2026 NFL Strength Of Schedule, Regular Season

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With odds released for all 32 NFL teams, we are now able to calculate NFL Strength of Schedule using projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.

What NFL team has the easiest schedule in 2026?

Based on projected win totals, the Detroit Lions have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2026 NFL season.

NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2026:

1. Detroit Lions
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. New Orleans Saints
4. New York Jets
5. Baltimore Ravens

What NFL team has the hardest schedule in 2026?

Based on projected win totals, the Arizona Cardinals have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2026 NFL season.

NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2026:

1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Washington Commanders
5. Dallas Cowboys

We've ranked the 2026 schedule for every NFL team from easiest (#1) to hardest (#32), plus current betting odds and win totals for every NFL team.

2026 NFL Strength of Schedule:

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2026 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization

While there are no perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2026 Vegas win totals is much better than most widely used metrics that incorporate the previous season's record.

Here is a visual breakdown of 2026 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each NFL team, based on Vegas win totals.

Strength of Schedule Tool

Our new strength of schedule tool allows you to see the week-to-week difficulty for all 32 teams across more than 10 metrics, including Warren Sharp's strength of schedule model.

Use it to see which teams have the toughest start to the season, which teams have an easy stretch run, and much more for multiple advanced metrics.

Click here to use our new Strength of Schedule Tool

How Has NFL Strength of Schedule Changed Since June?

Since June 1, the top-five easiest shifts in schedule difficulty:

1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Las Vegas Raiders
3. New York Jets
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Detroit Lions

The Bengals' schedule shifted from #3 easiest to #2 easiest but showed the largest overall increase in ease due to facing several teams whose 2026 outlook has been bet against the most.

Cincinnati faces the Browns twice, the Dolphins, and the Bucs this season.

Those three teams rank in the top four of teams whose win totals have been bet against the most since June.

As a result, because the betting market is fading those teams, the schedule has gotten easier for the Bengals.

The Raiders' schedule was the #19 most difficult.

It has shifted to the #13 most difficult because they have games against the Browns, Dolphins, and Cardinals, the top-three teams who were bet against most so far since June.

Since June 1, the top-five toughest shifts in schedule difficulty:

1. Green Bay Packers
2. Washington Commanders
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Arizona Cardinals
5. Tennessee Titans

The Packers previously ranked as the #17 easiest schedule but have dropped to #24.

This is in large part due to their schedule including games against the Lions twice, the Cowboys, the Rams, and the Texans.

These four teams rank in the top six of teams whose win totals have been bet most towards the over since June.

As a result, the Packers' schedule is now viewed as being more difficult than it was earlier this offseason.

The Commanders ranked as having the #25 easiest schedule in June, but now rank #29 (aka #4 toughest).

Washington faces the Cowboys twice as well as the Bengals.

Those two teams have been bet to the over more than any team since June.

Three games against the top two most bet on teams.

They also have games against the Rams, Texans, and Giants twice, all of whom rank in the top seven of most bet on teams since June.

That makes for a more difficult schedule for the Commanders than envisioned earlier this offseason.

Why are prior season win-loss records unreliable when predicting strength of schedule?

Basing strength of schedule on last year's records is lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient.

NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development.

Additionally, the NFL's 17-game season is a small sample size.

Outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, such as fumble recoveries or tipped passes.

These factors make prior season records a poor indicator of future performance.

Statistical analysis supports this.

From 2010 to 2018, only 5.7% of a team's actual SOS was explained by opponents' prior-year records, and this correlation dropped to just 3.9% in more recent years.

Strength of schedule calculations based on prior season records do not effectively predict future team success.

For instance, regression analysis showed that only 0.028% of a team's wins could be explained by the traditional SOS metric, with a p-value of 0.79, indicating no statistically significant relationship.

This underscores the inadequacy of using past records to forecast future outcomes.

In short, traditional strength of schedule doesn't predict anything related to future success.

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Why do predicted win totals provide more accurate strength of schedule results?

Projected win totals incorporate current information about team strength, including offseason acquisitions, injuries, and coaching changes.

These projections are crafted by sportsbooks aiming to predict future performance, making them more reflective of a team's current capabilities.

While no SOS metric is perfect, using Vegas win totals provides a better indication of what teams could look like in the upcoming season than relying on the previous year's wins.

We know that certain teams will benefit from luck factors in games next season, such as fumble recoveries, opponent field goal misses, tipped passes that result in interceptions, and red zone variance.

But with current projected win totals, the pure luck factors that decide games are not incorporated.

Think of it as if they are ignored or are evenly distributed across all 32 teams.

But looking at last year’s records, that is not the case.

There is not an even distribution of these luck factors, and as a result, prior-year records are skewed due to luck.

Thus, incorporating those wonky results into future calculations leads to a higher error rate.

Ignoring luck (or distributing it equally among all 32 teams) will increase schedule projection accuracy.

How accurate is Warren Sharp's model for determining strength of schedule?

By leveraging projected win totals and current season data, Warren Sharp’s strength of schedule model provides a more accurate and insightful tool for assessing team schedules and forecasting performance.

Historical data confirms these results. Year in and year out:

• Teams that are predicted to have the easiest schedule are far more likely to finish with winning records.
• Teams that are predicted to have the hardest schedules are far more likely to finish with losing records.
• The vast majority of teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules finish the season with winning records.
• The vast majority of teams forecast to have losing records and predicted to have harder than average schedules finish the season with losing records.

Are Warren Sharp’s strength of schedule projections accurate? 

Short answer: YES

Is strength of schedule important?

• In 2025, just 2 of 8 teams with the toughest schedules made the playoffs (Texans, Rams). That list included the Vikings and the Chiefs.

Historically, trying to overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens.

But winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectations happens often.