Week 6 gave us our share of surprises. Early Sunday morning we found the exchange rate for interceptions in London might be a little more expensive for Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Then the night ended as expected — Philip Rivers with the ball trailing by a score at the end of a game.

There’s plenty to take away from a wild day of football, so let’s dive in.

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1. A shift in the NFC West

Just as everyone predicted, the San Francisco 49ers lead the NFC West with a 5-0 record, while the Los Angeles Rams sit third at 3-3. There really wasn’t a more important game for playoff leverage than this Week 6 matchup, won 20-7 by San Francisco.

 

The Niners and Rams have essentially swapped roles, not just in the standings but with how they’ve played on the field. San Francisco surprisingly was first in DVOA after Week 5 (though we already know they won’t be first after Week 6) and Los Angeles was in the middle of the pack (17th).

San Francisco has also taken LA’s role as the team where everything clicks and if something doesn’t, there’s another unit ready to pick up the slack. That’s what happened for the 49ers against the Rams when the offense didn’t have a particularly great showing, but the defense was able to step up and hold the Rams to just seven points, all of which came on the opening drive.

But despite the win, the offense left a lot to be desired. Every running back had negative Expected Points Added on the ground, per nflscrapR data from the Baldwin boxscore, and Raheem Mostert led the three-headed committee with a 31% success rate. Still, the ability to possess the ball and get some short fields also masked a passing game that didn’t work all that well. Jimmy Garoppolo had negative EPA per drop back (minus-0.05) though passing success on early downs (0.41 EPA per play) was enough to keep the offense moving.

Between the defense and the overall scheme of the offense, there is enough to cover up lackluster quarterback play. San Francisco right now is deep enough with talent all over the roster and well-coached enough on both sides of the ball, that they’ve been able to mask that Garoppolo has mostly been fine. The good thing is, that’s all the 49ers need him to be when everything else is working.

When everything else isn’t working, that’s when problems arise and that’s where the Rams currently find themselves. After a well-planned opening drive that saw the Rams go 56 yards, all on runs, for a touchdown, nothing happened on offense. Jared Goff finished the game with 3.3 yards per attempt and minus-0.63 EPA per play. Just 3% of Goff’s passes picked up a first down. He was often forced to be a drop back passer and that hasn’t been where his strengths have been as a quarterback.

There’s been a lot written about what’s going on with the Rams. The “blueprint” involves a six-man front with a lone linebacker to shut down the dangerous outside zone runs. That’s been part of it, but that also wasn’t really the case against San Francisco. The Niners ran a few defensive plays with a 6-1 look, but they spent most of the game, especially the first half with a typical four-man front and they were able to shut down whatever the Rams wanted to do.

So much of the Rams’ struggles so far have come with poor execution on things that just worked the past two seasons. Take this tight end screen off play-action early in the second quarter with the game still tied 7-7. Screens like this (though not to the tight end) are a Rams staple and as it got set up, safety Jaquiski Tartt (29) read it and left tackle Andrew Whitworth couldn’t get out quick enough to block him. It goes as a three-yard loss and sets up a third and long.

 

The offensive line dominance just isn’t there, either. Last season the Rams easily had one of the best offensive lines in the league. They were first in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate and had the lowest “stuffed” rate in the run game, per Football Outsiders. This year, they’ve been one of the worst pass-blocking teams and were just average at preventing losses against the run — 13th in stuffed rate through Week 5 with another six runs against San Francisco stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.

San Francisco has enough going right at the moment that small issues can be overcome. The Rams, on the other hand, have too many small problems, they’ve turned into one big one. 

2. Eagles secondary is a primary issue

The Philadelphia Eagles have been mentioned as a potential landing spot for Jalen Ramsey. Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has been one of the most aggressive executives in trading for veteran players, so naturally, the Eagles make sense. But it looks like the Jaguars are less likely to trade Ramsey than they were a few weeks ago — thanks to owner Shad Khan, who stepped in and thought trading a shutdown corner in his prime would be a bad idea. But after what Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings did to the Philadelphia secondary in a 38-20 win, Roseman should call around the league, find what other corners might be on the market, and trade for all of them.

Cousins threw for 11.5 yards per attempt and 0.73 EPA per play against the Eagles on Sunday. So much of that came to wide open receivers, especially Stefon Diggs, who caught seven passes for 167 yards and three touchdowns. The Vikings consistently got Diggs isolated on Rasul Douglas and it led to a few big plays.

On a 62-yard touchdown, Diggs was out wide to the left. Adam Thielen ran a crossing route, which froze safety Rodney McCleod. Diggs was able to run right past Douglas for an easy touchdown.

 

The Eagles were a team down Ronald Darby and Avante Maddox, but even at full strength, the secondary was a weakness for this Eagles roster. And when a non-healthy secondary allows Cousins to put up the week’s highest QBR (91.4), there’s definitely some help needed.

Chris Harris would make a lot of sense as a veteran option who wants out of the current Denver wasteland. He’s on the final year of his contract and would only cost a little over $6 million for the rest of the season. He’s still only 30 years old and has outside and slot versatility that would allow him to fill whatever role the Eagles need.

