2026 Fantasy Football QB Tiers: Rich Hribar’s Draft Guide

Welcome to my 2026 fantasy football quarterback tiers, the deepest dive into the QB position you will find this draft season.

If you are unfamiliar with my tiers pieces, then let me lay out some groundwork.

These positional-tier posts are designed to serve as a top-down almanac for you to come back to all summer long.

If long-form content is not your thing, no worries.

I also have abbreviated player blurbs on the rankings page for each position, and we have linear tables for those who are here just for a ranked list of players.

How My Fantasy Football QB Tiers Work

While there is a structure to the order here, these are not rankings.

They are meant to serve as more complete player profiles grouped around player archetypes.

An underappreciated element we still face in the fantasy community, for content providers and consumers alike, is that rankings, projections, tiers, and average draft position are fundamentally different.

They all serve different purposes and are not interchangeable, even though they may share overlap.

Projections give us a median range of season-long production and have implications for listing players in a linear format (rankings).

Even when those full-season numbers are accurate, they fail to capture the overall weekly impact and the pockets of production relevant to our weekly fantasy football game.

There is a finite number of players at each position who smash weekly throughout the fantasy season at the highest level.

If you do not land one of those weekly juggernauts, you are hoping to counter them with players when they are at their hottest.

Many player tiers are simply rankings divided into sections.

While the rankings are more focused on a probable tally of season-long output for a week-to-week game, I prefer to structure my tiers based on how similarly players accrue fantasy points and on the archetypes they represent.

By doing this, we can identify actionable gaps in player pricing per tier, which in turn allows for arbitrage in fantasy drafts.

This approach also highlights some longer-odds players who have more potential than initially perceived.

Arbitrage in fantasy football is strongly driven by how production is accrued, and the order of players (rankings) reflects the opportunities (at the player and team levels) each player receives.

Our projections are often wrong about those projected opportunities.

A multitude of factors influence team situations: game script, injuries to a player or his teammates, ineffective play, player breakouts, and so on.

Understanding how a player is used enables us to buy into the variance in his performance across opportunities.

If we are wrong about the opportunity projection, a lower-tier player could present an arbitrage opportunity.

While there is no direct overlap with the individual player rankings, the order of these tiers reflects how I prioritize drafting positions from an archetypal stance.

While that may be confusing for a player ranked highly on a linear list versus the specific tier he is in, I will do my best to incorporate detailed thoughts regarding draft capital in those events throughout the player breakdowns.

One final note: I will be updating and adding analysis to these tiers throughout the summer.

With that introduction to the methodology used, let's proceed to the actual player analysis.

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Tier 1 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Josh Allen

We are opening with the player who has the highest odds of finishing as the QB1 in overall scoring.

Josh Allen

Bye: Week 7

Fantasy Playoffs: CHI, @DEN, @MIA

No player has a track record of pushing the top of positional scoring more consistently than Allen.

Since 2020, Allen has finished as the QB1, QB1, QB2, QB1, QB2, and QB1 in overall quarterback scoring.

He has been the QB3, QB1, QB2, QB1, QB2, and QB1 for points per game over that period.

Although Allen's counting stats declined in 2025, he had another excellent season.

He posted career lows in touchdown passes (25) and passing yards per game (215.8), but career highs in completion rate (69.3%) and yards per pass attempt (8.0).

Those rates ranked fourth and fifth in the league.

Although his passing touchdowns dropped from the year prior for the fifth consecutive season, Allen still posted a 5.4% touchdown rate, his sixth consecutive season over 5%.

No other quarterback over that span can say the same.

In addition to passing efficiency, Allen added 579 rushing yards.

That was his most rushing yardage since 2022, and his fifth year in a row providing at least 500 yards on the ground.

That dual-purpose usage has had the greatest impact near the end zone.

Allen rushed for 14 touchdowns, his third straight year with at least 12 rushing touchdowns.

He was second in fantasy points scored inside the red zone in 2025 (148.7).

Allen has ranked first or second among all position players in fantasy points inside the red zone for five consecutive seasons.

If there is one nit to pick with Buffalo and its relationship to Allen's fantasy scoring, it is that they do not throw it more.

We can point to Buffalo’s obvious strength along the offensive line, James Cook, Allen’s own rushing ability, and a subpar group of pass catchers as the primary reasons for leaning into the run, but anytime that Buffalo has been pressed to throw the football, they have been successful.

Allen raises the tide.

Buffalo had a 46.7% success rate on passing plays, even with their 2025 offense, which ranked seventh in the league.

They were still eighth in the NFL in passing plays that gained 10 or more yards (28.8%) and third in passing plays that gained 20 or more yards (11.4%).

In the six regular-season games in which Allen reached 30 pass attempts, he averaged 25.3 standard points per game.

What if Buffalo throws more this season?

The addition of D.J. Moore, Joe Brady being elevated to head coach, and defensive changes could see Buffalo push the ball through the air more in 2026.

Since taking over as the play-caller in Buffalo, Brady has called conservative game plans.

Ken Dorsey was presumably fired in 2023 for throwing the ball too often.

Over the final nine games in 2023, Buffalo ranked 31st in the NFL in dropback rate (52.4%) and 27th in passing yardage rate (60.7%).

Before that, they were seventh in the NFL in dropback rate (63.2%), and 68.5% of their yardage came through the air (13th).

In 2024, Buffalo had a 56.3% dropback rate (25th) with 63.5% of their yardage through the air (22nd).

This past season, the Bills posted a 54.3% dropback rate (30th) with 57.6% of their yardage via passing (30th).

What will be interesting to see is how much that was by Brady’s own design or top-down influence from Sean McDermott.

When it comes to Allen in 1QB formats, it's about how you want to handle opportunity cost.

As great as he has been, even when Allen has outright scored the most fantasy points at the position, another quarterback has produced at least 90% of his overall production.

Last year, Drake Maye (96.3%), Matthew Stafford (96.1%), and Trevor Lawrence (92.8%) were all within range of Allen at much cheaper costs.

The rub there is that you do need to nail the players competitive with Allen, while he still offers the best single-week upside of any player at the position.

The other avenue for Buffalo to throw more in 2026 is to be pushed more often.

Allen is one of these “big game” players for fantasy.

Whereas some quarterbacks blow teams away and score more points in runaway game scripts as a frontrunner, Allen gets better when the Bills play in more competitive contests.

When the Bills are pushed or play in big games, they have put more on Allen’s plate, which has led to some wild runouts for fantasy purposes.

Allen already has the most career games with 30-plus fantasy points in league history (30).

He led all quarterbacks again in that department last year (4).

Over the past six seasons, when Buffalo has been a favorite of 3 or fewer points or an underdog, Allen has averaged a league-high 24.1 fantasy points per game.

In games decided by a field goal or less in either direction over that span, Allen has averaged a league-high 24.8 points per game.

This year, the Bills have games scheduled against the Lions, Chargers, Rams, Ravens, Patriots (x2), Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Bears, and Broncos.

All of those opponents can push the Bills into competitive games with upside.

The crunch time of the fantasy schedule is particularly appealing.

From Week 12 through Week 17, the Bills face the Chiefs, Patriots, Packers, Bears, Broncos, and Dolphins.

Tier 2 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Drake Maye
• Lamar Jackson
• Jayden Daniels

Moving on from the top player at the position to the next subset of players who fit the right archetype to push Allen as the top scorer, if all things line up correctly.

For that, we are looking for a player who can consistently produce above-average results, both through the air and on the ground.

Gamers have come around to the view that these dual-threat options are the players to invest your high-end draft capital in if you are paying up at the position.

The last time that the QB1 in overall scoring averaged fewer than multiple rushing points per game was Peyton Manning in 2013.

When a player with rushing acumen can put together a strong passing campaign, that is a tough player to combat for fantasy, while it is hard to outright pace the position in standard formats on passing stats alone.

You need access to viable output in both departments to pace the position in fantasy points.

These are three guys who I believe offer the best of both worlds.

Drake Maye

Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Playoffs: @KC, @NYJ, DEN

Maye’s second-year breakout led to a second-place MVP finish and a Super Bowl appearance.

He was the QB2 behind Josh Allen in fantasy points for the season (producing 96.3% of Allen’s season total), and the QB2 in points per game (20.7).

Maye led the NFL in quarterback rating (113.5), QBR (77.2), EPA per play (0.27), and was second in success rate (51.6%).

Maye completed a league-high 72% of his passes for a league-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt.

The only other quarterbacks in league history to average over 8.5 Y/A on 400-plus attempts in their second NFL season have been Kurt Warner (8.7), Patrick Mahomes (8.8), Joe Burrow (8.9), Dan Marino (9.0), and Brock Purdy (9.6).

On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Maye completed 60.7% of his passes (2nd) for a league-high 13.4 yards per attempt.

The league average on those completions was 48.5%.

On throws 20 or more yards downfield, Maye completed 50% (3rd) while throwing a league-high 5 touchdowns on throws 30 or more yards downfield.

The players he threw the ball to 20-plus times on throws 10 or more yards downfield last year were Mack Hollins (33), Kayshon Boutte (33), Stefon Diggs (31), and Hunter Henry (27).

Diggs is gone due to off-field turbulence, but the additions of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs could upgrade the overall pass-catching unit as Maye enters Year 3.

Remember, while Diggs was excellent last season, he was not even a full-time player.

No New England wide receiver was on the field for 70% of the dropbacks last year.

Diggs was on the field for only 68.3% of the team’s dropbacks.

Both Brown and Doubs, while healthy, will be strong bets to play significantly more.

Maye also added 450 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground, averaging 4.1 rushing points per game (QB11).

I do believe that Maye is the closest projection we have to Allen in terms of passing plus rushing upside in an apex outcome.

Still, if there is a nit to pick with Maye as a runner compared to Allen (or the other two players in this tier), it is that New England has not yet shown any intent to use Maye as a runner near the end zone or as a high-end designed rusher.

The crux of Maye’s rushing points for fantasy through two seasons has come via scrambling output.

Last year, he led the NFL in scramble attempts (62) and was third in yards gained on scrambles (429) with 3 touchdowns (tied for 2nd).

In 2024, he was second in scrambling yardage (407).

Last season, Maye had only 20 designed quarterback runs (12th) when excluding kneel-downs, aborted plays, and scrambles.

Over his first two seasons, Maye has had only 2 designed rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line.

His physical profile is big enough that New England could start using him more as a runner near the end zone. We just have not seen it much to date.

We cannot talk about Maye’s 2025 breakout without at least bringing up the layout.

At this time a year ago, Maye’s strength of schedule was a factor in his being a target as one of the best potential breakouts at the position.

This offense still has plenty of room to grow when facing front-end competition.

In the postseason, the Patriots averaged 4.5 yards per play and 1.13 points per drive with a 36.1% success rate.

In the regular season, they averaged 6.2 yards per play, 2.60 points per drive, and had a 46% success rate.

After completing 72% of his passes in the regular season for 8.9 Y/A, Maye completed 58.3% in the postseason for 6.9 Y/A.

He threw 6 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, fumbled 7 times, and took 21 sacks.

He averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game in the postseason, which was right on par with Sam Darnold and eighth among playoff quarterbacks.

The Patriots are not sneaking up on anyone this season and now have our 24th-ranked passing schedule.

Particularly as the year closes, the Patriots will be tested.

