Kyler Murray Fantasy Value With Vikings: What It Means for Your Roster

After being released by the Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray is joining the Minnesota Vikings on a one-year deal.

Let's examine the fantasy football implications of this move for Murray's fantasy value as well as how this signing affects Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Minnesota offense.

For full contract details and more of a “real football” look at the biggest moves, see our NFL Free Agency Signing Tracker.

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Kyler Murray Fantasy Value With the Minnesota Vikings

Murray is coming off a 2025 season in which he played only five games due to a foot injury.

Even without the injury, there were indications that Arizona was going to stick with Jacoby Brissett after the Dallas game, before Murray was then put on ice to close the season.

Staying on the field has been an issue for Murray.

He has played just one full season since 2020, missing multiple games due to a shoulder injury, a high ankle sprain, a torn ACL, and a hip pointer before last year’s foot ailment.

Over that time without Murray, Arizona posted a 5-25 record.

Kyler Murray Career Stats

As noted, before Murray was shut down to close the season, there were rumblings of a “soft benching” after Arizona beat Dallas in Week 9.

Murray may have inevitably ended up getting more time in Arizona had he been healthy, but there were reasons for that diagnosis at the time based on his on-field play.

Before his foot injury, Murray was off to the worst start of his career, throwing a career low 6.0 yards per pass attempt with his lowest marks in passing yardage per game.

Not posted above, but he was tracking for a career-high 9% sack rate.

For fantasy purposes, Murray was the QB14 or lower in all five of his games played, posting his fewest fantasy points per game over his career.

Murray was a top-12 scorer in points per game over his first six seasons in the league, but we had lost ceiling weeks for multiple years even before last season.

Over the past four years, Murray has just one top-three scoring week and seven top-six scoring weeks in his 41 games.

In 2024, he was a QB1 scorer in 7 of his 17 games.

Over those 41 games during that run, Murray has five games scoring 25-plus fantasy points.

For some context, Brock Purdy (who does not have the rushing upside as Murray) has 10 of those games over the same span.

Bo Nix has six of those games through two seasons.

Our own Warren Sharp already highlighted the passing limitations Murray has throwing downfield, so we do not go too crazy here about his recent issues as a passer.

The good news, as the article highlights, is that Murray will still get to play indoors in Minnesota.

With 8-9 home games on tap and at least one known road game in Detroit, Murray will not have many outdoor games on the 2026 schedule.

My biggest concern for Murray is the current state of the NFL and some passing tendencies that he shares with players such as Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson, who were productive early in their careers when the NFL was more spread-based and wide open.

Those passers have since struggled as passing games have become more compact, forcing quarterbacks to play more efficiently and to attack the middle of the field.

That has always been a hangup for Murray, given his size.

On throws between the hashes over the past four seasons (when the defensive shift started to take place), Murray ranks 43rd in rating (81.5) out of 50 passers to throw the ball 500-plus times.

Throwing over the middle of the field was a huge problem area for J.J. McCarthy last season, which altered the offense.

The biggest thing we saw go wrong for Murray and the end of his run in Arizona was that when the opposition knew Arizona was in clear passing situations, he and the passing game faced their largest issues.

Staying on schedule is important for any offense, but it was particularly vital for Murray to close out his tenure with the Cardinals.

In third-and-long situations (needing 7 or more yards) over the past four seasons, Murray had a first-down conversion rate of 24.7%.

That ranks 34th out of 38 quarterbacks who qualify for the league’s passer rating over that period.

In the fourth quarter, while trailing over that run, Murray averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt (28th) with a 3.5% touchdown rate (33rd).

Murray needs to be in an environment where the offense is complementary.

While Murray has dipped as a passer in recent seasons, he is still capable of using his legs.

He has rushed for at least 30 yards per game in every season of his career.

Before his injury last season, Murray had a career-high 8.8% scramble rate.

This followed an offseason when he said he was going to run more often on his own.

Murray was averaging 8.5 yards per scramble and 29.0 scramble yards per game, which was third in the league.

It is unlikely that we ever get the double-digit rushing touchdown season that Murray had in 2020 again, but this is someone who can still provide an outlet for fantasy production via his mobility.