Philadelphia isn’t a team that’s going to look at one game and make a rash decision, but given the current layout of the secondary there is clearly room for an upgrade, especially with the Eagles still positioned as favorites in the NFC East.

3. Kyle Allen vs Cam Newton

With Kyle Allen as the starting quarterback, the Carolina Panthers are 3-0. The Panthers are 4-2 overall after a 37-26 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in London and sit in prime position for a playoff spot. Before the game kicked off on Sunday morning, NFL Network’s Ian Rappoport reported the Panthers could keep rolling with Allen as long as he’s winning. Another win strengthened the conversation surrounding Allen’s future with the Panthers and what that could mean for Cam Newton.

This conversation has been framed around Allen, but really it’s all about Newton. Allen, to this point, has been fine. He’s 15th in QBR, pending Monday Night Football. He’s completed a slightly higher rate of passes than would be expected, per Next Gen Stats (plus-2.3%, which ranks 11th). There’s some accuracy issues that would preferably be fixed, but overall Allen has been fine. He hasn’t been a reason Carolina has lost any games, but he hasn’t really been a reason they’ve won, either.

Newton, on the other hand, is still the type of quarterback who can carry a team when healthy. The problem, though, is health and that is what shapes this entire discussion. Allen is a better quarterback than the version of Newton we saw in 2019 and the second half of 2018, but he’s not a better quarterback than a healthy Newton. That Newton led the Panthers to the sixth-best passing DVOA through Week 9 last season before his shoulder injury sapped his effectiveness.

The only question that really matters is how the Panthers feel about Newton’s health. If they believe he can get back to 100% then that has to be the option at quarterback. But if the number of injuries continues to pile up and there’s fear Newton might not be the same player upon his return, then that changes the outlook.

Carolina could get out of Newton’s contract with just $8.5 million in dead money this offseason with $14.7 million in cap savings. But that’s a decision all about Newton. Allen’s played just well enough that the Panthers don’t have to rush Newton back onto the field, but he hasn’t been nearly good enough to be the one to force a long-term decision at quarterback. 

4. Lamar Jackson back on track

Lamar Jackson started the season on fire, but cooled over the past few weeks. As currently constructed, the Ravens might have an offense that can beat up on bad defenses but will struggle with better ones. The good news is on Sunday, Baltimore played Cincinnati and a terrible defense.

Jackson took control of the game, both through the air and on the ground. It was his best performance since the Week 2 win over the Arizona Cardinals, a game where he also had over 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards. This week against the Bengals, Jackson threw for 236 and ran for 152. He was incredibly efficient in both aspects of his game.

It’s a good bounceback for Jackson after he struggled in an overtime win against the Steelers last week. Baltimore’s next two games are going to be big for finding out where the Ravens sit as contenders. They’ll travel to Seattle next week, then a bye, then they host the Patriots for Sunday Night Football in Week 9.

The Ravens have a two-game lead in the AFC North after the Browns lost to the Seahawks, so they’re still favorites to make the playoffs. But how they fare against Seattle and New England over the next three weeks will help sort whether the Ravens really are a team we should take seriously with the second-tier in the AFC unclear or if they might be a team that needs another offseason to turn into a true contender.

5. What is the Dallas offense?

Just a few weeks ago, Kellen Moore was the next sensation as a young offensive mind. As Dallas’s offensive coordinator, Moore had the Cowboys doing everything one would want a modern offense to do — pass on early downs, use play-action, heavy pre-snap motion. But the Dallas offense has been a little stale over the past two weeks.

In a 24-22 loss to the New York Jets on Sunday, the Cowboys looked more like they did in the middle of 2018 than the start of 2019. Even from the broadcasting booth, Tony Romo noted the offense looked like it had more Jason Garrett influence that wasn’t there earlier.

Against the Jets, the Cowboys relied on the run and it just didn’t work for them, especially on early downs. Dallas had a nearly even pass-run split on early downs in this game but on 33 drop backs the Cowboys averaged 0.18 EPA per play and a 55% success rate. On 28 early down rushing attempts, the Cowboys averaged minus-0.03 EPA per play with a 36% success rate.

Ezekiel Elliott was a much better part of the passing game (0.67 EPA per play and 71% first down rate) than he was on the ground (minus-0.04 EPA per play and an 18% first down rate). Dak Prescott still played well despite the game plan. He finished with a 73.5 QBR and 0.21 EPA per play.

The Cowboys have to figure out what they are. You can say the offensive performance over the first two weeks came against bad defenses, which is true, but even the structure of the offense has changed. There’s less play-action. They’ve been more run-heavy on first and second down. The creative designs have become bland. They’re going deep less often.

If Kellen Moore has just gotten more traditional, that’s a problem but it’s fixable. If this is something that’s been mandated from the head coach, that’s a much bigger issue and harder to change. Next week they have a Sunday Night Football matchup against an Eagles secondary that just got exposed by the Vikings. It’s a perfect place to get back to where they were earlier in the season. And if it’s not, the schedule gets much tougher for Dallas starting in Week 10. 

