- Vanderbilt: ranked 130th in yards before contact allowed
- Missouri: ranked 5th in yards after contact
- Vanderbilt: ranked 34th in yards after contact allowed
At first glance, the numbers appear to favor Missouri, but Moore’s conservative scheme might level the playing field.
Mizzou leans on heavy formations, which has allowed defenses to stack the box on 68% of handoffs, the nation’s 10th-highest rate.
The weakness of Vanderbilt’s run defense has been its inability to consistently generate early contact.
However, with a stacked box, the Commodores rank 11th in early contact rate.
Additionally, Vandy has stopped opponents for 0 or negative yards on 26% of attempts with a stacked box, ranked 21st.
When Vandy lost convincingly to Alabama earlier this year, running back Jam Miller (22 carries, 136 yards) was a major factor.
However, Alabama’s spread offense allowed Miller to run into a light box on 19 of those 22 carries.
Hardy hasn’t had more than 10 carries into a light box in any game this year.
It’s also worth noting that Hardy is more of a boom-or-bust running back than you might expect given his impressive raw numbers.
When hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, Hardy is stuffed in the backfield 37% of the time, ranked 40th out of 100 qualified ball carriers.
If Vanderbilt can limit the damage done by Hardy, it will put pressure on quarterback Beau Pribula and the passing attack.
Pribula, a transfer from Penn State, has been effective in his first year as the starter, but handling pressure has been an issue.
Let’s take a look at some of his numbers when facing pressure, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Yards per attempt: 5.0, ranked 104th out of 133
- Sack rate: 22.5%, ranked 112th
- Positive EPA rate: 25%, ranked 100th
Those numbers are cause for concern heading into a matchup with a Vanderbilt pass-rush unit posting impressive numbers:
- 42% pressure rate on non-blitzes, ranked 1st
- 54% pressure rate versus traditional dropbacks, ranked 4th
- 41% pressure rate overall, ranked 5th
There’s still hope for Missouri’s passing attack, however, as the Tigers have excelled in the quick passing game.
On throws five or fewer yards downfield, Missouri is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt (ranked sixth), while Vandy’s defense ranks 67th by the same metric.
Kevin Coleman Jr, a transfer from Mississippi State on his fourth school in four years, has filled that role in the offense, averaging 6.6 yards after catch per reception when targeted within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
So despite some concerns about Vandy’s pass rush, there’s a chance Missouri’s passing attack remains effective if it leans into the quick passing game.
When Vanderbilt is on Offense
Vanderbilt’s Heisman-hopeful quarterback, Diego Pavia, is the star of the show, but the Commodores offense is built around its rushing attack.
Vandy’s strategy is to run the ball and bleed the clock, because any game that turns into a shootout is likely going to end poorly for Vandy.
With a pace of play ranked 131st, the strategy tends to work well, so long as Vandy can control the game on the ground.
This was Vandy’s strategy last year as well, and it played a pivotal role in its upset of Alabama when the Commodores controlled the clock for 42 minutes.
But Vandy still only went 7-6 last season, so what’s different about this year’s squad?
Although Pavia gets all the headlines, it’s Vandy’s offensive line that deserves credit for the improvement.
Based on opponent-adjusted data, Vandy’s running backs lead the nation in yards before contact 一 a stunning turnaround for a unit that ranked 130th by the same metric last year.
It’s possible the remarkable turnaround is due to a unique approach used by Tim Beck and his offensive line coach Chris Klenakis.
Instead of having linemen always line up on the same side of the offensive line, Vandy has strong-side and quick-side linemen.
This scheme puts players in a better position to highlight their strengths 一 for example, the quick guard will be in a position to be the pulling guard more frequently.
It seems it took time for Vandy to iron out the kinks in this scheme, but in Year 2, it’s running smoothly and likely gives them a significant edge in the run game in this matchup.
While Vandy’s offensive line leads the nation in opponent-adjusted yards before contact, Missouri’s defense ranks 88th.
And if we drill down further, the run game matchup appears to favor Vandy even more.
Since the Commodores lean on heavier formations and defenses don’t respect Pavia’s arm, Vandy sees stacked boxes at a high rate.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Vanderbilt running backs have taken handoffs into a box with seven or more defenders 79% of the time, the third highest rate in the nation (even higher than Army!).
Theoretically, a stacked box makes it easier to stop the run, but that hasn’t been the case for Missouri, which is allowing 2.5 yards before contact with a stacked box, ranked 114th.
Although Missouri’s second level excels at preventing yards after contact 一 it ranks second in the nation in opponent-adjusted yards after contact 一 giving up free untouched yardage is going to make it easy for Vanderbilt to avoid tough down-and-distance situations.
That’s an area in which the Commodores already excel, ranked fifth in the nation in third-and-long avoidance rate (15% of sets of downs reach a third-and-seven or longer).
Avoiding those situations is critical to Vandy’s success due to Pavia’s issues as a downfield passer.
On throws of 10 or more yards, he ranks 69th in completion rate, and it is 83rd on throws of 15 or more yards.
Avoiding passing downs will also be crucial due to Missouri’s pass-rush unit, one of the best in the nation.
Led by Damon Wilson and Zion Young, the Tigers rank 12th in the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate.
So if Missouri builds a second-half lead or finds a way to contain the run game and force Pavia to make plays through the air, Vandy might be in trouble.
However, this appears to be an ideal matchup for the Commodores run game to control the flow of the game.
Final Thoughts on Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Best Bets
This looks like a good matchup for the Commodores to be able to execute their preferred game plan, so let’s take Vanderbilt against the spread.
This has the potential to be a historic game for Vanderbilt, as it has never won three games against ranked opponents in a season (it has two already), and it has never defeated ranked teams in consecutive games (it beat LSU last week).
