This article has hit the passing yards leader and multiple ladders on a quarterback passing prop in back-to-back weeks, which demonstrates the importance of understanding the conditions to peak passing outcomes.
Last week, the article hit on Jordan Love.
Although there was some trepidation because of the fact that the Packers could build a big lead and shut down, targeting the Steelers' pass defense, which struggles allowing explosives, made sense.
Game state was a concern, and the Packers won by 10, but they trailed by 9 points at halftime, which pushed the Packers to remain pass-heavy in the second half.
Week 8 game state concerns ruled the day as the average margin of victory was 18.3 points in a week that featured a single game being decided by single digits.
Through eight weeks of the season, five of the weekly touchdown leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and the other three quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.
Game state continues to be very important as teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.
Seven games on Sunday have a point spread of 4 or less, all of which have road favorites.
Identifying which of the home underdogs can win or keep the game competitive should be the first step in selecting which games to attack for DFS and passing props.
NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 41-40 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 37-40 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 23-20 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 27-20 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | 389 | San Francisco 49ers | 23-26 |
| 6 | Mac Jones | 347 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 19-30 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert | 420 | Indianapolis Colts | 24-38 |
| 8 | Jordan Love | 360 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 35-25 |
Most Week 9 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Daniel Jones (+1000)
The Mike Tomlin-led Steelers held Josh Jacobs to 2.5 yards per rush and 33 total rushing yards on Sunday, and he likely would like to stop Jonathan Taylor, who is averaging 106 rushing yards per game.
Anyone who listened to the Sunday Night Football broadcast understands how much of an emphasis the Steelers put on stopping the run, seemingly at any cost, including allowing Jordan Love to throw for a season-high 360 yards.
The Steelers could run into a similar problem as last week, as the Colts boast the third-ranked offense in EPA per pass attempt.
Daniel Jones leads the league in first-half passing yards.
The next closest quarterback trails him by 168 yards.
Jones is averaging 158 passing yards in the first half, which drops to 99 passing yards in the second half of games.
Should the Indianapolis Colts, who are 3.5-point favorites, be pushed by the Steelers or trail heading into the second half, as the Packers did last week, Jones will have the ability to keep the pedal down for the passing offense.
The Steelers defense ranks 23rd in EPA per dropback despite facing an easier than average schedule of opposing passing offenses to date.
Over the past two games, the Steelers pass defense has allowed 344 passing yards and 8.2 yards per attempt.
Now, they face a fully healthy Colts passing attack.
For Jones to hit his ceiling, he needs to attempt more than his season average of 30 passes per game, which will require the Steelers to remain competitive or possibly even build an early lead.
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Week 9 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Jaxson Dart Passing Ladders
- Over 204.5 Passing Yards (-112)
- 250+ Passing Yards (+262)
- 270+ Passing Yards (+424)
- 300+ Passing Yards (+870)
Jaxson Dart’s rookie season continues without both Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo, but it may not matter.
In fact, the rookie quarterback may prove that the NFL Draft and Scouting process still has some serious inefficiencies.
Dart has impressed in his rookie season, without elite receiving options and against an absolute gauntlet of opposing defenses.
Over the past three weeks, Dart has averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt against Vic Fangio’s defense twice and the Broncos' elite defense.
Not bad for a 22-year-old who has five career starts under his belt.
This week, Dart gets a reprieve facing the 49ers' injury-riddled defense, a huge step down from the defenses he’s faced over the past three weeks.
The 49ers are coming off a game in which C.J. Stroud threw for a season high 318 yards without his top-two veteran receiving options.
The 49ers can’t generate pressure without Nick Bosa.
They are 32nd with a 26.6% pressure rate since Week 4, and to make matters worse, they will be without Bryce Huff this week.
The 49ers have allowed 293 passing yards per game and 8.0 yards per pass attempt over their past four games and are traveling from the West Coast to play an early game on Sunday.
The arrow is pointing up for Dart, and Sunday provides an opportunity for the 25th overall pick to produce his best game to date.
