The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Colts and Texans.
Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Houston | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Spread | -4.5 | ||
| 20.0 | Implied Total | 24.5 | ||
| 22.1 | 21 | Points/Gm | 31.0 | 1 |
| 16.5 | 2 | Points All./Gm | 20.8 | 9 |
| 63.8 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 60.8 | 20 |
| 57.4 | 4 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.7 | 30 |
| 5.1 | 23 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.3 | 1 |
| 4.6 | 3 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 13 |
| 40.60% | 23 | Rush% | 43.80% | 15 |
| 59.40% | 10 | Pass% | 56.20% | 18 |
| 39.62% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 37.07% | 3 |
| 60.38% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 62.93% | 30 |
- The Colts have won eight straight games at home, the 2nd-longest active streak in the league and their longest streak as a franchise since 2008-2009.
- The Colts lead the league in points per drive (3.04).
- Houston has allowed the fewest points per drive (1.40).
- The Colts have scored a touchdown on a league-high 35.5% of their drives.
- The Texans have allowed a touchdown on 15.8% of opponent drives, 3rd in the league.
- The Texans have averaged 1.89 points per drive, 24th.
- The Colts have a first down or a touchdown on 30.8% of their early-down plays, the highest rate in the league.
- The Texans have allowed a first down or touchdown on 20.5% of early-down plays, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Colts have converted 22 of 23 (95.7%) of their goal-to-go situations into touchdowns, 2nd in the league.
- The Texans have converted 58.8% (10 of 17) of their goal-to-go opportunities into touchdowns, 30th in the league.
- Indianapolis has a league-high 46.4% success rate on running back runs.
- Houston has a 32.9% success rate on running back runs (29th).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Daniel Jones: Jones threw for a season-low 5.8 yards per pass attempt in a tough spot on the road in Kansas City.
The game started well for Jones.
In the first half, he was 10 of 12 for 94 yards (7.8 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.
After the half, this passing game flatlined.
Jones was 8 of 18 for 83 yards (4.6 Y/A) in the second half with three first downs.
Jones was effective using the play action pass on Sunday, going 10 of 14 (71.4%) for 119 yards (8.5 Y/A), but only threw for 3.6 Y/A with a 52.9% completion rate without play action, which directly overlaps with the strengths and weaknesses of Kansas City this season.
Over the past three weeks, Jones has operated as more of a floor-based QB2 against Pittsburgh (14.1 points), Atlanta (15.5 points), and Kansas City (16.8 points).
Jones heads back home to face another tough matchup, keeping him in that area.
Houston is second in the NFL in pressure rate (41.8%), coming off a game in which they sacked Josh Allen 8 times.
They have allowed a 59.1% completion rate (third), 6.2 yards per pass attempt (second), and a 2.9% touchdown rate (second).
Houston has not allowed a QB1-scoring week this season, with Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen on their resume.
Only Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, and Bo Nix have thrown multiple touchdown passes against Houston.
Texans QB: We are opening the week with DeMeco Ryans stating that C.J. Stroud is still in concussion protocol.
Ryans said that Stroud would be the starter when he is cleared, but we will have to follow this throughout the week.
Regardless of whether we get Stroud or another start for Davis Mills, the Houston quarterback is a QB2 option.
Stroud has more appeal in pushing the shootout potential here.
That said, Stroud’s best fantasy weeks this season have been identifiable coming in based on matchups.
His three games clearing 15 fantasy points have come against an injury-riddled defense for Baltimore (28.8 points), a San Francisco defense (21.7 points) that could not rush the passer, and Tennessee in Week 4 (18.4 points).
Mills had that jailbreak fourth quarter against the Jaguars that led to fantasy points, but he has thrown for 6.5, 6.7, and 5.1 yards per pass attempt in his three starts.
Mills has completed 59.5% of his passes (21st) for 6.2 Y/A (23rd) over the past three weeks.
The Colts are trending toward being a very tough pass defense over the remainder of the season.
They are 10th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.389).
They have not allowed multiple passing touchdowns in a game since Week 7.
If they do have an objective weakness, it is a lack of a front-end pass rush.
The Colts are 22nd in pressure rate (33.7%), which dips to 31.4% without DeForest Buckner on the field.
When kept clean, Stroud is 14th with a 106.8 rating, completing 72.1% of his passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
When pressured, Stroud drops to 24th in rating (60.4), completing 52.9% of his passes for 5.4 Y/A with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
Mills has completed 68.6% of his passes for 6.9 Y/A with 4 touchdowns and an interception when kept clean, but has completed 33.3% (10 of 30) of his passes for 4.3 Y/A when pressured.
Running Back
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More Week 13 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Packers @ Lions | Thanksgiving |
| Chiefs @ Cowboys | Thanksgiving |
| Bengals @ Ravens | Thanksgiving |
| Bears @ Eagles | Black Friday |
| 49ers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Steelers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Commanders | Sunday Night Football |
| Giants @ Patriots | Monday Night Football |
