The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Packers and Vikings.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Minnesota | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 17.25 | Implied Total | 23.75 | ||
| 21.8 | 22 | Points/Gm | 24.0 | 13 |
| 23.2 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 19.6 | 7 |
| 57.4 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 60.6 | 21 |
| 61.8 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.6 | 22 |
| 5.2 | 22 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 11 |
| 5.1 | 9 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 3 |
| 38.68% | 29 | Rush% | 45.87% | 9 |
| 61.32% | 4 | Pass% | 54.13% | 24 |
| 49.84% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 40.42% | 10 |
| 50.16% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 59.58% | 23 |
- Minnesota has a -9 turnover differential compared to their opponent, 31st in the league.
- The Packers have scored 13 points off turnovers, 31st in the league and ahead of only the Jets (3).
- The Vikings have converted 31.4% of their third downs, 31st in the league and ahead of only Tennessee (29.8%).
- The Packers have converted a league-high 49.2% of their third downs.
- Green Bay averages a league-high 7.2 yards per play on third downs.
- Minnesota averages a league-low 3.7 yards per play on third downs.
- The Packers allow a league-low 4.4 yards per play on first and second downs.
- The Vikings average a league-low 1.23 points per drive on possessions following kickoffs.
- Green Bay has allowed 1.63 points per drive at home this season (7th) compared to 2.43 points per drive on the road (21st).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jordan Love: Love had a wonky Week 11.
He suffered a shoulder injury that cost him a drive (Malik Willis threw a touchdown).
Playing in windy conditions, he completed only 54.2% of his passes (13 of 24).
Green Bay pass catches also dropped 4 passes.
Love only threw for 174 yards, his third game below 200 yards over the past five weeks.
But he did throw 2 touchdown passes and, in a low-scoring week across the league, still managed a QB7 (17.7 points) scoring week.
It was just the second time since Week 4 that Love has cleared 15 fantasy points in a game.
I am handling Love as a boom-or-bust QB2 here.
When we talk about Love, we always talk about how he handles pressure.
Without pressure, Love leads the NFL in completion rate (82.2%) and ranks second in yards per pass attempt (9.3) with 15 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Under pressure, he is last in completion rate (38.2%) with 4.7 Y/A (32nd), 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
Minnesota leads the league in pressure rate (44.2%).
They have been the Jordan Love of defenses.
When Minnesota has gotten pressure, they are allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt (15th) compared to 8.2 Y/A without pressure (29th).
In four games against Brian Flores, Love is averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt with up-and-down outings.
In those four matchups, Love has been the QB18, QB2, QB3, and QB21.
The Vikings have played well the past two weeks against Lamar Jackson (6.1 Y/A) and Caleb Williams (6.0 Y/A), but that was following three weeks of allowing QB1 scoring weeks to Jalen Hurts (24 points), Justin Herbert (25.3 points), and Jared Goff (19.4 points).
There is still a chance this game can be high-scoring, but given that this is Green Bay and J.J. McCarthy is struggling to find his footing, the median outcome is middling.
J.J. McCarthy: It was not pretty on Sunday for this passing game.
McCarthy had a stellar final drive of the game to put Minnesota ahead, going 6 of 8 for 76 yards and the go-ahead score (at the time) on a 15-yard strike to Jordan Addison.
But that drive followed 55 minutes of lackluster passing.
Before that drive, McCarthy was 10 of 24 for 74 yards with 2 interceptions.
Minnesota was credited with 6 dropped passes, but McCarthy also had an 18.8% inaccurate throw rate (27th), so it was a collective effort.
McCarthy does have a league-high 9.3% drop rate, as it appears players are having issues with him throwing everything like he is Colin Kaepernick.
No matter how you want to divide things, McCarthy has now completed 52.9% of his passes, the lowest rate for any passer who qualifies for the league’s passer rating.
His 6.0 yards per pass attempt ranks 31st, and he has a league-high 5.7% interception rate.
15.7% of his passes have been inaccurate, the highest rate on that list.
For fantasy purposes, McCarthy’s 0.298 passing points per attempt are ahead of only Cam Ward (0.272).
He has found his way to a few usable weeks through his legs, but has not been a consistent runner.
He has 2 rushing touchdowns in five starts, but his 5.5% scramble rate is 16th.
He is capable of running, but is more in the Bo Nix range of scrambling.
I don’t want to throw everything out here and suggest McCarthy is incapable of turning things around after only five starts attached to this much offensive talent, but he cannot be trusted as more than a volatile QB2 at this stage.
We gave him the benefit of the doubt last week at home in a good-looking matchup.
The Vikings are on the road and outdoors in Green Bay.
The Packers are allowing a league-low 5.9 yards per pass attempt.
At home this season, the Packers have allowed a league-low 5.4 Y/A and 3.5% touchdown rate (7th).
Running Back
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More Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bills @ Texans | Thursday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Rams | Sunday Night Football |
| Panthers @ 49ers | Monday Night Football |