Maye has a late-season bye (Week 11) and then faces the Chargers, Bills, Vikings, Chiefs, Jets, and Broncos through Week 17.

Outside the Jets, those are all pass defenses that can be strong on paper.

Maye can offset any concerns with continued progression in Year 3, and you can make a strong case that this New England offense improved this offseason, coming off their 2025 success.

The offensive line, which was a problem area against strong opposition, has added pieces and flexibility.

With Garrett Bradbury traded and the addition of Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jared Wilson can now slide into the center spot for his second season.

If Will Campbell struggles as he did during the playoff run, the Patriots have the ability to move him inside for Vera-Tucker or potentially look to first-round pick Caleb Lomu to step in at one of the tackle spots, while Morgan Moses can play on the left or right side.

Even Mike Onwenu has played everywhere on the offensive line during his career, adding flexibility.

Lamar Jackson

Bye: Week 13

Fantasy Playoffs: @PIT, CLE, @CIN

Jackson still ended 2025 with strong stats, throwing for 8.4 yards per pass attempt (his third straight season with at least 8.0 yards per attempt), 21 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.

But it was an uneven year with extreme highs and lows.

Through four weeks, Jackson completed 71.6% of his passes for 9.1 Y/A with 10 touchdowns and 1 interception.

At that point of the year, Jackson had logged three top-five scoring weeks and was the QB2 in overall scoring.

He then suffered a hamstring injury that sidelined him until Week 9.

Returning in Week 9, Jackson threw 4 touchdowns in a win against a feeble Miami pass defense.

Then things took a turn.

Over his final eight starts, Jackson was the QB29 in fantasy points per game (11.9).

He completed just 57.6% of his passes (28th) with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

He had the highest inaccurate throw rate in the league over that span (15.8%).

22.3% of his dropbacks resulted in a loss of -1.0 EPA or worse, which was ahead of only Shedeur Sanders (22.9%) and Geno Smith (23.2%).

The mounting injuries also prevented Jackson from utilizing his legs.

He ran for a career-low 26.8 yards per game last year.

His previous low as a starter was 51.3 rushing yards per game.

Jackson ended up with only 2.2 designed runs per game.

His previous low was 4.4 designed runs per game.

Over the first four games before any issues, Jackson rushed for 166 yards with games of 70, 13, 35, and 48 yards.

He then ran for 183 yards the rest of the way out.

Jackson dealt with hamstring, back, knee, ankle, and toe issues that regularly kept him out of practice, and he also missed one more game in Week 17.

While it is easy to give Jackson a hall pass for his decline last year, which was tied to injuries, this has been something gamers have had to deal with throughout his career.

Jackson has now missed at least one game in all but one season.

He has played in more than 13 games in a season only twice since 2021.

We can buy that Jackson will run more than we saw him do to close last year, but gamers still have to deal with Derrick Henry‘s presence potentially capping Jackson's upside in the touchdown department on the ground.

Since adding Henry, Jackson has had 1 rushing attempt inside the 5-yard line, while Henry has 42.

We do not know the full truth about what was going on behind the scenes last year, but there also appeared to be a schism between Jackson and the coaching staff.

Whether there was something larger going on under the surface between Jackson and John Harbaugh or Todd Monken, the Ravens have gone in a new direction this season, bringing in Jesse Minter as head coach and Declan Doyle as the offensive coordinator.

Doyle has spent time as an offensive coach under Sean Payton for the majority of his career and is coming off his first stint as an offensive coordinator under Ben Johnson in Chicago last year.

Doyle’s addition can lead to additional snaps for Jackson under center, which were already on the rise and helped him take off under Monken.

Jackson’s under-center rate has risen from 13.4% to 16.6%, then 29.1%, and finally 32.9% over the past four seasons.

When under center over that span, Jackson has led the NFL with a 74.7% completion rate while averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt (QB5) and a league-high 11.2% touchdown rate.

Jayden Daniels

Bye: Week 7

Fantasy Playoffs: ATL, @MIN, @JAX

The second season for Daniels was all but a lost one.

He played 38.4% of the offensive snaps.

He appeared in seven games but finished only four.

Daniels suffered a knee sprain in Week 2, a hamstring injury in Week 7, and then a dislocated elbow in Week 9.

Daniels has a leaner frame, which has raised concerns about his durability paired with his playstyle.

Even as a rookie, he left two games early because he was banged up.

When Daniels did play a complete game, he was still productive for fantasy.

In those weeks, he posted 19.6 fantasy points per game, which would have been QB7 for the season.

Even though he had health issues and a poor offensive environment, he scored at least 15 fantasy points in six of his seven appearances, showing he still has a high floor.

Daniels posted 5.7 rushing points per game (QB5).

That came after a rookie season in which he was QB5 in points per game (20.9), throwing to Zach Ertz, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Noah Brown as his primary options after Terry McLaurin.

That makes it a little easier to swallow Washington’s current set of surrounding talent.

While the current surrounding talent on the Washington offense is not sexy, you can squint and see Antonio Williams, Chig Okonkwo, and this backfield as on par with, if not better than, the 2024 outfit outside of McLaurin.

Washington is still the favorite to land Brandon Aiyuk.

But the real addition here is in adding passing efficiency to go with his rushing ability, which is the new offensive coordinator, David Blough.

While he was banged up in Year 2, Daniels took a step back as a passer last season when he was available.

After completing 69% of his passes as a rookie, Daniels completed 60.6% of his passes on his abbreviated snaps last season.

He went from 7.4 yards per pass attempt to 6.7 Y/A and from a 5.2% touchdown rate to 4.3%.

Blough will be tasked with putting Daniels in more favorable positions.

Blough has been with Washington the past two seasons as an assistant quarterbacks coach, but his real appeal comes from playing under Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell with Detroit.

Blough has repeatedly stated that he will bring a more balanced offensive approach, featuring more packages similar to the Detroit-style offenses, as opposed to what Washington did under Kliff Kingsbury, with Daniels playing more under center in 2026.

Over the past two years, when NFL passers have been under center, they have used pre-snap motion on 66.8% of dropbacks and run play action at 85.3%.

Johnson’s teams in Detroit and Chicago over those seasons had a 65.8% motion rate and an 88% play-action rate when they were under center.

Blough does not need to overlap completely with Johnson for improvement here.

Since entering the NFL, Daniels has been in shotgun for a league-high 92.9% of his dropbacks.

He has only 33 dropbacks from under center in the NFL.

That has led Daniels to use below-league-average rates of pre-snap motion (45.6%, 24th) and play action (24.8%, 18th).

Tier 3 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Joe Burrow
• Justin Herbert

A mini tier here with what I view as two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but they unfortunately do not offer the same rushing ceiling as the tier above.

Let’s face it.

If Lamar Jackson or Jayden Daniels flirt with 30 passing touchdowns, they are just strong bets to crush in fantasy football, given their high rushing upside.

Neither of these players here is a zero in the rushing department, but they need to have lofty seasons for passing touchdowns to compete with the front end of the position.

The good news is that I believe these are the two players I would give the best odds of leading the league in passing touchdowns entering the season.

Joe Burrow

Bye: Week 6

Fantasy Playoffs: @CAR, @IND, BAL

Burrow was once again impactful when on the field, completing 66.8% of his passes for a 6.6% touchdown rate.

Burrow is the only quarterback with a touchdown rate of 6% or higher in each of the past two seasons.

He ranked seventh in passing points per attempt (0.503) and averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game in the weeks he finished (QB9).

The rub once again was keeping him on the field.

Missing 10 games with a toe injury, Burrow has now missed significant time in three of his first six seasons.

When Burrow returned in Week 13, he was a QB1 scorer in five of those six games, with three top-five scoring weeks.

Burrow did not run due to his toe injury, finishing with 41 yards on the ground over his eight appearances.

The 5.1 rushing yards per game were a career low, but even when factoring in more potential for a healthy Burrow to move around more, he has never rushed for more than 257 yards or 16.1 yards per game in a season to date.

When the Bengals have their core offense on the field together, this is one of the best units in the league.

On Burrow’s plays with both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the field the past two seasons (548 attempts), he has completed 72.3% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt and a 7.3% touchdown rate.

On his plays missing either Chase or Higgins over that span (363 attempts), Burrow has completed 65.3% of his passes for 6.4 Y/A and a 5.5% touchdown rate.

An interesting component for 2026 is how much the Cincinnati defense will improve, and how many jailbreak game situations this team has had in recent years is impacted by that outcome.

Over the past two seasons, Cincinnati games have averaged a league-high 53.3 combined points per game.

The Bengals ranked 27th in points allowed per drive last season (2.44), down from 26th in 2024 (2.26).

Justin Herbert

Bye: Week 7

Fantasy Playoffs: SF, @MIA, KC

Herbert went through the wringer in 2025.

Rashawn Slater missed the entire season.

Joe Alt only appeared in six games.

He closed out the year with a broken left hand, finishing with a career-high 54 sacks.

That was the third-most sacks taken in the league behind Cam Ward (55) and Geno Smith (55).

Herbert was hit on a league-high 129 dropbacks, while he was ninth in total dropbacks (615)

For some added context, Bo Nix led the league with 669 dropbacks last season (54 more than Herbert).

He was hit 71 times.

The most-used offensive line combination for the Chargers last year was on the field for only 16.5% of the offensive snaps, the lowest rate in the NFL.

Bradley Bozeman and Zion Johnson were the only starters to play in every game.

Neither is on the team anymore.

With Joe Alt off the field (431 dropbacks), Herbert completed 65.9% of his passes (15th), averaging 7.3 air yards per pass attempt (25th), 6.9 yards per pass attempt (22nd), a 4.2% touchdown rate (26th), a 2.8% interception rate (28th), and a 10.1% sack rate (31st).

With Alt on the field (184 dropbacks), Herbert had completed 67.5% of his passes (10th), averaged 9.1 air yards per attempt (2nd), 8.3 yards per pass (4th), and had a 7.1% touchdown rate (2nd)

From Week 10 on (after losing Joe Alt), the Chargers averaged 4.6 yards per play (27th), had a 46.9% success rate on offense (27th), produced a play of 10 or more yards on 16.1% of their plays (29th), and scored 1.74 points per drive (27th).

They faced third down on 61.6% of their sets of downs over that span, which was behind only the Titans (62.1%).

Herbert averaged 0.56 fantasy points per dropback with Alt on the field compared to 0.43 without him.

That is the difference between ranking QB7 and QB21.

Herbert ranked QB5 in overall scoring before Week 10 and averaged more points per game than Drake Maye.

He was QB19 in scoring from Week 10 onward, finishing just one week as better than the QB16 in weekly scoring.

Looking for better fortune with the offensive line's health, Herbert will get to work with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel.

The Shanahan side of the “McShanahan” coaching tree has produced amazing results, making below-average passers look good on efficiency metrics.

This system has coaxed high-end efficiency from quarterbacks like Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Griese, Matt Schaub, Tua Tagovailoa, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, and even Nick Mullens.

Even with all the struggles that occurred during his tenure in Miami, Tagovailoa posted a touchdown rate of at least 4.8% every season under McDaniel.

For some context, Patrick Mahomes has not had a TD rate over 4.5% since 2022.

Jordan Love is one of four quarterbacks to have a 5% or higher touchdown rate in each of the past three seasons under Mike LaFleur.

Brock Purdy has had a touchdown rate of 7% or higher in three of the past four years under Kyle Shanahan.

