2026 NFL Draft Steals & Reaches: Most Valuable Draft Classes

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Rather than grading draft classes, an exercise I enjoy doing and believe has some merit, I like evaluating draft classes based on a “wisdom of crowds” approach.

The methodology I use incorporates consensus mock drafts from Ben Robinson and consensus big boards assembled by Arif Hasan.

I lean more on consensus mock drafts to peg the first round and the big boards thereafter.

Assigning draft capital to each pick using those sources, we can compare the total draft capital used to draft a player at a particular point in the draft relative to what was expected.

The resulting metric is called DCOE, standing for Draft Capital Over Expectation, and measures expected capital used on a prospect vs. the actual capital used.

Based on this methodology, we can determine which teams reached the most to draft a player and which teams were able to get great value on players drafted later than expected.

These aren’t draft grades.

There is no personal bias involved.

But to answer a few questions about the methodology:

• Looking at big boards tends to predict the draft quite well.
• While we don’t know how these prospects ultimately will transition to the NFL, nor how strong their careers will be, that is not the point of this exercise.
• The goal is to examine the teams that overdrafted or underdrafted.

Most Valuable 2026 NFL Draft Classes:

*Note: Lower draft capital over expected is better.

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Which NFL Team Had the Most Valuable 2026 NFL Draft?

The Washington Commanders had the most draft capital over expected in the 2026 NFL Draft.

NFL Teams With the Most Valuable 2026 NFL Drafts:

1. Washington Commanders
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. New York Jets

Which NFL Team Had the Least Valuable 2026 NFL Draft?

The San Francisco 49ers had the least draft capital over expected in the 2026 NFL Draft.

NFL Teams With the Least Valuable 2026 NFL Drafts:

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Arizona Cardinals

2026 NFL Draft Value: Team by Team Breakdown

Washington Commanders

The Commanders were below average in this metric in the 2023 draft and again in 2024, consistently reaching for players.

But last year, Washington finished #11.

This year, they finished No. 1 in the NFL in terms of draft capital over expected.

Washington didn’t have much capital, but it grabbed value early and often.

It started in Round 1, when Sonny Styles slipped from an expected top-five pick to the Commanders at No. 7.

With Friday’s only pick, the Commanders drafted WR Antonio Williams in Round 3 at No. 71 when he was expected to go at No. 66.

But their Saturday picks flashed even more value.

In Round 5, they took EDGE Joshua Josephs at No. 146 when he was expected to go No. 77.

In Round 6, they drafted RB Kaytron Allen at No. 186 when he was expected to go No. 130.

Later that round, they grabbed C Matt Gulbin from Michigan State at No. 208 when he was expected to go No. 168.

This was an exercise in maximizing draft capital and making more out of less by drafting players the vast majority of evaluators expected to go earlier in the draft.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers took value in Round 1, letting OT Monroe Freeling fall to them at pick No. 19.

From that point on, they targeted value all over the board.

This was highlighted in the mid rounds of the draft.

They took C Sam Hecht at No. 143 when he was expected to go closer to No. 80.

Just a few picks later, they grabbed S Zakee Wheatley, who was expected to be a top-100 selection.

There wasn’t a single pick the Panthers made earlier than expected.

They did not over-value team needs or over-prioritize their own individual rankings of these players over the consensus ranking.

Indianapolis Colts

Without a first-round draft pick, the Colts made smart, calculated moves over the rest of the draft to produce solid DCOE:

• LB CJ Allen – expected at 35, taken at 53
• S A.J. Haulcy – expected at 56, taken at 78
• OG Jalen Farmer – expected at 106, taken at 113
• EDGE Caden Curry – expected at 161, taken at 213
• RB Seth McGowan – expected at 182, taken at 236

There were a couple of reaches (LB Bryce Boettcher, EDGE George Gumbs Jr.), but it was a sound draft by DCOE standards and the best one for the Colts in several years (#28 in DCOE in 2024, #17 in 2025).

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals didn’t have a first-round draft pick, but they made their mid and late-round picks count.

They received tremendous value with their Round 6 and Round 7 picks.

Cincinnati took two centers in the 2026 draft, both later than expected.

In addition, they added a tight end much later than expected:

• C Connor Lew – expected at 76, taken at 128
• C Brian Parker II – expected at 111, taken at 188
• TE Jack Endries – expected at 128, taken at 220

There were a few reaches earlier in the draft (WR Colbie Young, CB Tacario Davis), but the vast majority of the Bengals selections gave them solid DCOE.

And as a result, the Bengals ranked above average in DCOE for the first time since 2023.

