The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Steelers and Falcons.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Pittsburgh | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 20.8 | 23 | Points/Gm | 22.4 | 17 |
| 23.6 | 19 | Points All./Gm | 23.2 | 17 |
| 61.6 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 58.0 | 28 |
| 61.9 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.4 | 31 |
| 5.4 | 13 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 21 |
| 5.3 | 15 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 20 |
| 45.52% | 10 | Rush% | 40.71% | 26 |
| 54.48% | 23 | Pass% | 59.29% | 7 |
| 44.30% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 40.92% | 9 |
| 55.70% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 59.08% | 24 |
- The Steelers were 9th in scoring margin in the first half of games last year (+42) compared to 24th in the second half (-32).
- Pittsburgh scored on 44% of their drives in the first half (11th) compared to 34.4% in the second half (25th).
- Pittsburgh ranked third in points off turnovers margin in 2025 (+51).
- The Falcons were 29th (-43).
- The Falcons ranked 15th in success rate against passing plays (57.7%) but 26th against the run (56.4%).
Trust = spike production for that player
Falcons vs. Steelers Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Aaron Rodgers
At age 42, Rodgers was 23rd in EPA per dropback (0.01) and 32nd in success rate (39.6%), ahead of only Cam Ward (36.9%).
He completed 65.6% of his throws (16th), averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt (27th), posted a 4.8% touchdown rate (16th), and a 1.4% interception rate (8th).
Rodgers still protected the football well, taking next to no chances pushing it downfield and showing zero interest in being touched at this stage of his career.
Rodgers had the quickest time to throw from the snap in the league (2.52 seconds), paired with the shortest depth of target (6.0 air yards).
Only 25.5% of his throws went 10 or more yards downfield, the lowest rate in the league.
The league average among qualifiers for rating was 33.1%.
Rodgers threw a league-high 31.7% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.
The league rate in that department was 21.3%.
Rodgers is reuniting with Mike McCarthy, but he is in a different place in his career compared to that apex run when the two were last together.
It is tough to push Rodgers heavily the first full week as a streamer in 1QB formats.
He only had four weeks last season higher than QB15.
That said, I do buy him as a solid QB2 option with the potential to reach the back-end QB1 range if he can run hot on touchdowns.
This Atlanta defense is entering the season in a tough place.
The team opens the season without James Pearce due to suspension, and Jalon Walker is out for the year with an ACL injury.
They are rolling in five new starters in the front seven with Maason Smith, Gervon Dexter, Samson Ebukam, Christian Harris, and Za'Darius Smith.
Brandon Dorlus does return at defensive end, at least, who was second on the team with 8.5 sacks a year ago.
The secondary rolls over from a year ago, and they retained Jeff Ulbrich as defensive coordinator for scheme continuity.
Atlanta was blitz-heavy under Ulbrich, ranking second in the league in blitz rate (33.9%).
When they blitzed, they ranked 10th in the league in pressure rate (47.6%).
When Atlanta did not blitz last season, they were 23rd in pressure rate (31.7%).
Given the losses up front, they will likely have to manufacture pressure in creative ways, but with the way Rodgers gets the ball out quickly, getting to him will still be difficult.
When blitzed last season, Rodgers averaged a league-low 5.1 air yards.
Tackling will be paramount for the Atlanta defense when they do attempt to bring pressure packages.
Tua Tagovailoa
Given his release at a massive cap hit, Tagovailoa unsurprisingly ended his Miami career on a down note.
He threw for 6.9 yards per pass attempt (22nd), a 3.9% interception rate (32nd), and a 7.2% sack rate (23rd) in 2025.
On the positive side, he had a 5.2% touchdown rate (11th) and completed 67.7% of his passes (8th).
Over the past two years, Tagovailoa has averaged a league-low 6.2 air yards per pass attempt while throwing the ball 38.8% of the time outside of the numbers (26th).
When he has tried to push the ball downfield, Tagovailoa has completed 32.8% of his throws (34th) of 20 or more yards downfield,
We saw more of the same this preseason.
There were 87 passers this preseason who threw the ball 10 or more times.
Tua's 2.8 air yards per attempt were last on that list.
71.8% of his preseason passing yards after the catch.
Tagovailoa's ability to play on time could be a positive for Kevin Stefanski's scheme, but it is hard to suggest that Tua is more than a forced option for needy 2QB gamers in Week 1.
The Steelers enter the season with a healthy defense that looks strong on paper.
They are returning every starter in the front seven after ranking seventh in sacks last season (51) and 13th in pressure rate (37.3%).
They revamped a portion of the secondary, adding Jamel Dean, Jaquan Brisker, and Rayshawn Jenkins to go along with Joey Porter Jr. and Jalen Ramsey.
Falcons vs. Steelers Fantasy Running Back Preview
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More Week 1 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Seahawks | Wednesday Night Football |
| 49ers vs. Rams | Thursday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Vikings | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Giants | Sunday Night Football |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Monday Night Football |
