The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Cleveland Browns could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Cleveland Browns 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-The Browns were dead last in yards per play (4.3), offensive success rate, EPA per play, and points per drive (1.29). They were 31st in scoring offense (16.4 points per game), couldn’t generate explosives, ranked 29th in third-down conversion rate, and 30th in fourth-down conversion rate. Todd Monken will provide the offense with new leadership, and the team added two wideouts in the top-40 picks of the NFL Draft, selecting KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston to add life to the receiving corps. They also overhauled a subpar offensive line, including making Spencer Fano the first offensive lineman off the board in the NFL Draft. Cleveland merely needs to climb out of the basement to allow their stout defense to win more games in 2026.
-Last year’s 5-12 season resulted in a fourth-place finish in the AFC North. The benefit of their 2025 ineptitude is the fourth-easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this year.
-The Browns were 27th in fumble luck last year, with -3.3 net compared to expectation. Cleveland lost 7 of 14 fumbles, and their opponents lost only 7 of 21 fumbles.
Reasons for the Under
-Among 38 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks last year, Dillon Gabriel was 37th in EPA per play, and Shedeur Sanders was 38th in EPA per play. It can’t possibly get worse this year, right? Deshaun Watson was 40th in EPA per play among 40 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in 2024, and his mark matched Sanders’ 2025 EPA per play. Watson is the projected starter, and the entire quarterback room is a train wreck.
-The Browns had the right idea in overhauling their offensive line after allowing the highest pressured dropback rate last year. Nevertheless, the influx of a rookie left tackle, underachieving first-round pick Zion Johnson, Elgton Jenkins, and Tytus Howard is unlikely to turn Cleveland’s offensive line into a strength. It does not help that Watson and Sanders have a knack for turning pressured dropbacks into costly mistakes.
-Even a soft schedule might not be enough for the Browns to surpass their 2026 win total. Cleveland was only 3-7 and tied for 28th in win percentage last year against non-playoff teams.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
- Coaching strategic advice for teams, play-calling analysis & team tendencies
- Front Office Analysis positional spending, roster construction & cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
- Rookie draft class deep dive into impact for every team
- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis
- Penalty analysis for all 32 NFL teams