Herbert has already been a good passer over multiple seasons, but I expect his involvement under McDaniel will help him win on the margins in the red zone and avoid third downs.

Herbert completed only 50.6% of his passes in the red zone last year, which ranked 28th in the league and was the lowest among all playoff passers.

He had a league-high 5.2% interception rate in the red zone while taking a sack on 8.3% of his dropbacks (25th).

The Chargers were 29th in red-zone touchdown rate (47.4%) and 19th in goal-to-go touchdown rate (70.8%).

Over four years with McDaniel in Miami, Tua completed 64.9% of his red-zone passes (3rd) and posted a 28% touchdown rate (4th).

Over his tenure in Miami, McDaniel’s offenses scored on 59.8% of their red-zone possessions (7th) and 76.3% of their goal-to-go possessions (7th).

Last year, the Chargers faced third down on 55% of their sets of downs.

Only the Titans were worse (57.2%).

The Chargers averaged 4.9 yards per play on first and second downs, which was 28th in the league.

They averaged 4.5 yards per first-down play, ahead of only the Browns (4.4).

In Miami, McDaniel’s offenses averaged 5.9  yards per play on early downs (5th) and faced third down at a 43.5% rate (5th).

Even last year, Miami averaged 5.7 yards per play on early downs (10th) and faced third down at a 46.2% rate (14th).

When this coaching tree has had a talented passer at the helm, it has been punctuated by MVP-level play – and that is not even counting Matthew Stafford from a year ago under Sean McVay, focusing on the Shanahan branches firsthand.

Aaron Rodgers won two MVPs in this system under LaFleur.

Matt Ryan won another.

Add in Herbert’s ability to add rushing production, and you can make a case that this system has not had this type of dual-threat passer at the helm since Mike Shanahan was coaching John Elway.

I do not expect McDaniel to try to make Herbert into a version of Tua in this offense, but he should get the ball out sooner.

With all of the injuries up front, Herbert averaged a career-high time to throw (2.81 seconds).

Running for his life, Herbert ended up scrambling on a career-high 8.5% of his dropbacks.

His previous career high in scrambling rate was 6.2%.

Herbert rushed for a career-high 498 yards, with 439 of those yards on scrambles.

His previous high in scrambling yardage was 311 yards.

While McDaniel will surely use Herbert’s athletic ability, I do expect his rushing production to decline somewhat, since the offensive line will be healthier (at least right now) and McDaniel will design an offense to get the ball out on time and in rhythm.

Tier 4 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Jalen Hurts
• Caleb Williams
• Brock Purdy
• Trevor Lawrence
• Jaxson Dart
• Bo Nix
• Patrick Mahomes
• Baker Mayfield

This is our first expanded tier at the position, and it is the one I will most often be drafting from in 1QB formats when the time comes.

All of these players offer dual-purpose upside on a weekly level.

Only a few of these guys are runners to the degree of a Jayden Daniels or Lamar Jackson, but you are getting rushing upside on a weekly basis from everyone here, while there is plenty of passing upside to carry weeks leaner in rushing output and the ability to elevate weeks with rushing production to week-winning scores.

Jalen Hurts

Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Playoffs: SEA, HOU, @SF

I understand that I am going against my own style here by not including Hurts in the same tier as Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson, but I have more reservations about his ceiling than I do about those two players.

2025 was an uneven season for the Philadelphia offense, with more negatives beneath the surface of a good record.

The Eagles were the only division winner from 2024 to repeat last season, but they did so on the strength of their defense more so than their offense.

Things did not go smoothly under first-time play-caller Kevin Patullo.

The Eagles finished 19th in scoring, the first time they were outside the top 12 since 2020.

They ranked 24th in yardage gained, after ranking eighth, eighth, third, and 14th in Nick Sirianni’s first four seasons with the team.

Early downs were a problem for the Eagles.

Philadelphia averaged 5.1 yards per play on first and second downs, which was 23rd in the league.

As a result, they faced third down on 48.1% of their set of downs, which was 20th in the league.

Getting to third down frequently, they converted only 37.1% of those third downs, which ranked 24th.

Only Carolina had a lower third-down conversion rate (36.1%) among 2025 playoff teams.

The Eagles had two wins last season in which Hurts did not complete a pass in the second half.

For as uneven as this offense was during the regular season, Hurts did end up throwing a career-high 25 touchdowns while matching his lowest career interception rate (1.3%).

It's not as if Hurts was outright bad; most of the issues stem from a lack of consistency.

Hurts had the lowest screen-target rate of his career (5.3%), which ranked 28th in the league.

18.1% of his throws were hitch routes, the second-highest rate of his career and fifth in the league (the highest rate of any remaining passer).

The Eagles used him less as a runner.

He did rush for 8 touchdowns, but it was his first season below double-digits as a starter.

Hurts averaged 3.3 designed runs per game, easily his lowest as a starter.

From 2021 to 2024, Hurts averaged 5.2, 6.7, 5.8, and 6.0 designed runs per game.

The Eagles still incorporated the Tush Push when they had the opportunity to, but as noted so far, the offense was far worse at reaching the end zone last year.

Hurts still took 8 of the 9 team rushing attempts from the 1-yard line, but the Eagles only ran 9 times from the 1-yard line after 18 times in 2024 and 13 times in 2023.

Philadelphia had 44 red-zone possessions last year, which ranked 28th in the league.

Hurts also scrambled on a career-low 7.6% of his dropbacks, compounding matters.

For fantasy purposes, he averaged 18.7 points per game, his first time being below 20 points per game as a starter.

That was still good for QB7, but the spike weeks were lacking.

Hurts had only three top-six scoring weeks over the season (all three were top-3).

That is something that has been dwindling for Hurts.

In 2022, Hurts posted 12 top-six scoring weeks (8 top-three weeks).

In 2023, he posted 10 top-six scoring weeks (2 top-three weeks).

In 2024, there were seven top-six scoring weeks (4 top-three weeks).

With the spike weeks drying up, Hurts has developed into more of a floor-based QB1 than the lid lifter he was to open his career as a starter.

Can he get back to those early heights?

The Eagles have traded away A.J. Brown, but still have a talented group of surrounding offensive talent with DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Makai Lemon, Dontayvion Wicks, Eli Stowers, and, of course, Saquon Barkley.

Patullo is out as offensive coordinator, with Sean Mannion getting his first shot as a play-caller.

Mannion comes over from serving as the offensive assistant and quarterbacks coach with Green Bay and Matt LaFleur.

Since Shane Steichen left after the 2022 season, the Eagles have had a new offensive coordinator every season.

This will be the sixth different play-caller that Hurts has had in the NFL.

In college, Hurts had four different play-callers.

Mannion is a wild card, but, keeping with the theme in this section, he is expected to take a passer who has largely played out of shotgun and have him more under center in 2026.

Hurts has been under center for only 14.4% of his career snaps to this point.

Over the past five seasons, Hurts has thrown the ball 34.3% of the time between the numbers.

That ranks last among 39 passers who qualify for the league’s pass rating.

There is some “chicken or the egg?” conversation starting to shape up around Hurts that should be answered this season, surrounding those rates.

Many observers believe that the lack of creativity and the limitations this passing game has faced are byproducts of Hurts' reluctance to diversify on his own.

When Hurts has been under center and has thrown over the middle of the field, however, he has been successful.

When under center over the past five seasons, Hurts has averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt (9th).

When throwing between the hashes, he has completed 77.4% of his passes (8th) with a league-high 9.6% touchdown rate over that span.

It is a matter of comfort, but the addition of Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers should help achieve more of those targets once they are up and running in the offense.

Hurts also has a great immediate layout to produce early in the season if things are coming together under Mannion.

The Eagles open the season against Washington, Tennessee, Chicago, Rams, Jacksonville, Carolina, Dallas, Washington, and the Giants before their Week 10 bye.

That is as good a schedule as an offense draws that deep into the season.

The downside is that, for as good as the Eagles' opening schedule is, a fantasy playoff schedule of the Seahawks in Week 15 and the Texans in Week 16 is as bad as it gets.

Hurts could always get into the end zone against those teams on the ground, but expecting ceiling output against those opponents takes an extreme step of faith. Gamers will likely need those defenses banged up by the time we get to that point in the year.

Overall, I believe Hurts is going to be a good pick for gamers at draft cost, especially during the fantasy regular season.

But the moving parts of the offense under Mannion, the loss of A.J. Brown, and the playoff schedule give me pause on him being someone I will regret bypassing in this tier.

Caleb Williams

Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Playoffs: @ BUF, GB, DET

Williams made wholesale improvements in his second season with Ben Johnson.

He went from a 39.8% success rate in 2024 (30th) to 42.5% this past season (22nd).

24.6% of his dropbacks resulted in a gain of 1.0 EPA or more (14th), up from 20.4% as a rookie (30th).

Only 14.2% of his dropbacks lost 1.0 EPA or worse (6th), down from 18.6% in 2024 (29th).

Johnson had Williams playing more under center in his second season.

After a 28.8% under-center rate as a rookie, Williams was at 48.4% last year.

That increased his play-action rate from 16.9% as a rookie to 33.3% last year.

A major hurdle Williams needs to clear is accuracy as a passer.

He still only completed 58.1% of his throws last year, ahead of only J.J. McCarthy (57.6%).

Williams had a 14.6% inaccurate-throw rate, the worst among 33 passers who qualified for the league’s passer rating.

Williams was also still sensitive to pressure.

Williams has a shaky completion rate regardless of pressure, but when he isn't pressured, he averaged 7.6 Y/A (13th), compared to 5.4 Y/A when pressured (26th).

That said, the growth under Johnson was evident as the season went on, providing the foundation for another step in Year 3.

Williams ended the year playing his best football, finishing QB7 in expected points per game over the final 10 weeks.

He was a QB1 scorer in six of those games, throwing multiple touchdowns in seven.

He added 388 rushing yards and 3 scores via the ground.

Understandably, Johnson does not want to completely take away the spade that Williams has in creating plays, but getting Williams continually more comfortable playing in rhythm and from the pocket is the key to another step forward.

We have all seen the highlight plays from Williams because they stand out, but he still forces himself into more outs than other passers.

69.4% of his dropbacks stayed in the pocket last year, which ranked 31st out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks.

In the pocket, Williams posted a 97.2 rating (13th) with 7.5 yards per pass attempt (14th), and a 4.7% touchdown rate (14th).

Outside of the pocket, Williams posted a 64.0 rating (29th), passing for 4.9 Y/A (29th), and a 4.3% touchdown rate (25th).

Brock Purdy

Bye: Week 8

Fantasy Playoffs: @ LAC, @ KC, PHI

After winning only six games in 2024, San Francisco bounced back with a 12-5 record last season.

That was an achievement considering this was another injury-filled campaign for the 49ers.

Purdy only played nine games.

The pass catchers were a revolving door again.

George Kittle (6 missed games), Ricky Pearsall (8), and Jauan Jennings (2) all missed multiple games, while Brandon Aiyuk never showed up.

Despite that, San Francisco was third in success rate on offense (46.3%) and sixth in points per drive (2.53).

And this was while the 49ers were 24th in rushing offense, the worst ranking a Kyle Shanahan offense has had since 2011, when he was in Washington.

31.4% of San Francisco’s passing plays gained 10 or more yards, the third-highest rate in the league behind New England (32.9%) and Seattle (32.5%).

