1st & 10: Lions Upset Packers, Jags Win AFC South, 2022 NFL Awards & More From Week 18

The regular season has concluded. In a tribute to the 2022 season, there was some sloppy football across Week 18. We also got some exciting finishes and the playoff bracket is complete. 

All six games in Wild Card weekend will be regular season rematches. We’ll get to those later in the week. For the season finale of 1st & 10, we’ll go through a few takeaways from the week’s action and then dive into season awards.

NFL award discourse can be tiresome but these awards are a useful snapshot not just for the players but for how we understand and talk about what happened during the season. That’s the case, even more, this season as the ballots have expanded. Instead of voting for just one player per award, there will be five votes for MVP and three for the other awards. My picks for those honors will start at No. 4.

But first, some Week 18 action…

All stats listed are provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise.

1. Detroit Sent Green Bay Packing And Seattle Into The Playoffs

When the Seahawks beat the Rams earlier in the afternoon and eliminated the Lions from playoff contention, there was some concern Detroit might not have anything to play for. Those concerned never met Dan Campbell.

Not only did the Lions play hard, they upset the Packers and kept the division rival from a playoff berth in what could potentially be the last game for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. There’s a lot of fallout from the result but let’s stick with what happened in the game.

The Lions have been a team that heavily relied on the offense while the defense was one of the league’s worst units over the first half of the season. Detroit had turned it around to a league-average unit in the second half but the defense really came through to close the regular season.

Detroit was able to disrupt Rodgers and make him play into his worst tendencies from the 2022 season. Rodgers struggled under pressure (-0.61 EPA per play) and he was under it plenty but he also bailed from clean pockets and didn’t perform well when he was in them. Just 51% of Rodgers’s throws were from a clean pocket in the game and he averaged 0.03 EPA per play. On early downs, Rodgers averaged negative EPA from a clean pocket (-0.10).

Part of that stemmed from forcing plays down the field, another bad Rodgers tendency. 25% of his early down throws traveled 20 or more air yards. His overall rate was 25.9% in the game.

The Lions were able to get pressure on Rodgers all game on third downs. Entering the fourth quarter, he was 1-for-2 with two sacks on third down. Early in the quarter he scrambled for a 2-yard gain on a third-and-6. But that brought him to the third down late in the game — a third-and-10 with 3:37 remaining.

Detroit brought a seven-man blitz and the key was Alex Anzalone, who looped into an open gap once A.J. Dillon committed to helping pick up the blitz from the other side. Anzalone got in Rodgers’s face as the quarterback flung a ball deep down the sideline. Rookie Kerby Joseph was the single deep safety on the play and he read Rodgers as he broke to the sideline before the pass was thrown to get there in time for an interception.

 

 

There were struggles for the Detroit offense but the unit clicked late in the game. Through the first three quarters, Jared Goff averaged -0.12 EPA per play and completed just 57.7% of his passes. Goff looked like the cold was bothering him and there were misses on what should have been completions.

But in the fourth quarter, Goff averaged 0.29 EPA per play as he went 8-for-8. But there might not be a bigger discrepancy between Goff’s stat line (8.0 yards per attempt) and what he was asked to do (0.88 average depth of target) in the quarter.

The Lions got their creativity out in that final quarter, though. They ran a hook-and-ladder from Amon-Ra St. Brown to D’Andre Swift that picked up 22 yards on a second-and-17 just before the two-minute warning.

Detroit also had two big fourth down conversions in the quarter when they went empty and trusted Goff to pass. There was only one other time this season the Lions went empty on a fourth down attempt, which came in the first meeting against the Packers and was an incomplete pass to Tom Kennedy in the first quarter. But in this game, the Lions picked up the first twice with both passes to D.J. Chark — a three-yard gain on fourth-and-3 early in the quarter and a nine-yard gain on fourth-and-1 to seal the game late.

Back in Week 4, the Lions and Seahawks played a wild 48-45 shootout in Detroit. That Seattle win proved to be the tiebreaker that sent the Seahawks to the playoffs instead of the Lions.

Seattle hasn’t been the same offense over the second half of the season but there were some signs against the Rams in Week 18 that could give some hope.

Geno Smith threw a few darts, including two long touchdowns. The first to Tyler Lockett was a fun design with a running back offset with Smith under center with motion from the outside receiver to Lockett’s side.

 

 

Later in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks used that same motion with Smith in pistol that helped spring Colby Parkinson open for a 32-yard gain.

