The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Lions and Giants.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| NY Giants | Rank | @ | Detroit | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | Spread | -10.5 | ||
| 20.0 | Implied Total | 30.5 | ||
| 21.5 | 23 | Points/Gm | 29.2 | 4 |
| 27.3 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 21.6 | 10 |
| 64.4 | 6 | Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 18 |
| 63.8 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.5 | 9 |
| 5.2 | 20 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.0 | 4 |
| 5.9 | 28 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 6 |
| 45.62% | 11 | Rush% | 45.77% | 10 |
| 54.38% | 22 | Pass% | 54.23% | 23 |
| 42.45% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 42.18% | 14 |
| 57.55% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 57.82% | 19 |
- Detroit is 6-0 when tied or leading at the half and 0-4 when trailing at the half.
- The Lions have outscored opponents 134-67 (+67) at home, 3rd in the league.
- Detroit is averaging 2.59 points per drive at home (6th).
- The Lions are allowing a league-low 1.29 points per drive at home.
- The Giants allow 2.48 points per drive, 29th in the league.
- The Giants are averaging 2.46 points per drive over their past six games, 8th in the league.
- The Giants are last in defensive EPA as a rushing defense (-34.2).
- The Giants have allowed the highest rate of runs for 5 or more yards (43.3%) and 10 or more yards (18.3%) in the league.
- Detroit has a 36.3% success rate on rushing plays, 27th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jared Goff (TRUST): Goff is coming off his worst game with the Lions and arguably his career.
He completed a career-low 37.8% of his passes (14 of 37).
His 27.5% success rate was the second-lowest of his career.
On throws past the line of scrimmage, Goff was 7 of 26 (26.9%) for 140 yards (5.4 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
Goff was outdoors in the wind against a front-end defense.
Things quickly change here to wash that taste out as a home favorite with the highest team total of the week.
Goff is second in rating at home this season (116.0), completing 69.4% of his passes (9th) for 8.5 yards per attempt (5th) with 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
That has not always led to high-end fantasy production, however.
At home this year, he has been the QB1 (34 points), QB22 (12.7 points), QB22 (10.3 points), and QB13 (19.4 points).
There is also a case where the Detroit running backs go nuts here and crash the party, but the layout for Goff is strong.
The Giants are 28th in passing points allowed per game (16.3).
They have struggled to defend play action, allowing a 71.7% completion rate (23rd) for 8.3 Y/A (19th).
Goff is fourth among all quarterbacks in dropback rate with play action (30.3%).
Goff has also been the best quarterback against man coverage this season (129.1 rating).
Against man coverage, he averages 8.4 Y/A (4th) with a 13.3% touchdown rate (5th), throwing 10 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
The Giants are playing man coverage on a league-high 41.1% of passing plays.
Jaxson Dart: Early reports are that Dart is expected to clear concussion protocol and be back for Week 12.
Should anything change, we will circle back and adjust.
It has not always been clean with Dart, but he keeps scoring fantasy points.
He averages 22.9 points per game as a starter, finishing lower than QB13 in just one of his seven starts.
That also includes two games against the Eagles, one against Denver, and one against the Chargers.
All of those teams are in the top six in fewest points allowed to quarterbacks.
There are cases against him here, too.
He is a massive road underdog.
Under pressure, Dart has completed 42.6% of his passes (28th) with a 27% sack rate (29th).
Pro Football Focus has credited Dart with creating 42.1% of his own pressures this season, by far the highest total among quarterbacks.
Detroit has a 42.8% pressure rate (4th) and a 10.1% sack rate (3rd) at home this season.
Dart is only averaging 6.3 yards per attempt against man coverage (21st), but has an 8.9% touchdown rate (14th).
The Lions are third in man coverage rate on passing plays (37.8%).
Coming out of concussion protocol and with the coaching change, it will be interesting to see how much Dart runs here.
That has been the most significant component of his fantasy success.
45.9% of Dart’s fantasy points are from rushing output, the highest rate in the league.
Detroit is 24th in rushing points allowed to quarterbacks (3.8 per game).
Dart is an upside option on the QB1 line.
There is enough volatility here for a lower floor than we have seen from Dart, but also the potential for a point-chasing environment that leads to fantasy points.
As noted in the bullet points, the Giants have scored points consistently.
Even last week, without Dart against the Packers, the Giants only punted twice.
They only had 7 official drives, but they scored 3 touchdowns and had possessions of 9, 11, 16, 15, and 10 plays.
Running Back
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More Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bills @ Texans | Thursday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Rams | Sunday Night Football |
| Panthers @ 49ers | Monday Night Football |
