Alabama vs. Mississippi State, Current Betting Odds:
- Alabama -6 points
Find the odds for the top games every week of the college football season
Alabama vs. Mississippi State Best Bet Prediction:
- Mississippi State +6 points
This will be the biggest game in Starkville in a decade, so let's trust the cowbells and take Mississippi State against the spread.
When Alabama Is on Offense
Alabama has run a balanced offense this year, a change from the typical pass-heavy approach of Kalen DeBoer and his longtime coordinator and play-caller Ryan Grubb.
Based on situational data, the Tide are throwing the ball at a rate just 1.0% above expected, according to FourthAndShort.
The shift might be due to redshirt freshman quarterback Keelon Russell‘s inexperience, though increased confidence in the rushing attack is also a likely contributing factor.
It makes sense for Alabama to lean heavily on the run game in this matchup to keep the ball out of the hands of Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor.
Let's check out the matchup in the run game based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 28th in yards before contact
- Mississippi State: ranked 29th in yards before contact allowed
- Alabama: ranked 46th in yards after contact
- Mississippi State: ranked 11th in yards after contact
Mississippi State's performance against the run has been one of the surprises of the year 一 this team ranked 80th in yards before contact allowed a season ago 一 especially considering the Bulldogs returning both starting defensive tackles and minimal additions to the defensive front through the portal.
New coordinator Zach Arnett (yes, the same guy who was fired as the Bulldogs' head coach after the 2023 season) deserves credit for building a more aggressive defense that generates contact in the backfield at a 43% rate.
However, Alabama's tendency to run the ball out of heavy formations might cause problems for Arnett's defense.
Arnett likes to line up with light boxes.
Based on opponent-adjusted data, he's stacked the box at a rate 60% below expected.
But Alabama's use of 12 personnel might force him out of his comfort zone.
Mississippi State has faced 12 personnel just 18 times this year, but 49% of Alabama's handoffs have come out of 12 personnel, up from 32% in 2025.
Crimson Tide running backs are averaging 6.1 yards per attempt out of the formation.
In the passing game, Mississippi State's best chance to limit Alabama is to get pressure on Russell.
It's hard to predict whether the Bulldogs can be successful in that area due to the struggles of both teams, as evidenced by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 95th in pressure rate allowed
- Mississippi State: ranked 71st in pressure rate generated
It's worth pointing out that Alabama's issues are not entirely due to the offensive line, as Russell tends to hold the ball too long.
Russell has released the ball in under 2.5 seconds just 40% of the time, the 23rd-lowest rate out of 123 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus.
That's a trend Alabama should be concerned with, however, since Mississippi State ranks 123rd in pressure rate generated on extended dropbacks.
This might not be the matchup that exposes Russell's weakness.
Alabama should also be concerned about the Bulldogs' downfield pass defense, as attacking downfield has always been a staple of the DeBoer/Grubb offense.
Outside the red zone, Alabama has thrown the ball at least 15 yards downfield 32% of the time (FBS average: 23%), per Sports Info Solutions.
Mississippi State's secondary, led by standout cornerback Kelley Jones, is only allowing a 33% completion rate at that depth (FBS average: 44%).
So the Bulldogs potentially have the ability to limit Alabama's explosive passing attack, which would take away that area Russell has been most dangerous this year.
When Mississippi State Is on Offense
Mississippi State runs a version of the Veer and Shoot offense under head coach and play-caller Jeff Lebby.
It's a balanced, fast-paced spread attack that works best with a running threat at quarterback, which helps explain why the offense has taken off this season in its first full year with Kamario Taylor at quarterback.
Excluding sacks, Taylor is averaging 7.6 attempts per game for 54.8 yards.
Athletic quarterbacks gave Alabama problems at times in 2025, but the defense appears to have solved some of those issues.
Check out Alabama's performance against a few athletic quarterbacks the Tide has already faced (stats exclude sacks):
- LaNorris Sellers: 12 carries for 76 yards
- Ashton Daniels: 9 carries for 23 yards
- Kenny Minchey: 2 carries for 6 yards
Daniels gave Alabama all kinds of problems in 2025 with Auburn, running for 114 yards on 22 carries, so the Tide's ability to contain him looks like evidence of meaningful improvement.
