Patriots vs. Texans Fantasy Football Worksheet, Divisional Round

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Divisional Round matchup between the Patriots and Texans.

Find a breakdown of every Divisional Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Game Overview

The Patriots and Texans were the two favorites who won and covered in the Wild Card Round.

The Patriots have won 14 of their past 15 games, while Houston is riding the league's longest winning streak at 10 games.

Both teams are coming off dominant defensive performances.

Houston has had one of the best defenses in the NFL, leading the league in success rate (63.9%) and allowing the fewest points per drive (1.46).

Houston has allowed points on 27% of opponent possessions, the lowest rate in the league.

The Texans pulled ahead late on Monday with 2 defensive touchdowns.

Houston has forced a takeaway on 14.8% of opponent possessions (4th) and has scored 103 points off turnovers (4th).

New England does not get a lot of love, but they invested heavily in their defense this offseason, and the results have shown.

The Patriots have allowed 1.72 points per drive (5th) and have allowed opponents to score on 31.1% of their possessions (3rd).

New England won a game that wasn't all about their offense or Drake Maye.

The Patriots take a lot of flak for their schedule, but they did post 381 yards against the Chargers on Sunday.

That was the third-most yards the Chargers allowed all season, and the most they surrendered in a game since Week 7.

Houston’s defense is another rung higher than the one they faced a week ago.

Offensively, there is a greater divide, and this matchup between the New England and Houston defense becomes the most compelling component of the game.

The Patriots are fourth in offensive success rate (45.9%) while Houston is 28th (39.1%).

The Patriots have reached third down on 41.6% of their downs (3rd lowest), compared to Houston's 49.7% (26th).

New England leads the NFL with 22.3% of its plays gaining 10 or more yards and a league-high 8.1% gaining 20 or more yards.

The Houston defense has allowed a gain of 10 or more yards on 17.3% of opponent plays (6th), but has allowed a gain of 20 or more yards on 5.5% of opponent plays (14th).

Both offenses are below the fold in the red zone, which could be the deciding factor if this game is low-scoring and tight, as both of their games last week were.

The Patriots are 21st in red zone touchdown rate (54.5%) while Houston is 29th (47.4%).

Quarterback

Drake Maye: In his first career playoff game, Maye completed 17 of 29 passes (58.6%) for 268 yards (9.2 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.

He added 66 yards rushing and also lost a fumble.

Maye faced his most formidable pass defense of the season on Sunday.

We did see an impact as Maye’s 42.2% success rate was his third-lowest of the season and his lowest since Week 10.

The Patriots ran their lowest rate of play action (10.3%) on Sunday night, while Maye also had his highest dropback rate from the pocket (82.1%) in a game this season.

That said, Maye did throw 268 yards, which was the second-most passing yards the Chargers have allowed this season.

The Patriots also had a 10.3% drop rate, their highest in a game this season.

Even with resistance, Maye found his way to enough plays to make a difference.

He and this passing game will be rechallenged this weekend.

Houston has allowed a 58.9% completion rate (3rd), 6.4 yards per pass attempt (4th), and a 3.5% touchdown rate (6th).

The Texans have allowed more than 2 touchdown passes in one game this season.

Their resume is solid as well, facing Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence (x2), Sam Darnold, Patrick Mahomes, Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, and Baker Mayfield.

Not everyone there is squeaky clean, but that is a good resume for the 2025 NFL season.

The most passing yards they allowed before pulling Week 18 starters was 253 yards to Allen.

If Maye has had one consistent bugaboo this season, it has been holding the football.

Maye averages 2.91 seconds after the snap per throw (28th).

He has thrown the ball within 2.5 seconds of the snap on 34.7% of his dropbacks, 31st in the league.

Maye can create with his legs.

He has 489 scrambling yards, which is tied for the most in the NFL.

Houston has allowed 19.0 scrambling yards per game (25th).

That has also led to some negative plays.

When pressured, Maye has a 25% sack rate, which is 27th in the league.

That is the highest rate of any quarterback in the postseason.

He took 5 sacks on Sunday night.

Maye has a 14.3% sack rate when holding the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, which ranks 27th in the league.

The Texans are fourth in pressure rate (41.7%) and seventh in sack rate (8.2%).

Holding the football against Houston has not led to good results.

When opponents have held the ball longer than 2.5 seconds from the snap against Houston, they have allowed a 46.7% completion rate (2nd), 6.7 yards per pass attempt (3rd), and have a 15% sack rate (4th).

For whatever it is worth, Maye’s first career start did come against this Houston defense last season with a far inferior offense than this version.

In that game, Maye completed 20 of 33 passes (60.6%) for 243 yards (7.4 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, rushing 5 times for 38 yards.

He also lost a fumble but managed to find his way to 19.5 fantasy points.

C.J. Stroud: Stroud was not at his best on Monday night in Pittsburgh.

He completed 21 of 32 passes (65.6%) for 250 yards (7.8 Y/A) with a touchdown, but he threw an interception in the red zone while fumbling 5 times (losing 2).

That was uncharacteristic.

Stroud had 2 fumbles during the regular season, and that was his 1st interception in the red zone all year.

We have talked about this all season, but all of Stroud’s spike weeks for fantasy purposes came in clear spots.

He had three 20-point games, coming against an injury-ravaged Baltimore team in Week 5, San Francisco, and Arizona.

He cleared 15 points in two other games, coming against the Titans and the Colts in the regular-season finale.

Houston is not expected to have Nico Collins for Sunday due to his second concussion this season.

For his career, Stroud has seen a drop across the board without Collins, posting a 61.4% completion rate (65.4% with him on the field), 7.4 yards per attempt (7.6), 3.2% touchdown rate (4.7%), and a 1.9% interception rate (1.6%).

After Collins left the game on Monday, Stroud did go 6 of 8 for 145 yards (18.1 Y/A), but he did throw that interception.

To potentially balance the scales, the Patriots may not have Christian Gonzalez, who is also in concussion protocol.

With Gonzalez off the field this season, the Patriots have allowed a 69.4% completion rate (31st), 7.7 yards per pass attempt (28th), and a 4.9% touchdown rate (19th).

With Gonzalez available, the Patriots have allowed a 65% completion rate, 6.2 Y/A, and a 4.3% touchdown rate.

The Patriots may not have faced the league’s best schedule this season, but where does this version of the Houston passing offense fall on that spectrum?

Although I do not believe the New England defense is bad, given their roster, the Patriots were not overly challenged by opposing quarterback play this season.

Over their past 14 games, the only Week 1 starters that New England has faced for a full game have been Josh Allen (x2), Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Michael Penix, Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields, Jaxson Dart, and Justin Herbert.

Running Back

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