The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 16 Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots Saturday afternoon Christmas Eve game.
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 21.75 | Implied Total | 18.25 | ||
| 26.4 | 5 | Points/Gm | 21.4 | 17 |
| 20.6 | 10 | Points All./Gm | 19.2 | 7 |
| 65.1 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 59.4 | 25 |
| 62 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 16 |
| 5.6 | 13 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 18 |
| 5.4 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 5 |
| 38.97% | 23 | Rush% | 43.87% | 13 |
| 61.03% | 10 | Pass% | 56.13% | 20 |
| 41.94% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 41.20% | 10 |
| 58.06% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 58.80% | 23 |
- The Bengals have covered in six straight games, trailing only the Lions for the longest active streak in the league.
- Since Week 7, the Patriots have scored a touchdown on 10.8% of their drives, the lowest rate in the league.
- Over that same span, the Bengals have scored a touchdown on 34.1% of their drives, third in the league.
- New England has allowed a league-low 4.6 yards per play over that same period.
- New England has punted on 50.9% of their drives over the past five weeks, the highest rate in the league.
- The Patriots have converted a league-low 37.8% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns. League average is 56.8%.
- The Bengals have converted 68.0% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, fourth in the league.
- Joe Burrow leads the NFL in EPA per dropback in the red zone (0.48) while Mac Jones is 32nd (-0.29).
Quarterback
Joe Burrow: It wasn’t the prettiest last week as much of the Bengals offense looked like Burrow’s pinky finger on the afternoon, but we managed to get there in the end. Burrow threw for a season-low 5.1 yards per pass attempt Sunday, but the repeated mistakes by the Bucs provided enough short field scoring opportunities for Burrow to take advantage of and he did not waste them. Burrow threw four touchdown passes, three of which came right after turnovers in Tampa Bay territory.
Burrow has now thrown multiple touchdown passes in three straight games and in seven of his past nine games.
This will be Burrow’s first game against a Bill Belichick-led defense. The Patriots are allowing a league-low 59.3% completion rate with 6.6 Y/A (seventh), but we have some success starting to crack through as their schedule has gotten tougher.
Over the past four games, the Patriots have allowed QB1 scoring weeks to Kirk Cousins (21.9 points), Josh Allen (16.9 points), and Derek Carr (19.2) surrounding a game in which they faced Colt McCoy. That has been the story so far with the Patriots. Outside of Tua Tagovailoa in Week 1, every fantasy-relevant starter has gotten there. This game total does leave a lot to be desired as far as ceiling expectations go, but Burrow is a fantasy QB1.
