The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Vikings and Commanders.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Washington | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 21.5 | Implied Total | 20.0 | ||
| 21.8 | 22 | Points/Gm | 18.7 | 28 |
| 26.9 | 28 | Points All./Gm | 23.4 | 18 |
| 60.7 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 55.7 | 31 |
| 61.9 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 19 |
| 5.6 | 12 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 27 |
| 6.3 | 31 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 7 |
| 46.84% | 8 | Rush% | 38.62% | 28 |
| 53.16% | 25 | Pass% | 61.38% | 5 |
| 46.30% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 51.28% | 32 |
| 53.70% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 48.72% | 1 |
- Minnesota is last in the NFL in EPA as a passing offense over the past eight weeks (-67.0).
- Washington is last in the NFL in EPA as a pass defense over that span (-82.0).
- Minnesota has the league's worst turnover differential at -15.
- Washington has scored 20 points off takeaways this season, 29th in the league.
- 47.2% (25 of 53) of the scoring plays against Minnesota have been touchdowns, the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.
- Only 21.4% of Washington drives fail to gain a first down, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 31.6%.
- The Vikings average a league-low 3.4 yards per play on third downs.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Washington QB: Jayden Daniels has been practicing since last week, but he has not yet been cleared for contact following his dislocated elbow.
Daniels has stated he wants to play when cleared, but Dan Quinn will have the final say.
Whether we get Daniels or another week of Marcus Mariota, the Washington QB will be a high-floor option on the QB1/QB2 line.
Between Daniels and Mariota, the two have only one game this season in which the starter has finished the game and has scored fewer than 15 fantasy points.
Mariota has made six starts, averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game.
He has been a QB1 scorer in four of those six starts, with two games as a top-six scorer.
Mariota came through to close Sunday night’s game against Denver.
He only completed 56% of his passes for 5.9 Y/A, but Mariota threw for 294 yards with 2 touchdowns, adding 55 rushing yards.
Mariota threw for 160 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter and overtime.
While the production came late, it also came against the league's best defense.
One thing that has been out of sight and out of mind this year is that Washington was an offense we were excited about entering the year, based on their success in 2024.
They were able to field their pass-catching core Sunday night, something we have not seen a lot of this year.
They will need to roll that success over here.
Minnesota and this pass defense have done their part of late.
The Vikings are one of the hottest defenses in the league, but they have not gotten to shine because their offensive attachment is abysmal.
Over the past five weeks, Minnesota has allowed a 59.6% completion rate (7th), 6.3 yards per pass attempt (9th), and a 2.1% touchdown rate (third).
They have allowed 9.0 passing points per game over that stretch (8th), facing Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, and Sam Darnold.
J.J. McCarthy: McCarthy is set to return this week after missing last week’s game in concussion protocol.
Out of 42 quarterbacks with 100-plus pass attempts, McCarthy is last in rating (57.9), completing 54.1% of his passes (last) for 5.8 yards per pass attempt (40th).
15.1% of his passes have been inaccurate (40th) while 24.9% of his dropbacks have resulted in a loss of 1.0 EPA or worse (last).
McCarthy takes a step of faith even in 2QB formats.
You can make a case for him based on Washington ranking 31st in passing points allowed per game (17.6), but they have put up more of a fight in the past two weeks since Dan Quinn has taken over play calling, holding Tua Tagovailoa (6.8 points) and Bo Nix (16.4 points) to QB2 scoring weeks.
Even if you apply a grain of salt to the quality of those quarterbacks, we are taking a step down with McCarthy.
Running Back
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More Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Lions | Thursday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Chiefs | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Chargers | Monday Night Football |
