The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the New England Patriots could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
New England Patriots 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-Put into a more functional system in 2025, Drake Maye flourished in an MVP-caliber season. Maye led all qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play. He was also first in completion percentage (72.0%), first in yards per pass attempt (8.9), fourth in passing yards (4,394), third in passing touchdowns (31), and second in success rate.
-The Patriots were 24th in pressure rate allowed in the regular season. As a result, Maye was 30th in sacks taken (47), 25th in sack rate, and 25th in sack-to-pressure rate. New England’s protection issues were exacerbated in the playoffs. The club has attempted to improve the quality of its offensive line by signing Alijah Vera-Tucker and drafting Caleb Lomu in the first round. They also improved their blocking with the additions of tight end Julian Hill and fullback Reggie Gilliam.
-Mike Vrabel worked his magic with New England’s defense last year. They were 12th in yards allowed per play (5.2), eighth in yards allowed per game (295.2), 12th in pressure rate, seventh in points allowed per drive (1.79), and fourth in points allowed per game (18.0). However, they were just 30th in red-zone efficiency and 32nd in goal-to-go efficiency. There are moving pieces on the defense, but the nucleus remains.
Reasons for the Under
-The Patriots had the softest strength of schedule in 2025. Their opponents had a combined winning percentage of .410. New England amassed an NFL-best 12-1 record (92.3%) against teams that missed the playoffs. They were only 2-2 in games against playoff teams. New England doesn’t have one of the NFL’s hardest schedules in 2026. Nevertheless, the 12th-easiest strength of schedule is a step up in competition from last year’s easiest schedule.
-The injury gods were kinder to the Patriots than to anyone else last season. They were sixth in offensive player health, fifth in defensive player health, and first in total player health.
-Strong-armed, dual-threat quarterbacks and dynamic skill-position players can repeat big plays. However, explosive plays are volatile, and the Patriots were first in the percentage of 20-plus-yard plays (8.1%) and the percentage of 10-plus-yard plays (22.5%) last season. Repeating a first-place ranking in both categories is unlikely, and it will be even more challenging if the offensive line can’t take a step forward in protecting Maye, even with A.J. Brown added to the receiver room.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps and stat pages, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and article.
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Warren Sharp's book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies with one goal: to prepare you for the 2026 NFL season with the smartest information delivered in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal reviewing and retention.
- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
- Coaching strategic advice for teams, play-calling analysis & team tendencies
- Front Office Analysis positional spending, roster construction & cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
- Rookie draft class deep dive into impact for every team
- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis
- Penalty analysis for all 32 NFL teams