After returning to the lineup in Week 11, Purdy completed 70.6% of his passes (2nd), averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt (8th), and posted a 7.6% touchdown rate (2nd).

A league-high 46.4% of his passes resulted in a first down or a touchdown over that stretch, while the league rate was 34.2%.

Purdy was once again at the top of the league in completion rate when pushing the ball downfield.

Purdy completed a league-high 61.1% of his throws 10 or more yards downfield.

He led the league in that department in 2024 as well, finishing second in 2023 among qualifiers for the league’s passer rating.

As a result of so much vertical passing, a league-low 39.2% of Purdy’s passing yardage came after the catch.

That rate has declined yearly since he entered the league, and 2025 featured the lowest YAC rate Purdy has received in his early career.

Finishing as QB8, QB12, and QB6 in points per game over the past three seasons, Purdy has a 7% touchdown rate in three of the past four years, while rushing output over the past two seasons has been a bonus.

Even though Purdy missed time with a turf toe injury, he still ran for 3.7 yards per carry and 16.3 yards per game.

The receiving room has added Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, and De’Zhaun Stribling, while Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall are all impact players when on the field.

Considering what Purdy has done over the past two seasons despite the number of injuries to the pass catchers, we have more confidence that he can overcome leaning on potentially aging-out veterans with their own injury issues.

The only downside for Purdy is that he has a tough closing stretch of games when gamers are chasing spike weeks.

Going on the road to face the Chargers and Chiefs in Weeks 15 and 16, he then closes the fantasy playoffs with a game against the Eagles.

Trevor Lawrence

Bye: Week 7

Fantasy Playoffs: @HOU, @ DAL, WAS

Liam Coen quickly turned around the Jaguars.

The Jaguars won 13 games in his first season as head coach, their most since 1999.

After their Week 8 bye, the Jaguars went 9-1, winning eight straight games with a league-best +153 point differential over that winning streak.

Jacksonville scored 2.83 points per drive over that period, the fourth-highest mark in the league.

Before their bye, the Jaguars were averaging 1.71 points per drive, which was 27th in the league.

A big part of that was a turnaround for Lawrence.

Jacksonville gained 10 or more yards on 31.4% of its passing plays over that run, the third-highest rate in the NFL.

Before that, they gained 10 or more yards on 23.3% of their passing plays, which ranked 25th.

After the bye, Lawrence averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt (7th) with a 6.6% touchdown rate (4th).

Before that, Lawrence was averaging 6.3 yards per pass attempt (26th) with a 3.5% touchdown rate (26th).

He averaged a league-high 22.6 fantasy points per game over that span.

He was a QB1 scorer in seven of his final eight games, posting five top-six scoring weeks over that span.

He averaged 16.0 fantasy points per game during the front half of the year, which ranked QB18.

While Jacksonville had a run of weak opponents over the back half of the season, we also saw this offense score 34 points in Denver as proof of concept that things have flipped for Lawrence in this passing game.

In that Denver game, Lawrence scored 31.2 fantasy points, connecting on 23 of 36 passes (63.9%) for 279 yards (7.8 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns, tacking on 20 yards and a score on the ground.

A large part of what unlocked this offense was a complete sliding-doors moment in which their ideal personnel fell into place.

The injuries and slow starts for Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, and Dyami Brown played a role in Jacksonville trading for Jakobi Meyers.

Hunter’s injury also opened the door for Parker Washington to be a primary player.

That shifted the receiver room in settling on Meyers playing more Z with the Jacksonville Jaguars than with the Raiders.

He went from a 59% slot rate with the Raiders to a 29% slot rate with the Jags.

That then allowed Thomas to move to the primary X position, and Washington into the primary slot role.

With all of Meyers, Washington, and Thomas on the field together, Lawrence posted 8.8 yards per pass attempt and 13.7 yards per completion.

Those yards per pass attempt would have ranked second in the NFL over the full season, while the yards per completion would have led the league.

There is some minor concern here that Jacksonville could get in its own way following a draft that saw it select two tight ends and express a desire to swerve toward league trends toward playing more multiple-tight-end sets. This is an offense that proved its best unit is 11 personnel.

I have faith that Coen is smart enough to recognize the best deployment of his roster, but he does come from the Sean McVay coaching tree, so there is a nonzero chance he tries to follow suit to some degree.

There should be a few regression spots here for Lawrence despite remaining bullish overall.

The first is that the Jaguars did rely on a high rate of turnovers to generate surplus touchdowns.

Jacksonville scored a league-high 110 points off takeaways last year.

They had a league-high 30 possessions start in opponents’ territory, which led to 13 touchdowns (43.5%).

Lawrence himself accounted for 9 of those touchdowns (7 passing and 2 rushing).

On drives that started on their side of the field, they ranked 18th in points per drive (2.01) but managed a 23.9% touchdown rate (12th).

Again, there should be some pullback here, given that Jacksonville is unlikely to sustain a turnover rate that high.

Lawrence also set career highs with 359 yards rushing and 9 touchdowns on the ground.

The latter is more likely to show some added regression.

Lawrence did have 4 one-yard touchdown runs, but the rest were all four-plus-yard scrambles.

He previously had 2 scrambling touchdowns over his career.

Jaxson Dart

Bye: Week 8

Fantasy Playoffs: CLE, @ DET, @ DAL

Dart made 12 starts as a rookie.

The Giants went 4-8 in those games, with Dart completing 63.7% of his passes for 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.

He also rushed for 487 yards and 9 touchdowns.

Dart’s rookie season generated plenty of excitement about this offense's upside; he just needs to protect himself and stay on the field.

The rushing contributions were a significant surplus to Dart’s production and the offense, but Dart was evaluated five times for a concussion as a rookie, including the preseason.

He was forced from Week 10 early with a concussion that led to him missing the following two weeks.

Dart had a high ceiling as a runner when he was not restricted as a rookie.

He had three top-three scoring weeks as a starter, with five top-six weeks and eight top-10 weeks.

But he was largely dependent on it, meaning it needs to remain static for gamers if we do not get a spike in passing output.

42.5% of Dart’s fantasy points came via rushing.

The only quarterback with a higher rate of rushing dependency who appeared in more than four games was Justin Fields.

When Dart was throwing the ball, he was 24th in points per pass attempt (0.416).

Dart was a bit unlucky throwing the ball, however.

He completed a league-low 17.9% (5 of 28) of his passes into the end zone.

The base rate for league qualifying passers was 38.6%.

Dart was accurate on those throws, posting only a 14.3% inaccuracy rate (6th lowest).

But he had a 10.7% drop rate, the third-highest in the league.

We should anticipate natural regression here towards the league baseline, but this top-down passing game does not inspire much confidence for a huge runout in passing overall.

There are a lot of moving parts here.

Dart did not have much help from his pass catchers, since Malik Nabers ran only 11 pass routes with Dart before his season-ending injury.

We do not know when Nabers will look like himself this season.

Expectations are that Nabers could open the season on PUP.

The team lost Wan’Dale Robinson while adding Darnell Mooney and Malachi Fields to the receiver room.

Isaiah Likely was added as a tight end.

The Giants have the look of a team that wants to run the football heavily.

That has been John Harbaugh's philosophy throughout his tenure with the Ravens.

Matt Nagy was hired as the new offensive coordinator, and Greg Roman as an assistant.

Roman’s offenses have been in 12 personnel for 34.8% of the time across his stops.

Nagy comes from a high utilization of 2TE sets at Kansas City.

The Chiefs were second in the league in 12-personnel rate over the past three seasons (30.1%) with Nagy there, and fourth in 13-personnel rate (7.9%).

It does not stop there.

The Giants also added fullback Patrick Ricard, who is familiar with Harbaugh and Roman.

It has been a while, but the Giants also look to have the makings of a formidable offensive line.

They selected Francis Mauigoa in the first round.

If Mauigoa is good out of the box as a rookie, this is an offensive line that has some strong spots on paper with Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor at the tackles.

Bo Nix

Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Playoffs: @ LV, BUF, @ NE

Nix is currently in some rare air to open his career.

He is one of only two passers to open their careers with back-to-back seasons throwing 25-plus passing touchdowns and rushing for 300-plus yards, joining Russell Wilson.

He is one of only three quarterbacks to open their careers with back-to-back seasons of 300-plus fantasy points, joining Cam Newton and Justin Herbert.

Nix has been QB10 and QB8 in fantasy points per game to open his career, which is above his current offseason price.

That showcases the upside Nix has had, but he has yet to gain consistency in his output.

Nix was up and down again in his second NFL season.

He led the NFL in pass attempts (612) but completed 63.4% of his passes (23rd), averaging 6.4 yards per attempt (28th).

The only playoff quarterback with a lower yards per pass attempt last season was Bryce Young (6.3 Y/A).

Nix averaged 10.1 yards per completion (28th), while 32% of his passes resulted in a first down or touchdown (25th).

This passing game was once again predicated on the short area.

Nix averaged 7.3 air yards per attempt (24th).

25.3% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage (27th) while only 28.1% were throws 10 or more yards downfield (30th).

For fantasy purposes, Nix has leaned on some explosive outings through two years, posting six top-six scoring weeks and 15 QB1 scoring weeks.

That also comes with another 12 weeks in the back half of weekly scoring.

The addition of Jaylen Waddle could stabilize and aid growth for Nix as a passer.

Courtland Sutton was on the field for 92% of the dropbacks last year.

Denver has young depth on rookie contracts who have flashed, but the next-closest Bronco (Troy Franklin) was at 71.8%.

Waddle will clear that easily while healthy.

When Denver threw the ball to wide receivers last season, they ranked second in the league in screen rate (12%), third in go-route rate (17.7%), and 12th in crossing-route targets (13.4%).

Those are all areas where Waddle can excel.

Waddle can also boost this passing game in creating explosives.

Denver was 23rd in the NFL last season in passing plays to gain 10 or more yards (24.2%) and 22nd in passing plays to gain 20-plus yards (7.4%).

An interesting note about Nix is that he ranked last in the NFL in dropback rate in the pocket (68.5%).

When Nix stayed in the pocket, he posted a 95.2 rating (14th), completing 69.2% of his passes (8th) for 7.0 Y/A (20th).

Outside the pocket, Nix had only a 69.2 rating (28th), completing 48.8% of his passes (28th) for 5.0 Y/A (28th).

He also had a 3.0% interception rate outside the pocket (27th), compared to 1.3% (7th) when he stayed in the pocket.

Nix can run, but he is more of a passer than a runner that gamers can lean into on a weekly level.

He has seven weeks in which he has rushed for 40 or more yards, but also another 11 weeks rushing for single-digit or negative yardage.

Returning from offseason ankle surgery, Nix may see a reduction in rushing output, but that could also force him to play more from the pocket, where he has been better to begin with.

Patrick Mahomes

Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Playoffs: NE, SF, @LAC

Mahomes is coming off another season in which he was mortal, with the Chiefs suffering their first losing record (6-8) with him as their starting quarterback.

Mahomes completed a career-low 62.7% of his passes last season (24th in the league among those who qualified for the league’s passer rating) for 7.1 yards per pass attempt (15th), a career-low 4.4% touchdown rate (24th), and a 2.2% interception rate (21st).

The drop in completion percentage was partly by design.

Entering last season, the Chiefs openly talked about their desire to push the ball downfield again.

And they tried.

