The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Arizona Cardinals could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Arizona Cardinals 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-The Cardinals had remarkably poor injury luck last year, ranking 32nd in offensive player health, 31st in defensive player health, and 32nd in total player health. Kyler Murray played in only five games. Paris Johnson Jr. and Marvin Harrison Jr. each missed five games, injuries ravaged the backfield, and the defense suffered substantial absences throughout the season. Better injury luck would do wonders for the Cardinals in 2026.
-The Cardinals were tied for 26th in EPA per designed rush. Sadly, James Conner suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3 last year, and the team’s No. 2 running back, Trey Benson, played in only four games due to injury. The team’s backfield will get a jolt of life after Arizona spent the No. 3 overall pick on Jeremiyah Love after signing Tyler Allgeier in free agency.
-Arizona bolstered its offensive line by signing guard Isaac Seumalo and tackle Elijah Wilkinson in free agency and drafting guard Chase Bisontis in the second round. They ranked 26th in pressure rate allowed and struggled to pave running lanes last season. Their offensive line would also benefit immensely if Johnson played in more than the 12 games he did in 2025.
Reasons for the Under
-The Cardinals cut Kyler Murray after an injury-shortened 2025 season, and, despite Jacoby Brissett playing a fantasy-friendly brand of football in Murray’s stead, he was just 22nd among qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play last season. Neither the addition of Gardner Minshew in free agency nor the drafting of Carson Beck in the third round of the NFL Draft inspires confidence that the Cardinals will get even average quarterback play in 2026.
-The Cardinals played the NFL’s second-hardest schedule in 2025. That’s the byproduct of playing in an NFC West division that featured the eventual Super Bowl champion Seahawks, who beat the Rams in the NFC Championship Game and edged out the 49ers for the conference’s No. 1 seed with a Week 18 victory. With six games on the docket against those three teams again this year, as well as challenging out-of-division matchups, the Cardinals have the NFL’s most difficult strength of schedule in 2026.
-The Cardinals were 22nd in yards allowed per play (5.6), 27th in yards allowed per game (357.7), 27th in pressure rate, 28th in sack rate, 29th in points allowed per drive (2.59), and 30th in defensive points allowed per game (26.8) last year. The club retained Nick Rallis as its defensive coordinator but pivoted from defensive-minded head coach Jonathan Gannon to offensive-minded head coach Mike LaFleur. Better injury luck could help Arizona on defense, but they have a long climb to even average.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps and stat pages, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and article.
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Warren Sharp's book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies with one goal: to prepare you for the 2026 NFL season with the smartest information delivered in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal reviewing and retention.
- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
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