6. Saints Defense Turnaround

Last season the New Orleans Saints started the season as one of the league’s worst defenses and turned it around in the second half. By DVOA, the New Orleans defense ranked 26th from Weeks 1-9 then fourth from Weeks 10-17. New Orleans started as a bad defense this season, but the turnaround might have started earlier.

After Week 3, the Saints were 28th in DVOA and have already moved up to 20th after Week 5. With a 13-6 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, that ranking should improve again.

There were signs the New Orleans defense had a shot of improving. Through Week 5, the Saints ranked first among all defenses in pressure rate, per Sports Info Solutions. The defense only sacked Gardner Minshew twice and hit him just once more but they did enough to disrupt the rookie passer and cause his worst day as a pro.

Minshew mostly tried to extend plays and create — he had an above-average 2.9 seconds to throw per Next Gen Stats — but that threw off the rhythm of the offense and there wasn’t anything open. The most impressive part of the Saints turnaround so far has been the play of the secondary. Marshon Lattimore was getting roasted over the first few weeks of the season, but he’s come through with a solid stretch of games, kicked off with holding down Amari Cooper.

New Orleans’s offense wasn’t very impressive against Jacksonville, but it was enough to get the win. The Saints now sit at 5-1 with Drew Brees expected back soon. If the defense can take over games like it has the past few weeks, the Saints have a claim as the best team in a suddenly wide-open NFC. 

7. Game of the Century: Washington at Miami

This. Game. Had. Everything. Here’s just a sample:

  • Josh Rosen started the game and finished with a QBR of 2.8
  • His average throw traveled just 2 yards past the line of scrimmage and his average completion was 1.8 yards behind the line of scrimmage
  • Terry McLaurin was awesome — four catches, 100 yards, two touchdowns, 1.04 EPA per play
  • Adrian Peterson overrode an audible at the line
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick entered in relief of Rosen and scored a touchdown to bring Miami within one
  • The Dolphins ran a 2-point conversion attempt to win the game and ran a screen to Kenyan Drake, who basically swatted the ball to the ground to ensure the loss

Washington escaped with the 17-16 win a good enough result for a team not trying to be this bad against one being this bad on purpose. Miami did just enough to keep the ending entertaining but kept pole position for the top pick in the draft. Now we wait until Week 16 when the Bengals travel to Miami to decide the top of the draft board.

8. Play(s) of the day: Kyler Murray Goes Deep

There have been flashes of what a full-systems-go Arizona Cardinals offense could look like with Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury. Arizona’s 34-33 win over the Atlanta Falcons was the closest we’ve seen to a full game of it. Murray easily had his best game as a pro — 9.2 yards per attempt, three passing touchdowns, and a QBR of 90.3.

What was really impressive, though, were a number of deep shots Murray was able to take. We’re taking two of them here as plays of the day. This is usually a section for play design, but execution is going to take over here this week. Murray hit Trent Sherfield for a 38-yard pass in the first quarter and Damiere Byrd for a 58-yard gain to start the second. Per Next Gen Stats, those throws had completion probabilities of 17.7% and 17.8%, respectively, the 13th and 14th least likely completions of the 2019 season.

 

This is the deep accuracy Murray showed in college, a big part of what made him worthy of the No. 1 overall pick, but it hasn’t been something he’s been able to showcase this year. The Cardinals spend a lot of time on offense working around a poor offensive line, but that wasn’t an issue against the Falcons. If the protection can hold up going forward, there’s a lot of fun that could be had in Arizona.

9. Chart of the day: Will Fuller

Usually we highlight an impressive chart, but Will Fuller’s is a glimpse at what could have been. Fuller remains one of the best deep threats in the league, but the consistency will always be an issue. Last week, Fuller caught 14 passes for 217 yards and three touchdowns. This week, he dropped what could have been three touchdowns.

While those drops are bad — and would have been worse had the Texans not beaten the Chiefs — they also show the importance of earning the target. Fuller can get open. The catches are going to be there. There might be some drops, but it’s something that any team can live with because when those plays hit, they’re game-changers. Fuller didn’t get to change the game against the Chiefs, but he did against the Chargers and probably will again at some point this season.

10: Let Russell Be Russell

 

This drive ended up being one in the third quarter, not the first, but it still stands as Russell Wilson being able to take control of the offense and call his own plays successfully. On this drive, the Seahawks went 58 yards in seven plays. They didn’t face a third down until the final play of the drive, which resulted in a touchdown.

The Seahawks don’t have to let Wilson call all his own plays, but they need to let him be himself more often. We wrote last week about how special Wilson has been this season and how often his own offense tries to undercut that.

Against Cleveland, the Seahawks averaged 0.48 EPA per play through the air and minus-0.23 on the ground (though Chris Carson did have positive EPA). Wilson is one of the league’s best quarterbacks — and might be playing the best this season — it’s about time his own team treated him like it.