22.1% of Mahomes’ throws were 15 or more yards downfield.

That was 10th in the league and his highest rate in a season since 2019.

13.1% of his throws were 20 or more yards downfield.

11th in the league and his highest rate since 2019.

The problem with that approach was that the Chiefs no longer have apex Tyreek Hill and receivers who win that department.

As a result, Mahomes only completed 39.6% of his throws 15-plus yards downfield (19th) and 31.8% of his passes 20-plus yards downfield (23rd).

This is not a one-year thing with Mahomes, either.

Mahomes set the bar so high in his early career that we have overlooked some of the issues this passing game has had in recent seasons.

Over the past three seasons, Mahomes is 17th in completion rate (66.3%), 23rd in yards per pass attempt (7.0 Y/A), 20th in touchdown rate (4.5%), and 20th in interception rate (2%).

I do believe much of the gaudy statistical divide has a lot to do with his early career overlapping with the apex arcs of Hill and Travis Kelce, and less to do with Mahomes' play actually declining.

It was a perfect storm of Hall of Fame talent intersecting at the right time.

We saw this happen for a stretch of Tom Brady's career as well.

Even the all-time greats can only elevate non-great supporting casts so much.

The Chiefs have not been able to recreate Hill’s explosiveness since he left, while Kelce is just running low on tread at this stage.

Pair that with a lackluster running game over the past few seasons (see below), and this is how we arrived at this point.

The Chiefs have struggled to find consistent pass catchers who threaten to win downfield and versus man coverage.

Mahomes was fourth in the league in the rate of man coverage faced last season (29%).

Against man coverage, he was 26th in quarterback rating (78.5), completing 53.9% of his passes (21st) for 5.6 yards per pass attempt (28th).

The Chiefs did not add anyone to this pass-catching room to move the needle in another direction.

They are asking Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy to be better in that department, which requires some faith.

Mahomes will be back working with Eric Bieniemy under Andy Reid this season, and the Chiefs are expected to run the ball better -if not more- after adding Kenneth Walker.

Mahomes was still able to coax out a QB4 fantasy points-per-game performance last year because he was running more than ever.

He posted a career-high 30.1 rushing yards per game and 5 rushing touchdowns.

A career-high 25.4% of his fantasy points came from rushing.

Returning from a torn ACL to close last year means that we cannot count on that replicating itself.

At least early on.

Early indications are that Mahomes is on schedule in his recovery.

Mahomes had his surgery on December 15, putting Week 1 right at nine months for his recovery.

All of those elements make it hard to fully lean into a bounce-back for Mahomes as a ceiling-crashing fantasy football option.

The silver lining is that this is by far the cheapest he has ever been for fantasy gamers to invest in.

The league also did the Chiefs a real solid (cue the conspiracy theories!) by scheduling the opening slate to allow Mahomes to get on track, even if he is limited at the start of the season.

The Chiefs have a rough opener against Denver in Week 1, but they then draw the Colts, Dolphins, and Raiders before an early-season bye in Week 5.

Things are rough coming out of that bye (Chargers, Seahawks, and Broncos), but then they draw the Jets, Falcons, and Cardinals.

Following that, there is shootout potential versus the Bills, Rams, Bengals, Patriots, 49ers, and Chargers to close the fantasy season.

Baker Mayfield

Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Playoffs: @ BAL, NO, @ ATL

The Buccaneers opened the season 6-2 before fading down the stretch, winning two of their final nine games.

That half of the season overlapped with Mayfield playing through a handful of injuries, something Tampa Bay dealt with everywhere last season.

Mayfield dealt with lingering ankle, knee, oblique, and shoulder injuries over the course of the year but never missed a game outright.

Up front, Tristan Wirfs (12 games played), Luke Goedeke (11), and Ben Bredeson (11) all missed five or more games.

Cody Mauch suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2.

The only Bucs starter to play in every game was center Graham Barton.

His own injuries, paired with injuries to the Tampa Bay receiver room, torpedoed his season.

Before the Week 9 bye, Mayfield had completed 63.9% of his passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt with 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Over the final nine games, he then completed 62.4% of his passes for 6.5 Y/A with 13 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

His depth of throw went from 8.6 yards downfield to 7.6 air yards per throw over that span, while his inaccurate throw rate rose 1.8% in those weeks.

He ended the year without logging a single QB1-scoring week over his final seven games, after doing so in seven of his opening 10.

The late-season collapse led Tampa Bay to move on from offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard after just one season.

Bringing Zac Robinson in for that job in 2026 will make it the 10th different coordinator Mayfield has had in the NFL.

He has bounced around a bit, but only once in his career did Mayfield have the same play-caller in back-to-back NFL seasons.

That said, Robinson is a familiar face.

Robinson was with the Rams when Mayfield stopped by in 2022 under Liam Coen.

Mayfield, of course, also had a stellar 2024 under Coen.

With Robinson expected to maintain a similar approach and Mayfield healthier, a bounce-back is in order.

Tampa Bay did lose Mike Evans, but they are getting healthier versions of Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan back this season, while Emeka Egbuka will step into a larger role in Year 2.

Mayfield has been a sneakily solid runner the past two seasons, rushing for 378 and 382 yards.

Tier 5 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Dak Prescott
• Matthew Stafford
• Jared Goff
• Jordan Love

This next tier is extremely close to the previous one; the only difference is the lack of rushing output.

But even without rushing insulation, all of these guys have the passing upside to crash the QB1 party.

If I were to open the year with any of them as my starter in 1QB formats while playing the waiting game, that would be more than acceptable and a testament to how strong (or flat, given league-wide staleness) the position is this year.

Dak Prescott

Bye: Week 14

Fantasy Playoffs: @ LAR, JAX, NYG

Prescott had another strong season in 2025, completing 67.3% of his passes (12th), averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt (10th), posting a 5% touchdown rate (14th), and a 1.7% interception rate (12th), while taking a sack on only 4.9% of his dropbacks (9th).

All of those rate stats are excellent when paired with the volume Dallas threw the ball.

Prescott had the second-most pass attempts in the league (600).

He led the league in completions (404) for the second time in the past three seasons, throwing 30 touchdowns.

36.7% of Prescott’s passes resulted in a first down or touchdown, which was 11th in the league.

Much of that volume was driven by a disaster of a defense.

The 2025 Cowboys allowed 2.88 points per drive, the second-most of any team over the past decade.

Games involving Dallas averaged 57.8 combined points per game, the fourth-most over that span and most since the 2020 Titans (58.1).

The Dallas defense looks improved on paper this year, but Prescott still has one of the best offensive supporting casts in the league to lean into for efficiency.

Prescott has been a top-eight scorer in points per game in five of his past six full seasons, even without the league’s worst defense.

An interesting aspect of the Dallas defense's improvement is that they look set to be better against both the run and the pass. However, they project to be much better up front against the run this season, which can still coax them into strong passing-game environments.

Dallas has a shootout appeal in the fantasy playoffs versus the Rams and Jaguars.

Matthew Stafford

Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Playoffs: DAL, @ SEA, @ TB

Stafford is coming off winning the league’s MVP Award, leading the NFL in passing yardage (4,707 yards) and passing touchdowns (46).

Sean McVay altered his offense last season to adjust to the current defensive climate.

Stafford played a career-high 59.6% of his snaps under center last year, the highest mark in the league.

Stafford took 250 dropbacks under center.

The next closest quarterback was at 189.

As a byproduct of playing more under center, Stafford used play action on a career-high 36.7% of his pass attempts, which also led the league.

On his under-center dropbacks, Stafford used play action 86.1% of the time.

On those dropbacks, Stafford threw 20 touchdowns to 1 interception.

A lot of that comes via utilizing all of their tight ends by deploying a league-high 30.5% 13-personnel rate.

The next closest team last year was at 13.3%.

Stafford threw 20 passing touchdowns with three or more tight ends on the field, the most in the 2000s.

The previous high was Patrick Mahomes in 2022 with 9.

Gamers are more knowledgeable than ever about pricing in expected regression.

We are seeing that with Stafford’s offseason ADP.

Stafford posted a career-high 7.7% touchdown rate (his previous high was 6.8% in 2021).

He threw the ball 54 times into the end zone, completing 48.1% of those for touchdowns.

The league rate on end-zone passes converted to touchdowns was 37.4%.

His previous touchdown rates on end-zone throws with the Rams were 41.8% in 2021, 26.1% in 2022, 35.1% in 2023, and 28.6% in 2024.

There have been 55 times in which a passer has posted a 7% TD rate on 200-plus throws since 1990.

49 of those players threw fewer touchdowns the following season.

If there is expected touchdown regression through the air, then Davante Adams stands to be most affected.

He had 28 end-zone targets, the most recorded since that data was tracked.

The next closest player had 18.

While regression is expected, not all regression is a boogeyman.

Stafford (QB15) has factored this into his draft cost this summer, leaving room for potential value since we do not have to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Last year was Stafford’s second 40-TD season under McVay.

Jared Goff

Bye: Week 6

Fantasy Playoffs: @ MIN, NYG, @ CHI

Goff had another strong campaign in 2025.

He completed 68% of his passes last season (5th), averaging 7.9 yards per attempt (6th), with a 5.9% touchdown rate (6th) and a 1.4% interception rate (7th).

For fantasy purposes, Goff was the QB12 in points per game (17.5).

Goff took advantage of his defense and running game falling apart to close last season, as well as a play-calling change under Dan Campbell.

He ended the fantasy season on a sour note as QB32 against the Vikings, but from Week 10 to Week 16, Goff was the QB5 in fantasy points per game (20.7), throwing 15 touchdowns to 2 interceptions over that span.

Even without those splits, Goff has been a rock-steady fantasy producer since joining the Lions.

He has thrown at least 29 touchdown passes in each of the past four seasons and is the only quarterback to have 30 or more touchdown passes in each of the past three seasons.

Including the postseason, Goff has led the NFL in passing touchdowns (135) since 2022.

Goff’s surrounding talent pool (and coaching scheme) has been a lift for him, generating passing scores.

57% of all passing scores are throws that actually go into the end zone.

Over the past four years, 57% of Goff’s passing touchdowns have been on throws that were NOT thrown into the end zone.

Over the past four years, Goff has thrown 22 (2nd), 22 (1st), 19 (tied for 2nd), and 14 (tied for 5th) passing touchdowns on throws outside of the end zone that were run into the paint by pass catchers.

The Lions are still an offense we want to invest in, and not only is Goff affordable, but Detroit has a strong opening layout to make him a prime target at cost to open the year with if you are waiting on a quarterback in drafts.

The Lions open the season with games against the Saints, Bills, Jets, Panthers, and Cardinals.

They play only four outdoor games during the fantasy regular season, with one of those coming in Week 17 against the Bears.

Their outdoor games before that are in Buffalo (Week 2, so few temperature concerns), the Panthers in Week 4 (ditto), and Miami in Week 9.

Since joining the Lions, Goff is averaging 19.4 points per game indoors, which is QB10 over that span.

Jordan Love

Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Playoffs: BUF, MIA, @ CHI

Love produced another solid campaign in 2025.

Love finished sixth in quarterback rating (101.2), completing 66.3% of his passes (15th) for 7.7 yards per pass attempt (8th), 11.6 yards per completion (10th), a 5.2% touchdown rate (10th), and a 1.4% interception rate (6th).

