1st & 10: Packers Press Toward Playoffs, Bucs Win NFC South, Giants Clinch & More From Week 17

With 17 weeks down we almost have a full picture of the NFL Playoffs. Somehow, after a long and winding road, Week 17 gave us a division winner we all expected at the start of the season and another likely playoff team on the verge of a spot after an inconsistent season.

All stats listed are provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise.

1. The Packers Pressed Their Way To A Win-and-In Playoff Game

After Week 12, the Green Bay Packers were 4-8 and had a 3% chance to make the playoffs, per the FiveThirtyEight model. After the Packers’ 41-17 win against the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay is a Week 18 win away from a playoff berth.

The Packers haven’t been great but they’ve flashed just enough over the past few weeks, especially on offense, to string together four straight wins. After the game. Aaron Rodgers told the media, “this is probably the first game of the season we played complementary football in all three phases.” It’s hard to argue against that and while the complete game is nice to see for the Packers, the play and adjustments from the defense might be the most notable piece — especially for what they did against Justin Jefferson.

In the first meeting between these two teams, Jefferson had 184 yards and two touchdowns while the Packers sat in zone and didn’t allow Jaire Alexander to shadow the star receiver. It was clear from the start that the Packers would have a different game plan in the rematch.

The Packers have been a 41% Cover-3 team this season but abandoned single-high coverages to allow for a bracket over the top of Jefferson. Green Bay ran just 7% of plays in Cover-3 while they were in a season-high 19.3% of snaps in Cover-2 and the 28.1% Cover-6 rate was below just last week at 28.1%. (Three of the four times the Packers have used at least 20% Cover-6 have been in the past three weeks.)

In the first half, Alexander shadowed Jefferson on 62.5% of his snaps, per Next Gen Stats. Jefferson had no receptions on two targets with Alexander in coverage in the first half with no catches on another two targets without Alexander in coverage. What also stood out was how aggressive the Packers were on the line against Jefferson. Next Gen Stats had Alexander with 11 snaps in press coverage against Jefferson but it didn’t really matter who was across from the receiver. The goal was to get hands on him.

Watch how aggressive Alexander is at the bottom of the screen. This pass on second-and-6 is tipped at the line but it’s hard to imagine the ball getting through that tight coverage.

 

 

In the second quarter on the Adrian Amos interception, Jefferson was lined up in the slot and rookie linebacker Quay Walker was the closest defender. Walker got hands on Jefferson and as the receiver worked to get around it, he slipped on the turf.

 

 

The pass was again tipped at the line, which does show how much else was going wrong for the Vikings but the Packers were making it as hard as possible for Minnesota to run the offense through Jefferson. The Packers made it as hard as possible for just about every aspect of the Vikings’ passing game. Green Bay finished the game with eight quarterback hits and 10 passes defensed. It’s the eighth time this season a defense has finished with at least 10 passes defensed.

Per Next Gen Stats, 22.6% of Kirk Cousins’s pass attempts were into a tight window (defined as a yard or less of separation) after 14.6% of his throws were into tight windows through Week 16.

Offensively, the Packers were fine. They finished the day 13th in EPA per dropback and 10th in EPA per rush. 

Green Bay has slowly reached and maintained competency on offense over the second half of the season. The running game has found some success and the passing game has produced a few splash plays but there have not been many times everything has come together.

The Packers still have some issues to work out, especially in the passing game. Rodgers threw his lowest percentage of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage on the season (8.3% while averaging 30.3% for the season) and upped his short passing (1-10 air yards) to a season-high 58.3%. But Rogers also had one of his highest rates of throwing deep and that’s a part of the offense that just hasn’t been consistent in this last stretch of the season no matter how hard Rodgers has tried.

Against the Vikings, Rodgers went 1-of-5 on passes of 20 or more air yards. He’s had negative EPA on deep throws in five of his past six games and the positive game featured just one attempt.

For the Vikings, this added another chapter to a strange season. Minnesota is 12-4 but with this performance, they dropped to 28th in DVOA for the season. As things stand now, the Vikings would be the No. 3 seed in the NFC, hosting the No. 6 seed New York Giants — a game we just saw which needed a 61-yard Vikings field goal to win. The Vikings could still get the No. 2 seed (and a potential rematch with the Packers) with a win over the Lions and an unlikely loss from the 49ers to the Cardinals.

2. The Bucs Are NFC South Champs

Rodgers wasn’t the only veteran quarterback steering a formerly lifeless team toward the playoffs. After all the ups and downs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still the 2022 NFC South champions. The 30-24 win over the Carolina Panthers might have also been one of their most promising.

The Buccaneers had their best first down performance by EPA (0.33) and yards per play (7.91) of the season. Tom Brady went 15-of-18 for 204 yards with a 10.17-yard aDOT on first down against the Panthers. Tampa Bay used more motion (71.9%) on first down than it had in any other game this season (previous season average: 53.3%) but the Buccaneers also just took advantage of favorable looks when they got them.

