The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Chicago Bears could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Chicago Bears 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-Caleb Williams had a disastrous rookie season, but he drastically improved in a better ecosystem in his sophomore campaign. Among 36 qualified quarterbacks in 2024, Williams was 32nd in EPA per play, 30th in success rate, and 35th in sack rate. Williams surged to 15th in EPA per play, 22nd in success rate, and fourth in sack rate among 33 qualified quarterbacks in 2025.
-Ben Johnson lived up to the expectations of being a bright head coach. The Bears were fourth in EPA on fourth-down decisions. In addition, he leaned into Williams’ strength as a strong-armed passer. The Bears were first in throw rate of 10 or more air yards on first and second downs last year.
-Colston Loveland had an encouraging rookie season and emerged as a potential headline weapon in the passing attack. Loveland exploded for 12 receptions, 193 receiving yards, and 2.57 yards per route run in two playoff games. He saw a target on 33.3% of his routes and ran a route on 76.5% of the dropbacks in the playoffs. He ranked fifth in yards per route run (1.86) among 55 tight ends with at least 150 routes in the regular season, with just a 59.8% route share.
Reasons for the Under
-The Bears had the ninth-easiest strength of schedule in 2025 and took advantage of it. They piled up eight wins against teams that missed the playoffs last year. Chicago played five games against playoff teams, winning three. Winning comes with challenges, including facing the sixth-hardest strength of schedule in 2026.
-Chicago’s defense was first in turnovers forced (33), but it was still 23rd in points allowed per game (24.4) and 20th in points allowed per drive (2.22). They were 29th in yards allowed per play (6.0), 29th in yards allowed per game (361.8), and 29th in pressure rate. The Bears are in trouble on defense if they force fewer turnovers and don’t tighten up their yardage and scoring prevention.
-The Bears ran better than any other team in fumble luck last year. Chicago lost only 4 of their 16 fumbles on offense. Conversely, their opponents fumbled 17 times, and the Bears recovered 7 of those fumbles. Chicago was expected to recover fewer of their own fumbles and fewer of the fumbles from their opponents.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps and stat pages, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and article.
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Warren Sharp's book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies with one goal: to prepare you for the 2026 NFL season with the smartest information delivered in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal reviewing and retention.
- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
- Coaching strategic advice for teams, play-calling analysis & team tendencies
- Front Office Analysis positional spending, roster construction & cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
- Rookie draft class deep dive into impact for every team
- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis
- Penalty analysis for all 32 NFL teams
