The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Carolina Panthers could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Carolina Panthers 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-The Panthers were 31st in pressure rate and 27th in sack rate in 2025. Carolina attempted to address its lack of pass rush by making a splash in free agency, signing Jaelan Phillips to a lucrative deal. Among 184 defenders with at least 200 pass-rush snaps in 2025, Phillips was fifth in pressure rate.
-Carolina’s defense was also 20th in yards allowed per play (5.5), 23rd in points allowed per drive (2.26), and 15th in points allowed per game (22.4). They had more problems than generating a pass rush last year, and Phillips wasn’t their only meaningful addition on defense. The Panthers also signed linebacker Devin Lloyd and added nose tackle Lee Hunter in the second round of the NFL Draft.
-The Panthers finally came to their senses with their wide receiver deployment down the stretch last season. After their Week 14 bye, Jalen Coker ran 155 routes versus 110 for Xavier Legette. Among 93 wide receivers with at least 250 routes in the regular season, Legette was 80th in yards per route run (0.91). Coker was 55th with 1.38 Y/RR. The Panthers also added speedster Chris Brazzell to the wide receiver room in the third round of the NFL Draft, giving them another option behind No. 1 wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan.
Reasons for the Under
-The Panthers backed into the playoffs with a Week 18 loss, finishing with a sub-.500 record at 8-9. Moreover, their expected record was 6.5-10.5 with a -69 point differential. That was the fourth-worst point differential in the NFC and the second-worst mark in the NFC South.
-The Panthers had a midpack strength of schedule in 2025, sitting with the 13th-easiest road. Carolina has the third-hardest strength of schedule in 2026. Even if they improve their underlying metrics this year, they could still lose a few more games in a more challenging gauntlet.
-The jury is still out for Bryce Young. The diminutive signal caller was 31st among 32 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play as a rookie in 2023, 26th among 36 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play in 2024, and 28th among 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play in 2025. Young will need to play much better in 2026 than he has to this point in his career to achieve even average quarterback play.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
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- Front Office Analysis positional spending, roster construction & cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
- Rookie draft class deep dive into impact for every team
- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis
- Penalty analysis for all 32 NFL teams