With Carolina’s secondary working through some injuries, the Buccaneers were able to get some one-on-one mismatches on the outside. Near the end of the second quarter, the Buccaneers came out in a 2×2 set on a first-and-10 from their own 37-yard line. Mike Evans was lined up against Keith Taylor. With Chris Godwin in the slot to Evan’s side, the deep safety to that side of the field couldn’t sell out and get over to help down the sideline and Evans easily cleared Taylor for a 63-yard touchdown.

 

 

Later, the Panthers tried to put C.J. Henderson on Evans. Through Week 16, Henderson was 68th among 72 qualified outside cornerbacks in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap. When the Buccaneers got that one-on-one look, they connected on a 57-yard touchdown on a third-and-6 to start the fourth quarter.

Tampa Bay’s go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter came on another shot to Evans with a one-on-one matchup against Henderson. The Panthers came out in an aggressive look with no deep safeties on the play. Carolina tried to give a pressure look with eight defenders in the box and seven on the line of scrimmage.

But at the snap, the Panthers still only rushed four and with seven blockers in, the attempted pre-snap confusion wasn’t nearly enough to create pressure. That left the favorable matchup on the outside again and Evans beat Henderson to the end zone for a 30-yard touchdown.

 

 

Brady had a season-high six completions of 20 or more yards in this game. That’s a positive step but he accomplished that feat six times in 2021.

On the defensive side, the Buccaneers were able to stuff a Panthers run game that had just gone for over 200 yards last week. With Vita Vea on the field, the Panthers averaged just 1.25 yards before contact and 3.0 yards per carry with a long on nine yards on 12 attempts. The Panthers couldn’t even try to run outside the tackles, where they’ve had a lot of their success in the Sam Darnold-led offense. Carolina had three carries for two yards outside the tackles in this game.

Keeping that run game in check also limited what the Panthers could do off the play-action game and forced Darnold to play more as a dropback passer in obvious passing situations. Darnold still had impressive efficiency metrics as he hit a few big plays but the passing offense was not able to sustain or create a big enough lead to hold the Buccaneers back.

After the Buccaneers took the lead, the Panthers went three-and-out with two Darnold incompletions and the following drive lasted one play with a strip sack.

Tampa Bay has flashed some during the season, but the question for any playoff success could hinge on how much they allow the offense to open up — Brady had 432 passing yards — or if the offensive philosophy that has dragged the Buccaneers through the season makes a return.

3. Brian Daboll Coached The Giants To The Playoffs

The New York Giants are in the playoffs. They probably shouldn’t be. This was purposely one of the worst rosters in the league entering the season as the Giants worked to clean up the cap for 2023 and beyond. But along the way, the Giants ran into some wins and with great coaching have clinched a playoff spot, locked in as the No. 6 seed in the NFC.

Daniel Jones was tied for the league lead in EPA per play among quarterbacks in Week 17 (0.40). On the season, he’s 11th. Leaning into his mobility has been a big key and that carried the early part of the season. The Giants’ offense was built off bootlegs that gave Jones either an open crossing route or room to run.

The Giants have also opened up the designed run game for Jones later in the season. He had six designed runs for 55 yards and a touchdown — an 18-yarder in the third quarter.

 

 

It’s not just about the effectiveness of the runs but how they’re built into the offense, especially the scrambles. Jones has 56 scrambles and 51 designed runs on the season. Last year, Jones had 23 scrambles and 29 designed runs. The year before that was 22 scrambles and 27 designed runs. The encouragement to scramble — especially on those bootlegs — has limited what Jones has done poorly in his career. With the incentive to run, he’s not forcing balls into tight windows for interceptions and he’s not hanging in the pocket too long and getting strip-sacked.

Only Justin Fields has more scrambles than Jones this season and just Field and Josh Allen have more scramble yards. 

Still over the past few weeks, the Giants have still found success throwing the ball. That shouldn’t be the case. Look at the players who have run at least 100 routes for the Giants this season:

Giants With 100+ Routes Run, 2022
data per TruMedia

The Giants still lack explosive plays and a lack of a deep passing game plays a part (Jones threw no deep passes against the Colts) but the Giants are still 15th in the rate of drives that end in a score and 15th in the rate of drives that end in a three-and-punt.

This has been an excellent coaching job by this staff that has put players in a great situation to succeed.

4. Don’t Fall For The Chargers, But If You Wanted To…

Justin Herbert was the quarterback who tied Jones for the lead in EPA per play among quarterbacks this week. Herbert didn’t do anything incredible or have crazy production on deep shots and that might be a good thing. Herbert was just good. 21-of-28 for 202 yards.

What might be more promising for the Chargers is a defense that’s rounding into shape. Over the Chargers’ four-game win streak since Week 14, the defense ranks second in EPA per play and first in EPA per dropback. Of course the caveat here is the competition includes the Dolphins, Titans, Colts, and Rams in that stretch but also there were versions of this defense early in the season that could have been bad against those teams.

