Tua Tagovailoa‘s final season with the Miami Dolphins was the worst of his four with Mike McDaniel.
It wasn't close:
- 2022: +0.18 EPA/attempt, 49% success rate
- 2023: +0.16 EPA/attempt, 49% success rate
- 2024: +0.18 EPA/attempt, 51% success rate
- 2025: -0.01 EPA/attempt, 53% success rate
Since Tagovailoa has been in and out of the lineup due to injuries for several seasons, it's helpful to break his counting stats down on a per-game basis:
- 2022: 273 yards, 1.9 TDs, 0.62 INTs
- 2023: 272 yards, 1.7 TDs, 0.82 INTs
- 2024: 260 yards, 1.7 TDs, 0.64 INTs
- 2025: 190 yards, 1.4 TDs, 1.07 INTs
While the dropoff in 2025 was alarming, Tua's success the prior three years was the exact opposite and went massively under the radar.
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Tua Tagovailoa Was Better Than You Think
Did you know Tagovailoa ranked?
#4 in EPA and #3 in success rate in 2024
#2 in EPA and #2 in success rate in 2023
#2 in EPA and #5 in success rate in 2022
Did you know Tagovailoa was the ONLY QB IN THE NFL who ranked top five in BOTH expected points added and success rate each season from 2022 through 2024?
The only one!
If you sum up the three years from 2022 through 2024, Tagovailoa’s rankings among 64 qualifying quarterbacks were:
#2 in Y/A (8.1)
#2 in completion rate (68%)
#3 in EPA/attempt (+0.17)
#3 in success rate (49%)
#4 in passer rating (102.5)
#2 in first down rate (38%)
#3 in third down conversion rate (42%)
#2 in explosive pass rate for 15+ yard gains (20%)
While this stretch was undoubtedly tremendous, the question is how much of that success can be attributed to McDaniel's offense?
Regardless of where you sit on that debate, it was undeniable how quickly Tagovailoa got rid of the football in McDaniel's scheme, and that was in large part due to how terrible the offensive line was at pass protection.
Tagovailoa Got Rid of the Football Quickly
From 2022 through 2024, Tagovailoa had to use the #1 fastest time to throw of all 64 QBs.
Meanwhile, Miami's offensive line ranked bottom 10 in pass block win rate in three of the last four years, and their offensive line had the #2 highest rate of holding penalties and the #1 fastest time to sack.
Why couldn't that same recipe be replicated in 2025?
Why did Tua's production fall off so substantially?
It was a multitude of factors, but that discussion must begin with the timing-based offense that McDaniel built.
In 2023 and 2024, Tua threw just over 40% of his passes within 2 seconds.
If that sounds lightning quick, that’s because it was.
It was the fastest in the NFL.
But in 2025, he threw less than 30% of his passes within 2 seconds.
What Went Wrong in 2025?
In 2025, 25% of his passes were thrown over 3 seconds after the snap, something he did not do on even 20% of his passes the prior two seasons.
His average time to throw increased considerably in 2025:
- 2023: 2.3 seconds
- 2024: 2.3 seconds
- 2025: 2.6 seconds
Still fast, but much closer to the NFL average of 2.77 seconds than the prior few years.
And when he held onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds, his passes were a disaster in 2025:
- -0.18 EPA/attempt (#29)
- 34% success rate (#27)
- 6.5 Y/A (#35)
- 56% completion rate (#21)
All of these marks were significantly worse than in prior years.
But Tagovailoa also struggled when throwing fast in 2025.
While his completion rate and yard per attempt average were both still in the top 10.
The issue was interceptions.
He threw 7 on quick passes, resulting in the #4 highest interception rate in the NFL.
With a +0.11 EPA/attempt (#19) and 49% success rate (#18) on passes with 2.5 seconds in 2025, the quick passing engine that drove the Dolphins offense in the first few years of McDaniel’s time with Tagovailoa ran out of steam.
And without that dependable, near automatic production, Tagovailoa was lost as he struggled to play out of structure and without regular timing.
Was McDaniel's Scheme Hiding Tagovailoa's Weaknesses All Along?
Which leaves us with questions as the Dolphins part ways with their quarterback.
Over the last two years, on passes where he holds the ball longer than 2.5 seconds (keep in mind the NFL average is 2.77 seconds), Tagovailoa's performance:
- -0.15 EPA/attempt (#33)
- 34.5% success rate (#34)
- 6.7 Y/A (#42)
- 58% completion rate (#18)
- 3.8% interception rate (#37)
Could some of this poor production be the result of the concussions Tagovailoa sustained?
His desire to get the ball out quicker, and when it's not there, entering fight-or-flight mode and panicking?
Or could it be that he became so comfortable in McDaniel's quick-timing scheme that he was less comfortable operating outside of it?
Tagovailoa and McDaniel were solid when working together for many years.
Unfortunately for Miami, despite that solid production, they didn't produce enough on-field success.
Tagovailoa might land in a spot with a better pass blocking offensive line, so he could have a better support system up front.
But he won't have the timing-based passing offense of McDaniel.
It was an offense, during Tagovailoa's time, that used the #1 highest rate of pre-snap motion, the #3 highest rate of play action, and the #1 fastest time to throw.
It's extremely unlikely any landing spot would provide anything close to delivering a system like that.
Which means a quarterback who has struggled more the last couple of years when holding the ball will inevitably find himself in an offense that requires him to hold the ball longer than he did in Miami.
As Miami looks to start over and is willing to eat an NFL-record $99.2 million in dead cap to do so, other teams interested in Tagovailoa must try to answer these very same questions.