Taylor's running ability helps Mississippi State's offense, but the Bulldogs also succeed when he hands off to Fluff Bothwell because the scheme creates light boxes and untouched yardage.
Check out the matchup in the run game based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Mississippi State: ranked 8th in yards before contact
- Alabama: ranked 24th in yards before contact allowed
- Mississippi State: ranked 12th in yards after contact
- Alabama: ranked 7th in yards after contact allowed
Lebby's spread offense creates light boxes for his running backs at a 78% rate this year, but the Tide have fared well in those situations.
When lined up with six or fewer defenders in the box, Alabama is allowing 2.0 yards before contact (ranked 14th) and 4.0 yards per attempt overall (ranked 25th).
Alabama defenders have also been effective at getting into the backfield and creating negative plays, allowing zero or negative yards on 24% of running back attempts, per Sports Info Solutions.
That's a concerning trend for the Bulldogs, whose running backs have been stuffed at an 18% clip, ranked 88th in the country.
The potential for negative plays in the run game could be a deciding factor if it forces Taylor to make plays from the pocket in third-and-long situations.
Mississippi State is just 4 for 21 on third down with seven or more yards to go, a 19% conversion rate that ranks 72nd.
Although Mississippi State needs its run game to be efficient for its offense to be effective, the Bulldogs' passing attack is dangerous, too.
The key to the passing game will be whether Mississippi State can generate big plays through the air, and these explosive pass game numbers certainly make it look possible:
- Mississippi State: gaining 20 or more yards on 16% of attempts, ranked 18th
- Alabama: allowing 20 or more yards on 13% of attempts, ranked 125th
However, there's reason to believe in some small-sample-size bad luck in those numbers for Alabama.
Alabama ranked 10th in explosive pass rate allowed a season ago and returned three starters to the secondary, most notably free safety Keon Sabb, one of the best in the nation at his position.
Additionally, the Tide's pass rush has drastically improved this year, which doesn't typically coincide with an increase in big plays allowed.
The key to Alabama's pass rush has been its ability to generate pressure without the blitz.
Coordinator Kane Wommack prefers to bring four or fewer pass-rushers, letting him drop more players into coverage.
In 2025, the Tide ranked 126th in blitz rate at 17%, and their rate sits at 16% through four games this year, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The difference is Alabama's pressure rate numbers on non-blitzes:
- 2025: 28.7%, ranked 75th
- 2026: 43.9%, ranked 2nd
The ability to generate pressure with just four pass-rushers could be what gives Alabama an edge in this matchup because it will allow the Tide to get pressure without sacrificing an extra defender, which could be used to spy on Taylor.
Last week's game against Missouri may have shown how effective this strategy can be, as the Tigers blitzed Taylor only once.
It's probably not a coincidence Missouri was able to limit Taylor to just six carries for 22 yards, excluding sacks 一 less than half his total in any other game.
Alabama's pass-rush success should also concern Mississippi State because it can lead to negative plays.
Like most young, mobile quarterbacks, Taylor tends to hold the ball too long, which has led to a 24% sack rate versus pressure, ranked 70th out of 91 qualified quarterbacks.
However, we shouldn't completely dismiss Taylor's chances of handling Alabama's pass rush, because his mobility also lets him create big plays outside the pocket.
Although his sack rate is concerningly high, Taylor also leads the nation with a ridiculous 15.9 yards per attempt under pressure.
It's also worth noting that Taylor has already been tested against some capable pass-rush units.
Missouri ranks 32nd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate, South Carolina ranks 21st, and Minnesota ranks fourth.
Alabama, ranked 13th, will make it four straight opponents currently ranked in the top 32.
So it's certainly reasonable to think Taylor might generate enough big plays to swing things in Mississippi State's favor despite some mistakes against pressure, just as he did in those previous contests.
Final Thoughts on Alabama vs. Mississippi State Best Bets
Games with two talented but inexperienced quarterbacks can be tough to predict, so let's take the points and bet Mississippi State against the spread.
This is arguably the biggest game in Starkville since the Bulldogs hosted Alabama when Dak Prescott was still in college.
So I'd rather trust Taylor at home than bet on Russell's ability to handle the cowbells.