He posted a career-high 47.3% success rate (7th) and was second in the league in EPA per dropback (0.22).

Love is one of four quarterbacks to have a 5% or higher touchdown rate in each of the past three seasons.

Those numbers came last year in a season filled with injuries throughout the offense, especially on the offensive line.

Love was pressured on 39.5% of his dropbacks, a career high.

The starting offensive line was on the field together for only 17.6% of offensive snaps last season, which ranked 30th in the league.

With Zach Tom on the field last season, Love faced pressure on 37.3% of his dropbacks, compared to 44% with Tom off the field.

With Tom on the field, Love had a 1% interception rate and a 3.2% sack rate.

With Tom off the field, Love has a 2.1% interception rate and a 7.2% sack rate.

That production for Love also came with another revolving door of pass catchers.

Tucker Kraft was on his way to a massive breakout season last year before an ACL injury cut his season short in Week 9.

Romeo Doubs was the only Green Bay wide receiver to run a route on 50% of the dropbacks last season (74.3%).

Christian Watson started the season recovering from an ACL injury he suffered in 2024.

A fractured collarbone in Week 2 derailed Jayden Reed’s 2025.

That injury limited him to seven games.

Matthew Golden sustained a shoulder injury in Week 10 that limited him for the rest of the year.

From Week 10 onward, Golden played only 28.1% of the passing snaps.

With Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks no longer on the roster, the Packers should run a more condensed wide receiver unit, with Christian Watson at the X, Matthew Golden at the Z, and Jayden Reed in the slot.

Love himself was part of those injuries on offense last year.

He missed two full games and left another in the first half.

This is the second year in a row that Love has missed multiple games.

Love is still at his apex (turning 28 this season), but another factor at play that could boost him in fantasy is that the Packers may have to drop back to throw more.

The Packers have ranked 29th and 31st in dropback rate the past two seasons.

The defense looks worse on paper, and Micah Parsons is expected to be eased back in after an ACL injury.

We also have an unresolved matter surrounding Josh Jacobs, and the Packers have little to no depth to rely on after him.

Even if Jacobs is not suspended, if he misses any time, this team should be pushed to lean more on Love than what is behind him.

Green Bay has shootout potential in fantasy playoffs against the Bills and Bears, with a potential cupcake in the middle of that at home against Miami.

Tier 6 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Kyler Murray
• Malik Willis
• Tyler Shough
• Daniel Jones
• Cam Ward

We are in QB2 territory in terms of draft cost, and this is the tier of those QB2 options who I believe offer the most fantasy bang for your buck and high-upside outcomes.

Kyler Murray

Bye: Week 6

Fantasy Playoffs: DET, WAS, @ NYJ

I have entered the offseason anticipating that Murray will be Minnesota's starting quarterback and that any competition between him and J.J. McCarthy will be short-lived this summer.

If that runs south, reevaluate for an update.

Murray is coming off a 2025 season in which he played only five games due to a foot injury.

Staying on the field has been an issue for Murray, as he has played just one full season since 2020, missing multiple games due to a shoulder injury, a high ankle sprain, a torn ACL, and a hip pointer before last year’s foot ailment.

Before his foot injury, Murray was off to the worst start of his career, throwing for a career-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt and posting his lowest passing yardage per game.

For fantasy purposes, Murray was QB14 or worse in all five games he played, posting his fewest fantasy points per game of his career.

Murray was a top-12 scorer in points per game over his first six seasons in the league, but we had lost ceiling weeks for multiple seasons, even before last season.

Over the past four years, Murray has had just one top-three scoring week and seven top-six scoring weeks in his 41 games.

In 2024, he was a QB1 scorer in 7 of his 17 games.

My biggest concern for Murray is the current state of the NFL and some passing tendencies that he shares with players such as Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson, who were productive early in their careers when the NFL was more spread-based and wide open.

Both of those players also had support in changing climates from fantasy gamers.

Those passers have since struggled as passing games have become more compact, forcing quarterbacks to play more efficiently and to attack the middle of the field.

That has always been a hangup for Murray, given his size.

Among throws between the hashes over the past four seasons (when the defensive shift began), Murray ranks 43rd in rating (81.5) out of 50 passers with 500-plus attempts.

The early concerns for Murray and Kevin O’Connell will be the marriage of his scheme to Murray’s playstyle.

O’Connell has utilized a high rate of under-center passing and play action, both of which Murray has not done much of.

Minnesota passers have been under center for 46.9% of their snaps under O’Connell, the third-highest rate in the league over the past four seasons.

In 2025, that rate was 44.8% (8th).

Playing under center more often has led to a 29.7% play-action rate under O’Connell, fourth in the NFL.

In 2025, Minnesota had a 27.7% play-action rate (9th highest).

Kyler has been under center for 14.7% of his career snaps.

Only Jalen Hurts (14.4%) and Jayden Daniels (7.6%) have lower rates since Murray entered the league.

Murray has used play action on 21.5% of his dropbacks, 27th in the league since his rookie season.

Murray has been successful when he has been under center and used play action (203 career dropbacks), completing 68% of his passes for 8.5 Y/A and a 5.8% touchdown rate.

We saw this happen in philosophy last year in Arizona, both with and without Murray.

Over five weeks, Arizona had an under-center play rate of 20.9% with Murray (26th) and a 21.1% play-action rate (28th).

Over the next three games, transitioning to Jacoby Brissett, the Cardinals had a 46.3% rate under center (10th) and a 38.7% play-action rate (2nd).

We have covered the reasons there are big-picture concerns here for Murray, but this is a definite jolt to his immediate value.

Even if we price in Murray’s injury history, passing struggles, and a potential short-term investment, all things that could open the door for McCarthy to start again in-season, this is a spike for Murray, climbing into the high-end QB2 range (QB10-QB16) with greater upside.

Minnesota QB Production in Games Started Under Kevin O’Connell

We have seen strong play in this system before, so Murray can get back into the QB1 landscape.

We have seen Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins deliver as QB1 scorers without any rushing production.

Carson Wentz and Nick Mullens having short-term success also provides a carrot to chase here, helping Murray rebound in this system.

At this price, it's easy to lean into the potential upside angle for Murray in Minnesota in 1QB leagues and play around the negatives here.

If Murray is bad, then you throw him back into the player pool and move on.

While Murray has dipped as a passer in recent seasons, he is still capable of using his legs.

He has rushed for at least 30 yards per game in every season of his career.

Before his injury last season, Murray had a career-high 8.8% scramble rate.

This followed an offseason in which he said he would run more often on his own.

Murray was averaging 8.5 yards per scramble and 29.0 scramble yards per game, which was third in the league.

It is unlikely we will ever see the double-digit rushing-touchdown season Murray had in 2020 again, but he can still provide an outlet for fantasy production through his mobility.

The Vikings also have a favorable schedule to lean into, having our easiest passing schedule for the season.

Minnesota opens the season with games against the Packers, Bears, Bucs, Dolphins, and Saints.

If Murray is playing well and still under center to close the year, they get the Lions, Commanders, and Jets in the fantasy playoffs.

Malik Willis

Bye: Week 6

Fantasy Playoffs: @ GB, LAC, BUF

Willis joins a new staff in Miami that includes many familiar faces from his stint in Green Bay.

Jeff Hafley was hired as the new head coach, while Jon-Eric Sullivan was hired as the general manager.

Willis was able to resurrect his career by backing up Jordan Love in Green Bay, which gives additional context on why the new regime pursued him.

Over the past two seasons with the Packers, Willis completed 70 of 89 passes (78.7%) for 972 yards (10.9 yards per pass attempt) with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions.

Despite the hyper-efficient play, we still do not have a large sample size for him in the NFL.

Willis has played 548 career snaps with only six starts through four years in the NFL.

We have two more games with Willis playing at least 60% of the snaps.

Willis is the type of fantasy asset capable of spiking for front-end fantasy output, logging two top-six-scoring weeks over his three starts with Green Bay.

He led all quarterbacks over the past two seasons in fantasy points per snap (0.73).

For some context, Lamar Jackson (0.62) and Josh Allen (0.61) are next up.

The small sample and the move from Green Bay to Miami cast plenty of doubt on Willis' overall upside since the Dolphins are clearly in a reset season, but this is a shot in the arm for his value.

We know Willis can run, which will be the vehicle for a higher floor for fantasy.

Willis had a 14.5% scramble rate with Green Bay, which was the highest in the league.

Jayden Daniels was second over that stretch at 13.4%.

Willis has posted 8.9 yards per scramble, which is fifth in the league.

Even with the lack of confidence in his supporting cast of pass catchers, that rushing production will insulate Willis as a fantasy starter over a full season, while giving him weekly upside.

Since 1990, 47 quarterbacks have rushed the ball 100-plus times in a season.

41 of those players have been a top-12 quarterback in fantasy points per game.

While Willis climbs into the upside QB2 range, his ultimate ceiling will hinge on his passing production keeping pace.

This is still a prove-it deal for Willis, and we have seen athletic quarterbacks who are not reliable passers bounce around in recent years, including Justin Fields and the aforementioned Kyler Murray.

Willis has a small sample size as a thrower with a lot of handholding.

15.7% of his passes were screens.

The only passer to throw 50-plus times over the past two seasons with a higher screen rate is Chris Oladokun (20%).

With Willis on the field, his offenses have dropped back to pass only 40% of the time.

With Green Bay, that rate was 38.7%.

I do believe that his last start with the Packers in Week 17 last year against Baltimore was the most encouraging sign of being bullish on Willis.

In that game, Green Bay was missing starters up front on the offensive line, Josh Jacobs left with an injury, and the offense was forced to rely on him more as a passer.

Green Bay had a 75% dropback rate on the offensive snaps Willis played that night.

We are once again working on a light sample, but Willis has also held up when pressured.

Under pressure with Green Bay, Willis was 17-of-20 (85%) for 353 yards (17.6 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.

Those are unsustainable rates (league averages are a 49.3% completion rate and 6.3 Y/A when pressured over the past two seasons), but the last few paragraphs here keep the lights on for Willis as a thrower of the football when under pressure.

Tyler Shough

Bye: Week 8

Fantasy Playoffs: @ TB, ARI, @ ATL

All the changes New Orleans made this offseason are setting them up to get a good look at Shough as the potential quarterback of the future.

Taking over as the starter in Week 9, Shough completed 68% of his passes through the remainder of the season, which was sixth in the league over that stretch.

During that period, he averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt (16th), a 3.1% touchdown rate (32nd), a 1.8% interception rate (11th), and an 8.7% sack rate (27th).

Shough’s biggest thorn as a rookie was downfield passing.

He completed 10 of his 38 (26.3%) throws of 20 or more yards downfield over that stretch, which was 27th in the league.

He also needed some assistance from Kellen Moore in changing the picture for the defense.

On 221 dropbacks with pre-snap motion, Shough completed 71.4% of his passes (3rd) for 8.1 yards per pass attempt (5th).

On 154 dropbacks without pre-snap motion, Shough completed 61.8% of his throws (20th) for 6.1 Y/A (29th).

The team went 5-4 with Shough as the starter, following a 1-8 record.

Their wins were against Carolina (twice), Tampa Bay, the Jets, and Tennessee, so there is plenty to still look for in terms of punching up in competition.

For fantasy, Shough ranked 16th in points per game (16.6) after taking over.

He finished in the top half of the weekly position scoring in seven of his final eight games, with three top-10 weeks over that span.