 

 

Seattle’s playoff trip brings a third game against San Francisco. The 49ers won the two regular season matchups, once with Trey Lance and once with Brock Purdy. A 21-16 Thursday night game in Week 15 was the most recent meeting between the two teams.

2. The Jaguars won the AFC South

The Jaguars’ game against the Titans for the AFC South crown might have been closer than it should have been given the current state of the Tennessee roster but Jacksonville came away with a 20-16 win and a home playoff game.

Trevor Lawrence continues to develop into a high-level quarterback and some of the fluky mistakes from earlier in the season have disappeared. Lawrence finished the game with 0.13 EPA per play, the seventh-highest for a quarterback this week. For the season, Lawrence also finished seventh among quarterbacks.

It’s a welcome progression that has gotten better throughout the season. There’s a calmness to Lawrence’s game now. He can be patient and let things develop down the field as he did on a 25-yard touchdown pass to Christian Kirk in the second quarter.

 

 

Then Lawrence can also make plays under pressure. Overall, Lawrence struggled under pressure and against the blitz but there were plays when he was able to hang in and make something happen. The Titans sent six on this second-and-10 in the third quarter but Lawrence kept his eyes downfield and delivered a dart to Kirk for a gain of 33 yards.

 

 

For as promising as the Jacksonville offense has been, this was a complete team win and the defense stepped up. Tennessee had a 28.2% rushing success rate in the game as 23.1% of their runs were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Titans held fast on running on first down but couldn’t get anything going. That consistently put Tennessee in long down and distances and allowed the Jaguars’ defensive line to tee off on a poor offensive line and inexperienced quarterback.

The Jaguars had 13 quarterback hits in this game. Josh Dobbs only dropped back 33 times. Three of those hits came from Arden Key, who was a big offseason pickup for just one year and $4 million. Key was a pass rusher who could get to the quarterback but didn’t finish during his time with the Raiders. After a year in the Kris Kocurek school for pass rushers in San Francisco, Key has turned it on with 15 quarterback hits on the season. 

In the secondary, things have started to shift, There’s been a big difference since Darious Williams shifted from slot to the outside. Williams played his best outside with the Rams but at 5-foot-9, it’s tempting to move him inside. Per Next Gen Stats, Williams has allowed 266 yards on 297 coverage snaps in the slot but 131 yards on 216 coverage snaps outside.

The star, though, is Tyson Campbell, who allowed seven yards on two targets in the game. He also had an interception late in the third quarter that highlighted his development as a prospect. He runs with Treylon Burks but keeps his eyes on the quarterback and is able to position himself in front of the receiver on an underthrown ball.

 

The Jaguars will host the Chargers in the Wild Card round and while Los Angeles is favored by 1.5 in Jacksonville, the Jaguars won’t be an easy out.

3. The Bears Are The Most Fascinating Team Of The Offseason

We’ll have plenty of time to discuss the offseason after the playoffs but Sunday’s results ensured the Chicago Bears would be the most talked about team when we get to that point. Chicago did its part with a 29-13 loss to Minnesota that saw both Nathan Peterman and Tim Boyle take snaps at quarterback.

The Houston Texans then gifted the Bears the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft with a 32-31 win over the Indianapolis Colts that featured conversions of fourth-and-12 and fourth-and-20 on the final drive before a successful two-point conversion won the game.

Chicago now has the top pick and the most projected cap space in the league, per Over The Cap. The Bears could set themselves up with a haul of picks by trading back to a quarterback-needy team.

Justin Fields finished the season 20th among quarterbacks in EPA per play (just about Geno Smith) on the back of his rushing ability while passing to the Chicago supporting cast left a lot to be desired.

The Bears are now in a fun spot and could control the league-wide offseason outlook.

4. 2022 NFL Most Valuable Player

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
2. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
3. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
4. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
5. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

This pick can’t be anyone other than Mahomes. He led the league in just about any meaningful passing category. His EPA per play (0.27) gap between Mahomes and Allen was bigger than the gap between Allen and the sixth-best quarterback. Mahomes should have been the MVP favorite throughout the season and he finished in the spot he deserved all season.

Mahomes could get the award by being the quarterback of the league’s best team but even ignoring record, there is nothing close to what Mahomes and the Chiefs did this season. As an overall offense, the Chiefs were the clear best unit. Kansas City doubled Buffalo in EPA per play and more than doubled on EPA per drive. None of that is done without the quarterback. They were at a spot where they were running circles in the huddle in Week 18 against a divisional opponent with the No. 1 seed on the line.

