2026 NFL Quarterback Prop Bets: Best Unders to Target

2026 NFL Unders: Best Quarterback Prop Bets

• Tyler Shough – Under 3449.5 Passing Yards (+100)
• Fernando Mendoza – Under 2299.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Fantasy football projections, like those done by Rich Hribar, can be a guide to help identify overvalued or undervalued players in the current betting markets.

Using our projections, I will identify a couple of players at each position who we are lower on than the current market.

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Tyler Shough 2026 Over/Under Predictions

Tyler Shough turns 27 before Week 4 of his sophomore season, and the current season-long totals are lined as if Shough is an established NFL starter.

Based on Shough’s age and college profile, there is a possibility the market is overconfident in his abilities.

Shough’s season passing total is currently lined within 200 yards of both Justin Herbert and Caleb Williams and 150 yards of Josh Allen, all quarterbacks with more NFL experience and a greater certainty that they will be starting in the league for seasons to come.

Last season, Shough played against an extremely favorable slate of opposing defenses.

Last year was considered a success for the rookie quarterback, but diving into the numbers raises some question marks for the Saints' passing attack.

The Saints faced the 31st-ranked schedule of opposing passing defenses last season and are currently projected to face the 21st-ranked in 2026.

In Shough’s nine starts, he faced one single team that finished the season with a winning record.

Despite the soft schedule, the Saints dug themselves into early deficits, forcing Kellan Moore into heavier passing scripts.

The Saints trailed at halftime in seven of nine games from Week 9 onward.

In fact, the Saints led the league with the most offensive snaps while trailing.

Although Shough wasn’t a complete garbage time merchant, he averaged 140 passing yards per game in the second half compared to 110 passing yards in the first half.

An improved running game could help ease some of the need to rely on Shough as often as last year.

The Saints finished 28th in total rushing yards and 31st in yards per rush in 2025 but were aggressive in signing running back Travis Etienne and guard David Edwards to help improve the run game.

A better rushing attack can lead to a lower passing rate and create fewer clock stoppages, reducing Shough’s passing yardage ceiling.

The Sharp Football season-long projections are more bullish on Shough compared to ESPN, but given the fragility of his profile, there is a good chance that Shough would need to start all 17 games to reach his season-long total.

Last season, only 11 quarterbacks started 17 games, which provides a solid argument for betting season-long quarterback unders.

In college, Shough did not start more than seven games in any of his first five seasons as he dealt with multiple different season-ending injuries.

Betting overs on a sophomore quarterback, who was drafted after six seasons of college football, is probably not optimal.

Given Shough’s injury history, there are probably multiple outs to cashing the under.

Tyler Shough Prop Bet Recommendation

• Under 3449.5 Passing Yards (+100)

Fernando Mendoza 2026 Over/Under Predictions

Taking the under on Fernando Mendoza’s season-long total is a bet on how many starts he will make more than how much success he will have in his rookie season.

The Raiders have little incentive to rush Mendoza as the team looks to be playing the long game after finishing dead last in 2025.

This isn’t a roster that can make up for significant talent deficiencies in one season, and the team hired a new head coach with long-term job security, increasing the odds that Mendoza will be slow-played in his opening season.

The Raiders signed veteran Kirk Cousins as a bridge, and Klint Kubiak has been on record since drafting Mendoza that there is no rush to having the rookie start.

This bet is calculating the possible outcomes about when Mendoza is named the starting quarterback.

The Raiders open the season against the Dolphins, who are the current favourites to hold the #1 pick in 2027.

Assuming Cousins wins the opening game in which the Raiders are favorites, Mendoza’s first start could be pushed back until November, which would allow for a maximum of 10 starts for the first-overall pick.

The Raiders have a Week 13 bye, which is favorable to the under

An early bye would make it easier to insert the rookie earlier in the season.

From Week 4 through Week 7, the Raiders face a gauntlet of difficult opponents.

Games against the Patriots, Chiefs, Bills, and Rams seem like an unlikely time to insert a rookie quarterback.

A Week 8 matchup against the Jets seems like the most likely scenario for the Raiders to start Mendoza.

If limited to the 10 final starts, which include two games against the Broncos and a game against the Seahawks, 230 yards per game given the limited receiving options outside of Brock Bowers is a lofty target.

The Raiders understand they are in rebuilding mode, evidenced by a failed Maxx Crosby trade earlier in the offseason, so it makes sense that Cousins starts in the opening months of the season.

Fernando Mendoza Prop Bet Recommendation

• Under 2299.5 Passing Yards (-115)