As a surprise for gamers, Shough rushed for 186 yards (16.9 yards per game) and 3 touchdowns.

The Saints had a light schedule to close out the year, but to be fair to Shough, he was working with a skeleton crew aside from Chris Olave.

Year 1 under Kellen Moore provided several positives, but the backfield production was not one of them.

New Orleans running backs combined for:

• 3.7 YPC (29th)
• 34% success rate (30th)
• 6.7% rate of runs for 10+ yards (31st)
• 0.96 yards before contact per rush (28th)
• 2.76 yards after contact per rush (29th)

Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller, and Devin Neal all picked up injuries that cost them games.

In the final game of last season, the Saints handed the ball off to Audric Estime 21 times.

To resolve matters, the team added Travis Etienne to the backfield.

Etienne rebounded from a down 2024 season that featured career lows in several areas, turning 296 touches into 1,399 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns with Jacksonville a year ago.

The Saints were ravaged up front.

Their most frequently used offensive line combination was on the field for only 16.9% of their plays in 2025.

Only the Chargers had a lower rate (16.5%).

If the line has more fortune staying together, this is a solid unit.

In an effort to bolster their unit heading into 2026, the Saints also signed guard David Edwards from the Bills.

Kelvin Banks and Taliese Fuaga are both on rookie contracts.

Cesar Ruiz allowed only a 3.5% pressure rate, while Edwards allowed 4.7%.

Ruiz still has two years left on his current contract and is only 27; he just needs to stay on the field.

Missing three more games in 2025, Ruiz has not played a full season since 2021.

Erik McCoy has the same story.

McCoy has only played seven games in each of the past two seasons.

Shough had Chris Olave, but he also closed the year with Kevin Austin and Mason Tipton as WR2 and WR3 in the offense.

The Saints also selected Jordyn Tyson with the No. 8 selection in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Tyson has one of the best production resumes in this class.

Over four seasons at Colorado and Arizona State, Tyson has averaged 4.8 receptions (6th in this class), 69.2 yards per game (4th), and 0.67 receiving touchdowns per game (3rd).

All of those additions are reasons to keep the lights on for Shough building on his close to 2025.

Shough is another player here with a promising overall layout.

The Saints have our 12th-best-ranked passing schedule for the season, while Shough has fantasy playoff games against the Bucs, Cardinals, and Falcons.

Daniel Jones

Bye: Week 13

Fantasy Playoffs: @ TEN, CIN, @ CLE

Jones had a career year with the Colts last season, setting career highs in completion percentage (68%), yards per pass attempt (8.1), yards per completion (11.9), success rate (52%), and rating (100.2).

He threw 19 touchdowns, his most in a season since throwing 24 as a rookie in 2019.

He then suffered a torn Achilles tendon in Week 14 (while playing on a fractured leg), missing the rest of the season.

Jones is expected to be available for training camp, but injuries have been a thorn in his side throughout his career.

He has now missed time in every season but one due to injury.

While Jones has been on schedule to be ready to open the year, his Achilles injury was to his right side, which is his plant foot.

The last time we saw this was with Kirk Cousins, who struggled with mobility and with pushing the ball downfield, returning to Atlanta.

Jones has already been a volatile player for fantasy.

He opened last season extremely hot.

Over the opening eight games of last season, the Colts were 7-1.

Jones had completed 71.2% of his passes (3rd in the league) for 8.5 yards per pass attempt (3rd) and a 5.3% touchdown rate (15th) and a 1.2% interception rate (7th).

He led the NFL with a 53.2% success rate over that stretch.

The team then went 1-3 over Jones’ next four full games.

He completed 61.9% of his passes (17th), averaged 7.3 Y/A (11th), and posted a 4.5% touchdown rate (17th) in those games, with a 3% interception rate (24th) and 7 fumbles.

The Colts are willing to find out which small sample size is the truth moving forward.

We have seen this before with Jones in his career, and he has regressed, but that is all being priced in again for Jones in fantasy to alleviate the risk of chasing the front half of 2025 becoming a reality moving forward.

Cam Ward

Bye: Week 9

Fantasy Playoffs: IND, @ LV, PIT

Ward had plenty of rookie-year struggles.

He ended his first season 31st in rating (80.2), completing 59.8% of his passes (31st) for 5.9 yards per pass attempt (33rd), 9.8 yards per completion (32nd), and a 2.8% touchdown rate (33rd).

He was sacked 55 times, tied for the most in the league.

13.7% of Ward’s throws were inaccurate, which ranked 29th.

Ward made a handful of big-time throws that showcased what made him the No. 1 pick last year.

Now, he needs to find his footing with the changes made within the organization.

The Titans are committed to Ward and will be looking for a second-year spike, as the Bears did in Year 2 with Caleb Williams, whose rookie issues overlap with the areas that plagued Ward in his first season.

Ward's rookie season was filled with highs that showcased his ability to create out of structure and with unique arm strength and angles.

That was paired with inconsistent accuracy, with Ward taking a league-high rate of sacks, and a coaching staff that was let go during the first year.

Williams made huge strides in Year 2 with Ben Johnson.

Under Robert Saleh, the Titans have brought in Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator.

Daboll may not have the cachet of Johnson, but he has been associated with the early-career breakout of Josh Allen and a resurgent season for Daniel Jones, which landed him his first contract extension, while Jaxson Dart was productive in his system last season before leaving New York.

Part of Ward’s first-year struggles stemmed from a limited arsenal of pass catchers, which forced the team to rely on inexperienced options.

Tennessee wide receivers combined for 9.2 receptions per game (26th), 107.2 yards per game (27th), and 9 touchdowns (28th).

The players with 50-plus targets on the Titans last year were Elic Ayomanor (89), Chig Okonkwo (79), Chimere Dike (74), Gunnar Helm (55), Van Jefferson (52), and Tyjae Spears (50).

Wan’Dale Robinson is coming off his best season, catching 92 of 140 targets for 1,014 yards and 4 touchdowns.

One thing Robinson will surely draw is third-down targets.

After a league-high 38.9% target share on third down in 2024, Robinson had 31.1% of the team's targets on third down in 2025 (8th in the league).

This was a major problem area for this passing game in 2025.

Ward was 31st in the league in the rate at which third-down throws resulted in a first down (28.3%).

The highlight addition was selecting Carnell Tate with the No. 4 overall pick.

53% of Tate’s targets resulted in a first down or touchdown (2nd in this class), while 17.7% of his receptions were scores (5th).

Tate was one of the best boundary receivers in the country last season, catching 12 of 14 contested targets (85.7%) and 11 of 17 (64.7%) on throws 20 or more yards downfield.

With Chig Okonkwo leaving in free agency, Gunnar Helm will have more opportunities in 2026.

Helm ran a route on only 38% of dropbacks, but he was targeted on 22.4% of his routes, trailing only Harold Fannin (24.7%) and Tyler Warren (22.4%) among rookie tight ends.

Helm’s 1.45 yards per route ranked fifth among rookie tight ends.

Tier 7 Fantasy Football QBs:

• C.J. Stroud
• Sam Darnold
• Bryce Young
• Aaron Rodgers

This is the portion of the QB2 stable that may not be as exciting as the previous group in terms of upside, but they are more stable options for starting the full season.

These are better for real football than fantasy options, but these are quarterbacks you can comfortably add to a QB2 platoon and play in favorable matchups, even if they are more in the streaming bucket overall.

We have even seen every passer here punch up for stretches over their careers as a QB1 when everything aligns, so do not completely sell them short.

C.J. Stroud

Bye: Week 8

Fantasy Playoffs: JAX, @ PHI, @ GB

Stroud has been the QB23 and QB28 in points per game the past two seasons after his rookie-year breakout.

He was a mixed bag in 2025.

He completed a career-high 64.5% of his passes while improving his touchdown rate (4.5%) and interception rate (1.9%).

He also threw for 217.2 yards per game, the fewest of his career.

Stroud’s 42.3% success rate ranked 24th in the league.

The season ended on an extremely bitter note, with Stroud throwing 4 interceptions in a Divisional Round loss in New England.

One of the disappointing parts of this new offense under Nick Caley was the lack of top-down creativity.

The Texans used pre-snap motion on 49.9% of Stroud’s dropbacks (21st) and play action on 24.8% (19th).

The downer is that when Stroud did get to use play-action, he averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt (10th) and 13.1 yards per completion (7th).

When the Texans used motion, Stroud averaged 7.8 Y/A (7th) with 11.7 yards per completion (9th).

Without either, Stroud averaged 6.0 Y/A (30th) and 9.6 yards per completion (31st).

Stroud missed three games due to a scary concussion in Week 9.

Before the injury, he was using his legs at the highest rate of his career.

Stroud had a 6.8% scramble rate over eight weeks, ranking 10th in the league.

Returning from his concussion, Stroud then only scrambled on 3.1% of his dropbacks, 24th in the league.

I actually do believe that Stroud is going to play well this season.

I believe the Texans have thrown enough at their offensive line to improve in that area, while adding David Montgomery to this scheme provides a much-improved rushing component, paired with the line additions.

Houston should be much more balanced and on-schedule offensively this season.

Stroud has an attachment to a talented pass-catching unit as well.

Even buying Stroud as a player who will play well, it is hard to fully lean into that leading to a wealth of fantasy points.

The Houston defense is still excellent at mitigating high-scoring game environments, and Montgomery’s presence gives the offense a better runner near the end zone.

Sam Darnold

Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Playoffs: @ PHI, LAR, @ CAR

Darnold is coming off career highs in completion rate (67.7%) and yards per pass attempt (8.5 Y/A).

He threw 25 touchdowns.

As good as that season was for the Seattle fanbase and for hoisting the Lombardi, Darnold was QB24 in points per game (15.1) while finishing as the QB34 in expected points per game.

Seattle is due for some top-down offensive regression in 2026 with a harder schedule and the loss of Klint Kubiak.

Reunited with Kubiak, Darnold was under center for a career-high 53.9% of his snaps.

Darnold was one of the most effective passers using play action last season, averaging 11.4 yards per pass attempt (2nd) with a league-high 16.8 yards per completion on those attempts.

With Kubiak taking a head coaching job in Las Vegas, the Seahawks brought in Brian Fleury as their new offensive coordinator.

Fleury is a first-time play-caller, but he does have a foundation similar to Kubiak's.

Fleury was with the 49ers from 2019 through last season.

He was even in the same building as Darnold when he was with the 49ers in 2023, serving as the tight end coach that season.

Teams did adjust to Seattle last year, so even if Kubiak were returning, we would still have some question marks for fantasy upside.

Over the final 10  games through the postseason, Darnold averaged 6.8 air yards per attempt (22nd), with 29.5% of his passes traveling 10 or more yards downfield (25th) and 7.4% traveling 20 or more yards downfield (28th).

Before that, Darnold was averaging 9.0 air yards per pass attempt (3rd), with 39% of his passes going 10 or more yards (4th) and 14.7% of his throws 20 or more yards downfield (5th).

Opponents played zone coverage on 77.2% of Darnold’s snaps over that run to close the season (5th highest).

Seattle saw a higher two-high look rate (49.5%) after a previous rate of 43.4%.

On non-play-action passes, Darnold still averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt (4th) and 11.1 yards per completion (13th), but a 3.7% touchdown rate (29th).

Seattle's strength of schedule was also favorable.