The one thing that has dried up for him as a runner is the designed usage.

He had only 11 designed runs through five games last season.

This followed 1.5 designed runs per game in 2024.

In 2023, that number was 2.8 per game, while he had averaged 3.2 designed runs per game for his career entering that year.

While we have largely highlighted the struggles that led to Arizona choosing to move on, landing in Minnesota is a best-case scenario for Murray recouping immediate fantasy value.

Murray will get to play indoors, has an attachment to a talented receiving unit, and will play in a fantasy-friendly offense under Kevin O’Connell.

Minnesota QB Production in Games Started Under Kevin O’Connell

We buried some of the lead here a bit, but J.J. McCarthy did not play well enough in 2025, which is why the Vikings are making this move.

It was McCarthy’s first playing time in the NFL, but he was the first quarterback under O’Connell to complete fewer than 60% of his passes in his starts.

McCarthy was last in the NFL in completion rate for qualifiers last season (57.6%).

His 6.7 yards per pass attempt ranked 25th while he ranked 21st in touchdown rate (4.5%), last in interception rate (4.9%), and 31st in sack rate (10%).

We have seen strong play in this system before, so Murray can get back into the QB1 landscape.

We have seen Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins deliver as QB1 scorers without any rushing production.

Carson Wentz and Nick Mullens having short-term success also provides hope that Murray can rebound in this system.

Even if there are still questions about Murray at this stage of his career (again, using Wilson and Watson as examples of guys who never rebounded and were better passers than Murray), this is a no-brainer move for the Vikings at this cost.

The environment can push Murray back into the QB1 landscape if everything works out.

The early concerns for Murray and O’Connell will be the marriage of his scheme to Murray’s playstyle.

O’Connell has utilized a high rate of under-center passing and play action, things that Murray has not done much.

Minnesota passers have been under center for 46.9% of their snaps under O’Connell, the third-highest rate in the league over the past four seasons.

In 2025, that rate was 44.8% (8th).

Playing under center more often has led to a 29.7% play-action rate under O’Connell, fourth in the NFL.

In 2025, Minnesota had a 27.7% play-action rate (9th).

Kyler has been under center for 14.7% of his career snaps.

Only Jalen Hurts (14.4%) and Jayden Daniels (7.6%) have lower rates since Murray entered the league.

Murray has used play action on 21.5% of his dropbacks, 27th in the league since his rookie season.

When he has been under center and used play action (203 career dropbacks), Murray has been successful, completing 68% of his passes for 8.5 Y/A with a 5.8% touchdown rate.

We just have not seen offenses with him operating in that fashion because you have to turn your back to the defense, and let’s face it, Murray is not a tall quarterback, and the shotgun helps him see the field better.

We saw this happen in terms of philosophy last year in Arizona, with and without Murray.

Over five weeks, Arizona had an under-center play rate of 20.9% with Murray (26th) and a 21.1% play-action rate (28th).

Over the next three games, after transitioning to Brissett, the Cardinals had a 46.3% under-center rate (10th) and a 38.7% play-action rate (2nd).

Then the wheels fell off for the team, and they were thrown into jailbreak scripts to end the season, but there was a stark difference in how the offense could run more under center passing and play action without Murray.

We have covered the reasons there are big-picture concerns here for Murray, but this is a definite jolt to his immediate value.

Even if we price in Murray’s injury history, passing struggles, and a potential short-term investment, which could open the door for McCarthy to start again in-season, this is a spike for Murray climbing into the high-end QB2 range (QB10-QB16) with greater upside.

We talked earlier in the week about how that range is likely where Malik Willis will settle.

Willis has more rushing insulation than Murray, but the Miami team environment is far worse than what Murray will be working with.

Murray has been drafted as the QB24 in early drafts.

Murray is not going to push guys like Dak Prescott or Trevor Lawrence in the back-end QB1 range.

That gives you the ability to take a shot on him hitting as a cheaper option for upside that you can throw back into the pool and move on from if he does end up failing.