New York Giants

In Year 1 under the new John Harbaugh regime, the Giants crushed the draft.

They didn’t select a single player before expected until pick No 185, when they selected DL Bobby Jamison-Travis in Round 6.

Before that, every one of their picks was drafted later than expected:

• EDGE Arvell Reese – expected at 3, taken at 5
• OT Francis Mauigoa – expected at 8, taken at 10
• CB Colton Hood – expected at 32, taken at 37
• WR Malachi Fields – expected at 73, taken at 74
• OT J.C. Davis – expected at 154, taken at 191
• LB Jack Kelly – expected at 189, taken at 192

Overall, it was similar to what the Harbaugh-led Ravens have done in prior years, taking value where they could.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs ranked #7 in this metric in 2025, and are back in the top 10 with another solid draft in 2026.

It started Round 1 when they snagged one of the biggest drops of the round.

Rueben Bain Jr. surprisingly fell to them at No. 15.

Very few mock drafts expected Bain to still be available when the Bucs were picking, and now he can stay in the state of Florida, pair up with Vita Vea, and get after several of the highly questionable quarterbacks in the NFC South.

The Bucs did reach small in Round 2 for LB Josiah Trotter and in Round 5 for DL DeMonte Capehart, but they got outstanding value with CB Keionte Scott in Round 4 (expected to go No. 55) and G Billy Schrauth in Round 5 (expected to go No. 125).

Through Round 3 (Thursday and Friday), the Bucs were one of 10 teams with more surplus draft capital over expected, and that continued on Saturday.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders entered the 2026 draft with significant capital, and they needed to make it pay off as they try to turn the trajectory of their franchise around.

Fernando Mendoza was expected to go No. 1 overall, so there were no capital savings there.

The Raiders technically reached on several players on Day 2, drafting CB Treydan Stukes, EDGE Keyron Crawford, and C Trey Zuhn III earlier than expected.

In fact, the Raiders ranked #21 in DCOE through Day 2 (Friday).

But they made a massive comeback on Saturday.

Las Vegas started the day by trading up to the first pick of the day and selecting CB Jermod McCoy, who fell all the way to Round 4.

McCoy, if healthy, would have been a top 10 or 15 pick in the draft.

Due to his injuries, he fell massively.

The Raiders also got value in taking RB Mike Washington Jr. at No 122 overall when he was expected to go No. 74.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo got off to an inauspicious start in the 2026 draft, trading back and then reaching for CB Davison Igbinosun (expected to go No. 81 but drafted No. 62) after they drafted EDGE T.J. Parker at No. 35.

The fourth round was a mixed bag.

The Bills got tremendous value by drafting WR Skyler Bell at No. 125 when he was expected at No. 84, but they reached on both OT Jude Bowry and LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr.

But they made up for it in the even later rounds by drafting S Jalon Kilgore at No. 166 when he was expected at No. 91.

Kilgore being drafted 75 spots later than expected was the #3 largest difference in the top five rounds of the draft, and his DCOE of -4.4 was the #10 largest steal of the first five rounds.

Buffalo also got DL Zane Durant at No. 180 when he was expected at No. 140.

The Bills remained VERY defense-heavy in their draft, selecting defenders with five of seven picks in the first six rounds of the draft.

No team has spent less draft capital on offensive players since 2020 than the Bills.

But in terms of the value of players selected, they delivered in 2026.

Arizona Cardinals

Drafting Jeremiyah Love No. 3 overall was hotly debated as it related to positional value.

Taking a running back at No. 3 means you’re guaranteeing $54 million in salary, nearly $20 million more than any rookie running back in NFL history and more than any other running back in the league.

That means Love needs to be one of the best running backs in the league right out of the gate.

That said, the Cardinals didn’t get dinged for that move in draft capital over expectation because of how highly Love is rated.

They fell down these rankings because of their other moves.

• QB Carson Beck – expected at 114, taken at 65
• DL Kaleb Proctor – expected at 123, taken at 104
• WR Reggie Virgil – expected at 178, taken at 143
• LB Karson Sharar – expected to be undrafted, taken at 183
• OT Jayden Williams – expected to be undrafted, taken at 217

As the above graphic shows, Arizona reached for virtually every player in the draft, with the only true “value” pick being G Chase Bisontis.

They took him two picks later (34) than expected (32).

Jacksonville Jaguars

When a new general manager takes over and goes completely off the board, it could either be very good (and very interesting) or very bad.

Jaguars GM James Gladstone started his tenure by trading the No. 5 pick, a second, a third, and a 2026 first-round pick to move up for Travis Hunter last year.

