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NFL Draft props offer some of the sharpest edges on the board each spring if you know where to look.
Draft props are set by oddsmakers working with incomplete intel, and public perception can be way off during draft season.
That creates exploitable gaps for bettors willing to dig into historical draft tendencies.
Last year's version of this article hit on five of seven picks, with all but one of those at plus money.
I will look to add more picks as we get closer to the draft, but there are already some strong plays on the board.
Explore more NFL Draft content:
2026 NFL Draft Best Bet: Cashius Howell to be Drafted at No. 33 (+2000)
We're trusting a well-sourced 49ers beat reporter on this one.
The Athletic's Matt Barrows has been consistently linking the team to Texas A&M's Cashius Howell, calling him their most likely pick as recently as Thursday afternoon.
I did not include that in my mock draft on Thursday because it felt far fetched that he would rise into the first round.
But now that San Francisco has traded out of the first round and clearly needs pass-rush depth, it's starting to make sense.
Denzel Boston is another common pick popping up in Day 2 mocks, but his lack of yards-after-catch production isn't an ideal fit for Kyle Shanahan‘s scheme.
The Niners also passed over Boston twice on Thursday night, despite him widely being mocked in the first round.
If Boston were a target, they likely would have snagged him already because his slide into Day 2 was not anticipated.
Howell's availability, however, was very much expected which might explain San Francisco's attempts to get out of Day 1.
2026 NFL Draft Best Bet: Diego Pavia to be Drafted Over Pick 200.5 (-200)
This prop is available only because Diego Pavia was a Heisman finalist and a big name during the college football season.
The 5-foot-10 quarterback is unlikely to hear his name called this weekend, especially not before the seventh round (pick 200 is mid-sixth round).
Pavia has significant physical limitations (height, arm strength) to go along with a personality that many find arrogant and grating.
His bravado played well at Vanderbilt — a perennial college football doormat that desperately needed an edge — but it's a wildcard factor that many teams won't want to invite into the locker room in the form of a third-string quarterback.
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2026 NFL Draft Best Bet: David Bailey to be the Second Overall Pick (+165)
The Jets have to get this selection correct, which likely means taking the safer option of two elite EDGE prospects.
While Arvell Reese has tantalizing traits, he was a one-year starter at Ohio State and will be asked to switch positions in the pros.
Conversely, David Bailey was a dominant force on the edge at Texas Tech last year.
That was also the case the year before when he was surrounded by zero talent at Stanford.
Mel Kiper Jr. has the Jets taking Bailey, writing, “I get the sense the Jets will take production over potential here in the great Bailey vs. Arvell Reese debate.”
Kiper's former colleague Todd McShay agrees, writing, “It’s close to a foregone conclusion in NFL circles.”
2026 NFL Draft Best Bet: Steelers to Draft an Offensive Lineman First (+180)
The Steelers are expected to decline Broderick Jones’ fifth-year option, according to longtime beat writer Mark Kaboly, and Jones reportedly suffered a setback with his neck injury this offseason.
Left guard Spencer Anderson is also in the final year of his contract and is not necessarily locked into a starting job.
Last year’s first-round pick Troy Fautanu has the ability to move from right tackle to the left side, giving the team flexibility in the players it targets to upgrade the offensive line.
Vega Ioane would be an ideal fit to replace Anderson.
Spencer Fano, Monroe Freeling, Blake Miller, and Kadyn Proctor are all viable options at tackle.
It's likely someone from that group of five offensive line prospects is on the board at number 21, making this group clear front runners for the Steelers' selection.
2026 NFL Draft Best Bet: Under 11.5 Big Ten Players in First Round (-165)
There are nine Big Ten prospects we should consider first-round locks:
- Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
- Arvell Reese, Ohio State
- Sonny Styles, Ohio State
- Carnell Tate, Ohio State
- Caleb Downs, Ohio State
- Makai Lemon, USC
- Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon
- Dillon Thieneman, Oregon
- Vega Ioane, Penn State
Two others are solidly in the mix, but have the potential to fall:
- Denzel Boston, Washington
- Omar Cooper Jr, Indiana
Even if both Boston and Cooper land the first round, that still only brings us to 11 players.