Seattle faced only four defenses all season that were in the top-10 in passing points allowed per attempt, a statistic I hold in high regard because it is all-encompassing.

Those defenses were Houston, Carolina, Minnesota, and then New England.

Darnold did not throw multiple touchdown passes in any of those games.

Darnold has had six games with a yards-per-attempt figure below 7.0.

Four of those came in the matchups against Houston (6.9 Y/A), Carolina (5.4 Y/A), Minnesota (4.9 Y/A), and New England (5.3 Y/A).

Darnold completed fewer than 60% of his passes four times.

Three of those were against Houston (54.8%), Minnesota (53.8%), and New England (50%).

I expect both the Rams and 49ers to be significantly improved against the pass this season in their division, while Seattle opens with New England, has the Chargers and Broncos on the schedule, and playoff matchups against the Eagles, Rams, and Panthers.

Bryce Young

Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Playoffs: CIN, @ PIT, SEA

Young has opened his career as QB41, QB29, and QB26 in fantasy points per game.

He did not stuff the stat sheet again in 2025, completing 63.2% of his passes (22nd), averaging 6.2 yards per attempt (29th), 9.8 yards per completion (30th), and posting a 4.7% touchdown rate (19th).

He threw for 200 yards in only four games.

Carolina ran an ultra-conservative game plan, throwing the ball 4% below expectations, which was 29th in the league.

Was that by design or insulation?

Over his rookie contract, Young has completed 61.4% of his passes (35th) for 6.0 Y/A (37th), a 3.5% touchdown rate (31st), and a 2.2% interception rate (26th).

In 2025, he completed 42.7% of his throws 10 or more yards downfield, which ranked 28th in the league.

Pair that with 72.6% of his passes going shorter than 10 yards downfield, the seventh-highest rate in the league.

Aaron Rodgers

Bye: Week 9

Fantasy Playoffs: BAL, CAR, @ TEN

At age 42, Rodgers was 23rd in EPA per dropback (0.01) and 32nd in success rate (39.6%), ahead of only Cam Ward (36.9%).

He completed 65.6% of his throws (16th), averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt (27th), posted a 4.8% touchdown rate (16th), and a 1.4% interception rate (8th).

Protecting the football was still something Rodgers did well, and he did so by taking next to no chances pushing it downfield and showing zero interest in being touched at this stage of his career.

Rodgers had the quickest time to throw from the snap in the league (2.52 seconds), paired with the shortest depth of target (6.0 air yards).

Only 25.5% of his throws went 10 or more yards downfield, the lowest rate in the league.

The league average among qualifiers for rating was 33.1%.

Rodgers threw a league-high 31.7% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.

The league rate in that department was 21.3%.

If Rodgers does return, he will once again get a chance to work with Mike McCarthy.

That combination was together for the apex run of Rodgers’ career through the 2018 season when McCarthy was let go in-season.

Tier 8 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Geno Smith
• Jacoby Brissett
• Kirk Cousins
• Fernando Mendoza
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Michael Penix
• Deshaun Watson
• Shedeur Sanders

We are in the back end of QB2 options.

These are players who we expect to make starts in 2026 but are fragile to start the full season.

Geno Smith

Bye: Week 13

Fantasy Playoffs: @ ARI, NE, MIN

Smith is the quarterback in this tier I would give the best odds of starting the full season, and I like his surrounding skill players and offensive line.

He is a viable early-season option.

But there is some concern that the Jets just will not win enough games to justify keeping him as the starter at the end of the year, even if he plays above expectations.

Paired with a late-season bye, the end-of-season schedule could be where they give Cade Klubnik a look if they are staring down the 2027 QB class.

Smith will be 36 in October, coming off a disastrous runout with the Raiders last season.

Smith was still viable in completing 67.4% of his passes (11th among qualifiers for the league’s passer rating), but he only managed 6.8 yards per attempt (24th), 10.0 yards per completion (29th), a 4.2% touchdown rate (26th), a 3.8% interception rate (31st), and took a sack on a league-high 10.9% of his dropbacks.

To be fair, that is an improvement in many areas over what the Jets received in 2025.

Jacoby Brissett

Bye: Week 14

Fantasy Playoffs: NYJ, @ NO, LV

Moving on from Kyler Murray to open the new season, Arizona is once again back in the market searching for a long-term answer at quarterback.

Jacoby Brissett will open the year as the starter.

Brissett made 12 starts for the Cardinals a year ago, with the team going 1-11 in those games.

To be fair to Brissett, he did play well in his first three starts last year when taking over for Murray.

Arizona was competitive in losses to the Colts and Packers, then defeated the Cowboys on the road.

Brissett completed 65.8% of his passes for 7.7 yards per attempt, with a 5.4% touchdown rate and a 0.9% interception rate during those games.

Then the team sustained so many mounting injuries on both sides of the ball that things completely unraveled for the organization, leading to all of the offseason changes.

Over the final nine games of the 2025 season, the Cardinals led for just 47 offensive snaps, ahead of only the Raiders (36) and Jets (30).

Brissett then completed 64.9% of his passes for 6.7 Y/A, a 4.6% touchdown rate, and a 1.9% interception rate.

He was sacked 30 times over that span, the second-most in the league.

Regardless of how much runway Brissett gets in 2026, we know he and Gardner Minshew (should he start games) are not the long-term solution at the position.

Brissett was the QB5 in overall scoring after taking over as the starter in Week 6 last year, but a perfect storm of injuries and off-the-rails scripts made him a volume-based producer and covered up the fact that he was QB17 in points per dropback.

If Arizona is as bad of a real team again when it opens 2026, Carson Beck will find the field sooner rather than later.

Arizona got hammered by scheduling this season.

Arizona opens the season against the Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, Giants, Lions, Rams, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Rams, Chiefs, Commanders, and Eagles before their Week 14 bye.

Not only are they front-loaded, but, to compound matters, the Cardinals play only four home games through the opening 11 weeks, and they are against the Seahawks, Lions, Broncos, and Rams.

Kirk Cousins & Fernando Mendoza

Bye: Week 13

Fantasy Playoffs: DEN, TEN, @ ARI

Early indications from the Raiders' draft are that they would prefer Kirk Cousins to open the season as the starter, but we will follow this camp battle throughout the summer.

Cousins will have to play better than he has over the past two seasons to help the Raiders win games and keep Mendoza off the field if that happens.

The Raiders open the year with a winnable game against the Dolphins, but then they also have the Chargers, Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, and Rams on the schedule through Week 7.

If we do see Mendoza at that break, the Raiders also have the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos before their Week 13 bye.

Mendoza is a player, I believe, who is coachable, and I have plenty of support for Klint Kubiak, but there are not many spots where it is appealing for him as more than a matchup-based option in 2026 until the tail end of the year.

The nitpick with Mendoza entering the NFL is how he will perform in a more challenging environment and how he will adapt his game to the current NFL.

There will be some who ask about how his offensive environment at the college level was perfectly in tune with his strengths.

Mendoza had the lowest drop rate in this class (2.2%).

Mendoza benefited from a heavy RPO offense predicated on a high rate of throws outside the numbers and into traffic.

23.4% of his dropbacks and 25.4% of his pass attempts last season were on RPO calls, by far the highest rates of this class.

Mendoza only threw 55.2% of his passes over the middle of the field (12th in this class).

If you look at the current state of the NFL, we have seen a spike in more condensed formations and a continued spike in playing under center, turning your back to the defense, and using traditional play action.

In the past two seasons with the Seahawks and Saints, Kubiak’s passers have had under-center rates of 54.8% (2nd in the league) and 42.5% (5th).

Over his three collegiate seasons, Mendoza has had only six dropbacks under center.

Tua Tagovailoa & Michael Penix

Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Playoffs: @ WAS, TB, NO

Penix suffered a torn ACL in his left knee in Week 11.

Having his surgery on November 25, he will be right at nine months into his recovery at the start of the season.

If there is a minor positive to take away from his injury, it is that the torn ACL is in his other knee and not the one that has already required two surgeries.

With Penix’s timeline running up against the start of the season, a new system with Kevin Stefanski coming in and potentially missing a lot of practice time, the Falcons added Tagovailoa this summer.

He could be a potential bridge to Penix’s return or even the outright starter should he play well enough, assuming he is the frontrunner to open the year under center.

With Miami eating Tua’s contract, Atlanta was able to sign Tagovailoa to a veteran-minimum deal ($1.2 million).

While Penix was on the field, he was a mixed bag in his second year.

He completed 60.1% of his passes (30th), averaged 7.2 yards per pass attempt (15th), posted a 3.3% touchdown rate (30th), and posted a league-low 1.1% interception rate.

Given his release at a massive cap hit, Tagovailoa inherently ended his Miami career on a down note.

He threw for 6.9 yards per pass attempt (22nd), a 3.9% interception rate (32nd), and a 7.2% sack rate (23rd).

On the positive end, he did have a 5.2% touchdown rate (11th) and completed 67.7% of his passes (8th).

Interestingly, aside from both being left-handed, these are polar opposites as passers.

Penix has preferred to push the ball downfield and outside the numbers, while Tagovailoa has gotten the ball out quickly and near the line of scrimmage.

Over the past two years, Penix has averaged 8.9 air yards per pass attempt (2nd in the league) and has thrown the ball a league-high 49.4% of the time outside the numbers.

Over that span, Tagovailoa has averaged a league-low 6.2 air yards per pass attempt while throwing the ball 38.8% of the time outside of the numbers (26th).

When they have pushed the ball downfield, the results have not been there.

Over the past two seasons, with throws of 20 or more yards downfield, Tua has completed 32.8% of his throws (34th), while Penix has completed 29.6% (41st).

Tagovailoa’s ability to play on time could be a positive for Stefanski’s scheme, but his shortcomings when holding the football have led to more mistakes.

I would bet on both quarterbacks starting in 2026, with the Falcons reassessing the position after this year's results.

Deshaun Watson & Shedeur Sanders

Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Playoffs: @ NYG, @ BAL, IND

Cleveland quarterbacks combined for the NFL's worst passer rating last season (71.8).

Their passers completed a league-low 58.2% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt (31st), a 3.2% touchdown rate (30th), a league-high 3.5% interception rate, and took a sack on 8.1% of their dropbacks (25th).

Sanders made seven starts (3-4).

Among 45 quarterbacks with 100-plus dropbacks last season, Sanders ranked 44th in rating (68.1).

Sanders was at 6.6 Y/A (32nd).

He struggled to avoid the negative plays that plagued him in college.

He had a 4.7% interception rate (43rd) with a 9.8% sack rate (39th).

Pro Football Focus credited Sanders with causing 29.1% of his own pressures, which was the second-highest rate in the league.

Watson missed all of 2025 with an Achilles injury.

Cleveland is finally in the final season of Watson’s contract, which has been revamped a handful of times to expedite his departure.

The last time we saw Watson play in 2024, he completed 63.4% of his passes (29th) for 5.3 yards per pass attempt (44th), a 2.3% touchdown rate (42nd), and a league-high 13.3% sack rate.

Tier 9 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Carson Beck
• Cade Klubnik
• J.J. McCarthy
• Gardner Minshew
• Taylen Green

Wrapping things up with wild-card options.

These players should have the best odds to make an appearance as a starter without injury this year, given a potential negative outcome for the team and the current projected starter.

All of these quarterbacks are late-round flyers in 2QB formats.