He said the team viewed Hunter as a franchise-changing player who would “alter the trajectory of the sport” by playing wide receiver and cornerback.

But the reports this offseason are that Hunter will be a full-time CB and only play WR situationally.

Then, in the 2026 NFL draft, Gladstone went off the board with many of the picks that remained, including:

• TE Nate Boerkircher – expected at 163, taken at 56
• DL Albert Regis – expected at 150, taken at 81
• S Jalen Huskey – expected at 187, taken at 100
• EDGE Wesley Williams – expected at 236, taken at 119
• WR C.J. Williams – expected to be undrafted, taken at 203
• ED Zach Durfee – expected to be undrafted, taken at 233
• LB Parker Hughes – expected to be undrafted, taken at 240

The result was the #4 worst DCOE score of the 2026 NFL Draft.

Los Angeles Rams

At one point, “F them picks” was a meme for the Rams, who traded away picks for players and went without a first-round pick from 2017 to 2023.

That narrative had shifted.

In 2023, the Rams drafted 14 players, #1 most of any team in the NFL, and they had better than average draft capital over expectation (#13).

In 2024, the Rams drafted 11 players, #1 most of any team in the NFL, and once again ranked above average (#10) in DCOE.

But things began to unravel in 2025, when the Rams ranked #20 in DCOE with only six draft picks.

Things cratered in the 2026 draft.

Through Round 5, the Rams had just three picks…and they reached badly on all three.

• QB Ty Simpson – expected at 38, taken at 13
• TE Max Klare – expected at 71, taken at 61
• OG Keagen Trost – expected at 164, taken at 93

If you’re going to reach for a player, quarterback is the position to target.

It’s hard to fault them for being aggressive if they truly think Simpson is the future.

But the process was odd.

Could they have traded back and still landed him?

Most likely.

Is he going to help the Rams win a Super Bowl in 2026?

No.

The Rams made the NFC Championship game last year and were five points away from a trip to the Super Bowl.

They then reached on every player they selected in the first six rounds, and that includes WR CJ Daniels (Miami) at No. 196, as he was expected at No. 202.

San Francisco 49ers

I normally would not do this, but I’ve got to vent.

I don’t know what John Lynch is doing.

#32 in Draft Capital Over Expectation in 2026.

This isn’t just a 2026 thing.

This has been going on for a WHILE.

I’ve been tracking draft capital over expected for several years now.

The 49ers' rank, by year:

2023: #31
2024: #28
2025: #31
2026: #32

The 49ers are the WORST in the NFL at drafting.

I can only imagine what Kyle Shanahan could do with a proper GM drafting these players.

And I say that while realizing he is surely involved in these mid-round running backs that never seem to work out.

49ers mid-round RBs drafted since 2017:

2017: Joe Williams, Round 4
2021: Trey Sermon, Round 3
2022: Tyrion Davis-Price, Round 3
2024: Isaac Guerendo, Round 4|
2025: Jordan James, Round 5
2026: Kaelon Black, Round 3

The only way a team drafts like this is if they are so arrogant and oblivious that they don’t care about the sentiment of all the 31 other NFL teams.

They will just draft off their board and expect it to work out.

Thankfully, the 49ers were able to get lucky with Brock Purdy (Mr. Irrelevant), land Christian McCaffrey, and get a disgruntled Trent Williams who wanted to leave Dan Snyder.

This team has gotten no better in the NFL Draft, and it’s CLEAR why with what they did in 2026.

Just look at some of these selections:

• WR De'Zhaun Stribling – expected at 99, taken at 33
• EDGE Romello Height – expected at 78, taken at 70
• RB Kaelon Black – expected at 214, taken at 90
• OG Carver Willis – expected at 232, taken at 127
• LB Jaden Dugger – expected at 284, taken at 154
• OT Enrique Cruz Jr. – expected at 280, taken at 179

I know a lot of evaluators liked Stribling, but not at No. 33 overall.

As it relates to Stribling:

It’s hard to reconcile the thought process as to why the 49ers are so confident in drafting in opposition to the consensus, but they seemingly ignore it and do their own thing.

The fact that they win games doesn’t mean they’re doing it right.

We don’t know what this team could be if they drafted better.

We only know what they are when they reach more than any other team over the last four years combined.

2026 Most Valuable Draft Classes Infographic

Best and Worst Value of the 2026 NFL Draft Infographic: Day 1 & 2

Best and Worst Value of the 2026 NFL Draft Infographic: Round 4 & 5

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