Oregon vs. USC Odds, Prediction & Pick: CFB Week 4

Oregon vs. USC, Current Betting Odds:

Oregon -2.5 points

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Oregon vs. USC Best Bet Prediction:

Over 62.5 points

Lincoln Riley is on his third coordinator at USC and still has no defense, so let's bet on another shootout and take the over at 62.5 points.

When Oregon Is on Offense

Oregon runs a pass-heavy offense under first-year play-caller Drew Mehringer.

Mehringer spent the last few seasons as co-offensive coordinator with Will Stein, now the head coach at Kentucky.

Oregon's biggest concern is the state of the offensive line, which is breaking in new starters at both tackle positions.

It has not gone well.

The offensive line's inexperience really showed up against Oklahoma State when the game script called for Oregon to be more aggressive attacking downfield, which led to Moore spending more time in the pocket than usual.

Against the Cowboys, Moore held the ball for 2.5 seconds or longer on 63% of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus, a significant leap from his 43% rate against Boise State when Oregon played with a lead for almost the entire second half.

Oregon's offensive line was exposed on these plays, yielding a 46% pressure rate and 4 sacks on Moore's extended dropbacks.

The Ducks don't want Moore to stay in the pocket that long.

In 2025, Oregon quarterbacks released the ball in under 2.5 seconds 55% of the time, the nation's 17th-highest rate.

But if Oregon falls behind, the offensive line could get exposed again.

When Oregon is able to stick to its quick passing attack, however, the Ducks should have success against a rebuilding USC defense.

On throws released in under 2.5 seconds, USC is allowing 7.5 yards per attempt, ranked 107th in the country.

This was an area the Trojans struggled last year as well (ranked 76th), and a step backward isn't shocking after losing safety Kamari Ramsey, who had been the leader of the secondary.

Tackling seems to be an issue for USC, a problem which has stuck to Lincoln Riley‘s squad through multiple coordinators.

Despite a relatively easy schedule, USC is averaging a broken/missed tackle against the pass once every 4.8 receptions, ranked 92nd, per Sports Info Solutions.

Although Oregon leans on the pass, the run game might be where the Ducks have a clearer advantage over USC.

USC struggled to prevent easy yards on the ground last year, ranking 107th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.

New defensive coordinator Gary Patterson doesn't seem to have fixed that flaw, as USC is allowing 1.8 yards before contact per attempt 一 an inexcusable performance given the level of competition the Trojans have faced.

Last week against Rutgers, USC's defense struggled to get off the field while getting gashed by Antwan Raymond for 122 yards on the ground.

Rutgers running backs averaged 3.3 yards before contact per attempt in that contest, while the Trojans made backfield contact on just 2 of 25 carries.

The Scarlet Knights were especially dominant running out of 11 personnel, gaining 7.7 yards per attempt on 15 carries.

That should worry USC, as 73% of Oregon's handoffs have occurred in 11 personnel this year, according to Sports Info Solutions.

If USC can't limit Oregon on the ground, it will allow the Ducks to sustain drives by avoiding third-and-long situations.

Partly because of a shaky run defense, Patterson's defense has forced opponents into third-and-long on just 19% of sets of downs, ranking 93rd.

If USC can't force Oregon into third-and-long situations, it will make it even harder to force Moore to spend time in the pocket and expose Oregon's lone offensive weakness.

When USC Is on Offense

Lincoln Riley is known for his explosive pass-centric offense, but USC has been more balanced over the last two seasons since Jayden Maiava took over at quarterback.

Although Maiava is certainly talented, he doesn't quite live up to the standard of Caleb Williams, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, or Jalen Hurts, who have led some of Riley's best offenses.

Based on situational data from FourthAndShort, USC's pass rate is just 0.2% above expected this season.

If USC tries to lean on the run game against Oregon, the Trojans may struggle to create open space against a tough Ducks defense.

In 2025, Oregon's defense ranked 34th in opponent-adjusted rushing yards allowed before contact.

The Ducks appear to have picked up where they left off by allowing just 1.4 yards before contact against Boise State and Oklahoma State, two opponents with formidable rushing attacks.

Despite limiting yards before contact, the Ducks have not been able to consistently get into the backfield.

Take a look at Oregon's early-contact numbers against FBS opponents via Sports Info Solutions:

35% contact rate at or behind the line of scrimmage, ranked 106th
11% of carries stuffed for zero or negative yards, ranked 111th

The difficult early-season schedule is a factor in those numbers, but it's still a red flag for the Oregon defense heading into another game against a capable rushing attack.

The lack of negative plays against the run has contributed to Oregon's inability to force opponents into tough down-and-distance situations.

The Ducks forced Oklahoma State and Boise State into just 11 third-and-long situations, a 17% rate which ranks 104th in the FBS.

When USC pivots to the passing attack, the key matchup will be the Trojans' offensive line against Oregon's pass rush.

USC uses a balanced passing attack in terms of getting rid of the ball quickly and having Maiava hang in the pocket to attack downfield.

The critical plays will likely be when Maiava takes his time in the pocket, and it should be a good matchup based on these stats from Pro Football Focus when the quarterback takes a dropback of 2.5 seconds or longer:

USC: 25% pressure rate allowed, ranked 3rd
Oregon: 56% pressure rate generated, ranked 21st

Those numbers suggest a slight edge for USC's offensive line, but given the level of competition, it's easier to trust Oregon's early-season production.

The Ducks' ability to get pressure on those plays will be critical to stopping the Trojans, because Oregon's secondary has not fared well against the downfield passing attack.

Boise State's Maddux Madsen completed 50% of his throws at 10 or more yards downfield against Oregon, while Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker completed those passes at a 56% clip.

Another key factor will be how quickly Oregon's secondary can close on USC receivers in the quick passing game.

On throws released in 2.5 seconds or less, Oregon is allowing a 71% completion rate (ranked 70th) but has surrendered just 5.3 yards per attempt (ranked 31st).

Koi Perich, a transfer from Minnesota, has been key to Oregon's success on those plays.

He's stepped into Dillon Thienemann‘s role at safety and leads the Ducks in tackles.

So if Oregon can get enough pressure to force USC to lean more heavily on the quick passing attack, there's a path to the Ducks slowing down the Trojans' passing game.