That leaves two players we have to worry about for this bet to hit:
- Kayden McDonald, Ohio State
- Emmanuel Pregnon, Oregon
McDonald appeared in some early mock drafts but is mostly on the outside looking in now.
He's a nose tackle with no pass-rush upside, and those players are not valued the way they used to be around the league.
Pregnon could be the second guard off the board behind Ioane, but Texas A&M's Chase Bisontis and Georgia Tech's Keylan Rutledge are also in that conversation.
There's definitely a chance a second guard sneaks into the first round, but since there's no clear consensus between Bisontis, Pregnon, and Rutledge, there's still limited risk of that selection ruining this bet.
Bob McGinn of GoLongTd.com (longtime Packers beat writer, formerly of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) has an excellent track record of identifying where prospects will be drafted in his NFL draft series, in which he interviews scouts.
McGinn has Pregnon and Cooper listed as second or third-round prospects.
He's been wrong before, but having two Big Ten players clearly graded outside the first round by McGinn's scouting sources is a good reason to trust the under.
2026 NFL Draft Best Bet: Sonny Styles to be Drafted in the Top Five (+110)
The Giants have been a common destination for Sonny Styles in mock drafts at pick No. 5, so this bet has looked strong for a while.
The logic behind this bet was enhanced on Monday, when Todd McShay and Adam Schefter both reported about the Cardinals' interest in Jeremiyah Love.
This is significant because it potentially opens up another landing spot for Styles in the top five with Tennessee.
Titans head coach Robert Saleh likely wants a green-dot linebacker to build around, and Styles could be that guy.
Styles, a former safety, has coverage skills that could be compared to longtime 49ers linebacker Fred Warner, who thrived in Saleh's scheme.
It has also been widely reported that Arizona wants to trade down, which makes No. 3 a potential landing spot for Styles if someone (Dallas?) wants to trade up ahead of the Titans and Giants.
2026 NFL Draft Best Bet: Jacob Rodriguez to be a First-Round Pick (+500)
There are three realistic landing spots (Dallas, Houston, Miami) for Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, which makes this bet a good value at +500.
There's a specific scenario out there that makes Dallas look like an ideal fit based on a few different reports.
On Monday, McShay reported that Dallas is a candidate to trade down from pick No. 20 with one of the teams trying to move up for an offensive tackle.
Tony Pauline of Essentially Sports also reported Dallas wants to trade down, with Rodriguez as one of its targets.
Houston and Miami also need a new leader in the middle of the defense, and Rodriguez is a candidate to wear the green dot at that position.
Miami GM Jon-Eric Sullivan came from Green Bay, where the Packers have invested first-round picks in off-ball linebackers before.
And DeMeco Ryans, a former linebacker himself, is likely to value the position as well.
2026 NFL Draft Best Bet: Caleb Downs to be a Top 10 pick (-240)
These odds equate to a 70% implied probability and the true odds for Caleb Downs to land in the top 10 are probably closer to 95%.
The Giants (who have two opportunities to take him) and the Saints are the strongest candidates to select him.
The Commanders should also be in the mix and, depending on the board falls, Cleveland and Kansas City could potentially justify the pick based on a best-available-player approach.
The Cowboys have also reportedly been trying to trade up and Downs might be one of their targets.
2026 NFL Draft Best Bet: Bills to Draft a Wide Receiver First (+450)
Buffalo has done their homework on a lot of top-tier receivers in this class, including a private workout with Denzel Boston and a 30 visit with KC Concepcion.
Keon Coleman has been mentioned as a trade candidate this weekend, which would create an immediate role for a rookie to step into.
Buffalo is frequently linked to defensive linemen in mock drafts, but the team has invested heavily in that position in recent years.
And while no one other than Greg Rousseau has fully met expectations, the depth is strong enough to justify waiting to address this need.