Brandon Staley has been able to lean into some things that worked when he was with the Rams as the Chargers have gotten back to using more zone coverage. Through Week 13, the Chargers were using zone on 63.7% of snaps, which ranked 28th in the league. But over the past four weeks, they’ve gone up to 75.5%, which is eighth. The Chargers are also easily the best team in zone coverage over that stretch by EPA per dropback.

The real new wrinkle is how often the Chargers are blitzing out of those zone looks. Their 31.1% blitz rate with zone coverage is fifth in the league since Week 14 and no team has come close to being as effective with the extra rushers. 

Kyle Van Noy forced a strip sack against Baker Mayfield on a third-and-4 in the third quarter as the Chargers rotated down to a 5-1 front with Van Noy and Khalil Mack on the edges with three interior linemen inside.

 

 

The Chargers might not have to blitz as often with Joey Bosa back in the lineup but it now gives another changeup the defense can use. 

5. Seahawks Use A Run Game And Defense To Stay Alive

The Seahawks didn’t have a great day through the air but they were still able to break through on the ground and keep their playoff hopes alive thanks to a 23-6 win over the Jets.

Kenneth Walker had 133 rushing yards, though that came with just a 34.8% success rate. Walker had a 60-yard run in the game but also 21.7% of his runs were stopped for zero or negative yards. He’s been that type of boom-or-bust back for most of the season, though the boom had not quite been there of late.

Seattle struggled a bit through the air against the Jets’ corners. Sauce Gardner had four passes defensed — two against DK Metcalf, both with another defender in the area — for a league-leading 20. The next-highest defender is at 15.

But it was Seattle’s defense that was able to make the difference. Mike White had a lot of problems whether he was pressured or kept clean. The Seahawks didn’t blitz often but they were still able to pressure White on nearly half of his dropbacks. That led to four sacks, two interceptions, and a QBR of 12.2. 

The Seahawks hit White 10 times, including three from Quenton Jefferson and two from Darrell Taylor. 24 pressures was easily Seattle’s most in a game this season and that disruption threw off a lot of what the Jets and White wanted to do in the passing game.

White averaged over three seconds to throw in an offense that has been built around getting the ball out quickly in rhythm. Per Next Gen Stats, White had -11.3% completion percentage over expectation, which is flirting with Zach Wilson levels in that offense.

Seattle will now make the playoffs with a Packers loss and a win over the Rams. 

6. The Lions Keep Running

After slashing their playoff odds by getting run all over by the Panthers last week, the Lions kept those hopes alive by running over the Bears. It looked like it might be the other way around when Justin Fields had 105 rushing yards in the first quarter but he finished the game with 132 and only completed 33.3% of his passes.

Jamaal Williams ran for 144 yards, his second 100-yard performance of the season. He also added his league-leading 15th rushing touchdown. Williams added a 58-yard run on a counter play in the fourth quarter.

The Lions have shied away from counter runs after using them more earlier in the season as they’ve excelled at gap and power runs with this offensive line but over the past few weeks, they’ve been able to pick their spots with these runs and have created some big plays.

Detroit also added another rushing wrinkle with a 40-yard Jameson Williams reverse from the outside. The Lions remain the league’s most diverse run game. That’s going to be needed next week against the Packers, who are 27th in EPA per rush on defense.

The Lions need a win against the Packers and a Seahawks loss to the Rams to get in the playoffs.

7. Is it time to worry about the Eagles?

No. Carry on.

8. Chart of the day

Brandon Aiyuk had nine catches for 101 yards and a touchdown acting as the 49ers’ top wide receiver against the Raiders, though he only had one catch for the touchdown through the first half. Six of his catches came in the fourth quarter. One came to help set up the game-tying touchdown and four were on San Francisco’s final drive in regulation that ended with a missed 41-yard field goal.

9. Play of the day

It’s stupid how easy Patrick Mahomes can make plays like this look. He’s the MVP.

10. Lets’s Check In On The Other AFC Teams

The Jaguars and Titans play for the AFC South on Saturday night. Jacksonville is one of the hottest teams in the league, developing as the season progresses and the Titans might be starting Josh Dobbs. FiveThirtyEight odds: 74% for Jacksonville, 26% for Tennessee.

New England somehow gets in with a win despite a civil war on offense throughout the season. They play the Bills, who are still in the running for the No. 1 seed and a bye. FiveThirtyEight odds: 29%.

Miami went from 8-3 to 8-8 and on the outside of the playoff race. The Dolphins just had another Tua-less game started by one quarterback and finished with another. Skylar Thompson was fine (-0.01 EPA per play) but there are certainly elements of the offense that are not the same without Tua on the field. Miami is in with a win over the Jets and a Patriots loss. FiveThirtyEight odds: 53%.

If the Patriots and Dolphins both lose, the Steelers would be in. Kenny Pickett just had another game where there was nothing happening over the first three quarters and then the final drives were magic. Pickett averaged -0.08 EPA per play and 4.53 yards per attempt. In the fourth quarter, he averaged 0.38 EPA per play and 8.33 yards per attempt. FiveThirtyEight odds: 15%.

Given the Kevin Clark Rule of 15%, the Steelers are making the playoffs.