The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Bengals and Patriots.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New England | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | Spread | 7.5 | ||
| 28.5 | Implied Total | 21.0 | ||
| 26.5 | 7 | Points/Gm | 22.8 | 18 |
| 18.7 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 33.4 | 32 |
| 61.3 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 58.7 | 24 |
| 56.4 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.0 | 31 |
| 5.8 | 6 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 19 |
| 5.3 | 15 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.3 | 32 |
| 46.88% | 7 | Rush% | 32.54% | 32 |
| 53.12% | 26 | Pass% | 67.46% | 1 |
| 38.39% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 46.67% | 24 |
| 61.61% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 53.33% | 9 |
- The Bengals are last in defensive EPA this season (-114.2).
- Cincinnati averages 111.1 fewer yards per game than their opponents, the worst margin in the league.
- The Patriots have led at the half in a league-high 10 games this season.
- The Bengals have allowed a league-high 69 points off turnovers.
- The Bengals have a league-low 48.6% success rate against passing plays.
- The Patriots have a 50.8% success rate on passing plays, 3rd in the league.
- The Bengals are allowing a league-high 3.20 points per drive at home.
- The Bengals are averaging 2.93 points per drive at home (4th) compared to 1.15 points per drive on the road (30th).
- 80% (20 of 25) of Cincinnati's touchdowns have been via passing, tied for the highest rate in the league.
- 82.6% (19 of 23) of the touchdowns allowed by New England have been via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- The Patriots (45.5%) and Bengals (46.2%) have allowed the two lowest rates of receptions to wide receivers this season.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Drake Maye (TRUST): Maye was efficient again on Thursday, completing 25 of 34 passes (73.5%) for 281 yards (8.3 Y/A) with a touchdown and 0 interceptions.
He only ran for 2 yards, his first game with single-digit rushing yardage.
Maye leads the league in completion rate over expectations (+9.3%).
He has averaged over 8.0 yards per pass attempt in eight straight games.
That has happened only six times, the last being Philip Rivers in 2018.
Aaron Rodgers (2011) and Dan Marino (1984) have the record at 10 games.
This week, he gets to go against a defense allowing the second-highest yards per pass attempt in the league (7.9).
The Bengals are allowing 11.8 yards per completion (31st), a 6.6% touchdown rate (29th), and 17.9 passing points per game (31st).
An injury to Rodgers snapped a streak of allowing QB1 scorers, but Rodgers and Mason Rudolph combined for 18.4 fantasy points on Sunday, which would have been QB7 on the week.
Joe Flacco: The other shoe finally dropped for Flacco and this passing game on Sunday.
We knew we were running pure with Flacco recently, but things caught up to gamers last week.
Flacco completed just 57.5% of his passes (23 of 40) for 199 yards (5.0 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
Flacco saw his highest rates of zone coverage (83.3%) and two-high coverage (73.2%) not only with the Bengals but for the season.
As a byproduct, only 25% of his throws were 10 or more yards downfield, his lowest rate since his first games with the Bengals.
Flacco’s two worst starts with the Bengals have come on the road.
The good news is that he will be at home here, and New England has an aggressive defense.
The Patriots rank eighth in the rate of man coverage on passing plays (28.3%).
When the Patriots are not in man coverage, they are middle of the pack in two-high looks (48.3%).
The bad news for Flacco is that he will not have Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday, who has been suspended.
Chase has accounted for 35.6% of Flacco’s targets, 34.8% of his receptions, and 33.5% of his yardage since joining the team.
Chase has been on the field for all but 2 of Flacco’s dropbacks.
Without Chase, Flacco is a volatile QB2.
We should still see plenty of passing volume here, at least.
The Patriots are a pass funnel through their defense and game scripts, while Cincinnati will keep throwing.
They have a 68.8% dropback rate since acquiring Flacco, third in the league.
The Patriots have allowed only 5.8 yards per pass attempt over their past five games (4th), but they have had a solid run of opposing quarterback play.
Since facing Josh Allen in Week 5, the Patriots have gone against Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel, Michael Penix, Baker Mayfield, and Justin Fields.
They did hold Mayfield to 6.3 Y/A, but he had 43 attempts against them and managed 3 touchdown passes.
Running Back
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More Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bills @ Texans | Thursday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Rams | Sunday Night Football |
| Panthers @ 49ers | Monday Night Football |