While this is an immediate boost for potentially making Murray a “miss small” pick in 2026 even if he fails, this could be a good window to move Murray in most Dynasty formats.

If his passing limitations at the end of his Arizona run remain an issue in this environment, Murray’s long-term outlook as a reliable starter moving forward takes a significant hit in the same capacity that we saw with Wilson, or more recently, Justin Fields.

If you are someone who does not believe in Murray as a long-term passer in the league, you should use this as a selling opportunity.

If you are a real contender with a hole or are platooning options at quarterback, those are the spots to make a move for Murray.

Of course, this is not all about Murray.

How Kyler Murray Impacts Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison 2026 Fantasy Value

We are coming off the worst season of Justin Jefferson’s early career.

The counting stats still were fine for Jefferson, catching 84 passes for 1,048 yards, but he had career lows everywhere across the board.

He only had 2 touchdowns.

His 61.6 yards per game were a massive drop from his previous career-low (87.5 yards per game as a rookie).

After posting over 2.5 yards per route run in every season to open his career, Jefferson was at 1.91 last season.

He ended the season as the WR32 in PPR points per game (11.9).

Jefferson was still the focal point of the offense, commanding 30.1% of the team targets (WR4) and 38.6% of the air yards (WR5), but quarterback play was his undoing.

Justin Jefferson Splits by QB in 2025

If you scoped the first table with the Minnesota quarterbacks under O’Connell, you noticed the high rate of off-target throws from McCarthy.

That shows up here as Jefferson had a career-high 17% of his targets deemed inaccurate.

McCarthy had an 18.5% inaccurate throw rate to wide receivers, ranking 32nd among 33 qualifying passers, behind only Cam Ward (19.5%).

The league rate was 13.2%.

Murray was at 13% last season and is only at 9.8% for his career throwing to wide receivers.

With McCarthy, that rate was 19.7%.

In Jefferson’s 10 games with McCarthy, he was the WR15 in expected points (15.6) but the WR38 in actual points scored (11.0 per game).

Jefferson had one WR1 scoring week with McCarthy last season, in Week 18, which did not help most gamers.

We don’t need to talk about the Max Brosmer experience, but when you look at Jefferson’s time with Carson Wentz, you see a top-flight pass catcher for fantasy.

Jefferson was the WR5 in expected points per game with Wentz (17.1) and the WR10 in points scored (16.3 per game).

In his five games with Wentz, Jefferson did not score a touchdown, but he finished:

• WR29 (5-75-0) vs. CIN
• WR8 (10-126-0) vs. PIT
• WR11 (7-123-0) vs. CLE
• WR27 (5-79-0) vs. PHI
• WR20 (7-74-0) vs. LAC

And that schedule overlapped several good pass defenses from last season.

If all we are asking is for Murray to be a proxy of Wentz for Jefferson, that is an achievable goal in getting him back to WR1 status.

Gamers are still drafting Jefferson as WR6 in early drafts.

Murray is just leaving a situation where he did not help Marvin Harrison Jr. hit the ground running in the NFL, but how much of that was completely on Murray?

The one true alpha receiver that Murray has played with during his prime was DeAndre Hopkins.

Hopkins caught 115 passes for 1,407 yards and 6 touchdowns in his one full season playing with Murray at age 28 in 2020.

In 2021 and 2022, with Murray available, Hopkins still posted 2.01 yards per route run.

Jordan Addison Splits by QB in 2025

If Jefferson could not survive playing with McCarthy and Brosmer, then you already knew what it was going to look like for Jordan Addison.

In his games played with McCarthy, Addison was the WR59 in expected points per game (8.3) and was the WR71 in actual points scored per game (6.3).

Once again, the small sample with Wentz against good competition paints a more promising story.

With Wentz, Addison was the WR15 in expected points per game (14.6) and even out-kicked that as the WR11 in actual points (16.0 per game).

Even at the apex of Murray, he struggled to carry a secondary target such as Christian Kirk, so Addison (who also has a string of off-field transgressions) still has more appeal in best ball than managed formats.

However, if the bar once again is asking Murray to deliver in the same range as where Wentz was a year ago, Addison is an upside play at his current WR46 price tag.