The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Browns and Bills.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Cleveland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10.0 | Spread | 10.0 | ||
| 26.0 | Implied Total | 16.0 | ||
| 29.4 | 3 | Points/Gm | 16.1 | 29 |
| 23.1 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 23.7 | 19 |
| 63.4 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 61.7 | 15 |
| 56.1 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.6 | 8 |
| 6 | 4 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.3 | 32 |
| 5.6 | 23 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 4 |
| 49.83% | 1 | Rush% | 39.47% | 28 |
| 50.17% | 32 | Pass% | 60.53% | 5 |
| 47.07% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 47.60% | 28 |
| 52.93% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 52.40% | 5 |
- The Bills are 3rd in the NFL in EPA as a passing offense (120.4).
- The Browns are last in the NFL in EPA as a passing offense (-121.9).
- Buffalo is 31st in EPA as a rush defense (-30.3).
- Cleveland is 26th in EPA as a rush offense (-43.9).
- The Browns are averaging a league-low 4.3 yards per play on first down.
- The Bills have a league-high 35 runs of 10 or more yards since Week 8.
- The Browns have allowed 95 points off turnovers, 2nd-most in the league.
- Buffalo road games are 5-1 towards the under (.833), the highest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen got off to a slow start on Sunday, completing 6 of 8 passes for 35 yards (4.4 Y/A) with a touchdown in the first half, rushing 3 times for 12 yards.
Buffalo trailed 24-7 at the half in New England, and Allen came alive.
Allen went 13 of 20 for 158 yards (7.9 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns in the second half, rushing 8 times for 36 yards.
When Buffalo is against the wall, that is when Allen is at his best for fantasy.
He often needs that push to burn his brightest for fantasy purposes.
Allen has four top-three scoring weeks this season, coming against the Bucs (a 44-32 win), Ravens (41-40 win), Bengals (39-34 win), and Chiefs (28-21 win).
His two other top-six weeks came against the Dolphins (31-21 win) and Patriots (35-31 win).
You are locking Allen in as front-end QB1 where you have him.
The question is, will that “Super Josh” version of him be needed this week?
Can Cleveland provide that spark and push him into that next gear, or is this a spot where Buffalo controls the game and gets out of town with a clean victory?
Most outcomes of this game fall into the latter category.
The Browns have allowed only two QB1 weeks this season: Lamar Jackson in Week 2 (26.3 points) and Drake Maye in Week 8 (26.3 points).
They have softened as of late, as the defense wears down to close the season, allowing Brock Purdy (17.1 points) and Caleb Williams (19 points) to have solid outings in two of their past three games.
Allen has been more mortal against man coverage, which Cleveland plays at the league’s highest rate (45%).
Against man coverage, Allen has completed 60.2% of his passes (9th) for 7.0 Y/A (13th) and a 7.3% touchdown rate (18th).
Against zone, he has completed 74.1% of his passes (2nd), for 8.7 Y/A (3rd) and a 4.4% touchdown rate (1st).
Of course, if you are going to play man coverage, you'd better contain Allen.
He has a 10.7% scramble rate against man coverage (2nd in the league) compared to a 9.3% scramble rate against zone (6th).
Denzel Ward’s status is also important here.
Ward missed last week's game with a calf injury.
On 71 attempts with Ward off the field this season, the Browns have allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt (27th) and a league-high 11.3% touchdown rate.
Shedeur Sanders: Sanders was back to being a back-end QB2 on Sunday following his eruption in Week 14.
In Chicago on Sunday, Sanders was 18 of 35 (51.4%) for 177 yards (5.1 Y/A) with 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
He rushed twice for 24 yards.
Over his four weeks as the starter, Sanders has faced the highest pressure rate (52.5% of dropbacks).
33.9% of his pressures are credited as his own fault, as his 3.28 seconds from snap to throw is the highest in the league.
The Cleveland offensive line has been ravaged in recent weeks (and for the season), but they could get Jack Conklin and Wyatt Teller back this week.
Regardless, this is not a great spot to push Sanders outside of necessity in 2QB leagues.
Buffalo is allowing 10.6 passing points per game (3rd).
Rookie quarterbacks have not had much success against Sean McDermott.
Since he joined Buffalo in 2017, rookie quarterbacks are 3-11 against the Bills, completing 58.7% of their passes for 5.9 Y/A with 10 touchdowns and 20 interceptions.
Running Back
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More Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ Seahawks | Thursday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Saturday -- 5 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Bears | Saturday -- 8:20 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Texans | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| 49ers @ Colts | Monday Night Football |