Getting to rank the top five this season makes the MVP vote more interesting. There should be a fairly clear top two but there can be a legitimate argument for the players ranked three through five, including the question of whether a non-quarterback should sneak in and where that could happen. The AFC goes through Kansas City, unless the Chiefs meet the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, which would put the game at a neutral field.

Josh Allen should be the consensus No. 2 in voting. He had some inconsistencies but unlike last season when the lows were quite low, the bad in 2022 was still pretty good and he’s consistently been the quarterback behind Mahomes in overall value. Few quarterbacks have more on their plate given Allen’s rushing in the “break glass in case of emergency” role.

Allen’s 0.20 EPA per play would have been just behind last season’s MVP winner, Aaron Rodgers (0.22). Allen was the only quarterback this season to finish with positive EPA against pressure (0.10) while the next highest quarterback (Mahomes) was at -0.12.

Jefferson gets my fifth-place vote. There’s a decent dropoff in quarterback value by either time or schematic help — or both — in the next tier so this feels like the right place to reward the league’s best non-QB this season. That, of course, brings us to…

5. Offensive Player of the Year

1. Justin Jefferson
2. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
3. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

The Offensive Player of the Year award has recently been given to the best non-quarterback on offense. We will stick with that interpretation here and easily go with Jefferson as the winner. We wrote about how Jefferson became the favorite after Tyreek Hill looked like he’d run away with the honor midway through the season.

Hill still led the league in yards per route run but Jefferson kept up comparable efficiency with over 150 more routes on the season. While Hill certainly changed the math and dynamic around the Miami offense, no passing offense relied on one receiver to carry it more than the Vikings did with Jefferson — especially over the second half of the season. Jefferson finished second in yards per route run (2.63) and led the league in receptions of 20 or more yards (29). 

Kelce gets the third-place vote here as not only the clear top tight end in the league, but Kansas City’s top receiving option. Kelce lapped the tight end field in volume and efficiency while his 12 receiving touchdowns were behind only Davante Adams. He was the league’s best red zone threat with a league-leading 10 touchdowns inside the 20. 

6. Defensive Player of the Year

1. Nick Bosa, EDGE, San Francisco 49ers
2. Chris Jones, iDL, Kansas City Chiefs
3. Micah Parsons, EDGE, Dallas Cowboys

Bosa is the clear favorite here and it’s for a good reason. He was the league’s most dominant pass rusher and it wasn’t particularly close. Bosa recorded a quarterback hit on 7.2% of his pass rush snaps. The next highest pass rusher was at 5.5%. The total gap in quarterback hits between Bosa (47) and the next-highest player (Maxx Crosby) was 13.

Here is a list of some players who had exactly 13 quarterback hits this season: Frank Clark, Cam Jordan, Demarcus Lawrence, and Kayvon Thibodeaux.

Since 2000, only one other player has totaled at least 48 quarterback hits in a season. J.J. Watt had 50 twice in 2014 and 2015.

In another year, Jones would have a compelling case to finish as the Defensive Player of the Year with an Aaron Donald-like dominance inside this season. Jones could have made his case after Week 17 when he was first among defensive tackles in ESPN’s pass rush win rate but he ended the regular season with a bang against the Raiders. Jones had a 31.4% pressure rate in Week 18 to go along with six quarterback hits and 2.5 sacks. His 11 Week 18 pressures were tied for the third-most by a defender in a game this season. He’s the only interior lineman on the list:

Most Pressures In A Game, 2022
data per TruMedia/PFF

Micah Parsons did not allow more pass rush opportunities to slow his ability to create pressure at a high rate. In fact, he led the league in total pressures. Parsons also still led the league in pressure rate and was among the best at creating quick pressure as he led all edge rushers in pass rush win rate.

7. Offensive Rookie of the Year

1. Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
2. Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
3. Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons

There might not be a wrong way to go between the two former Ohio State receivers, even though Seattle running back Kenneth Walker was the betting favorite entering the week. 

Walker tried his best to make a late-season impression with 114 rushing yards in Week 18 but even that highlighted the ups and downs of his game. Those yards came on 29 carries (3.93 yards per carry) while 24% of his rushing attempts gained zero or negative yards against a 6.9% rate of runs that gained 10 or more yards. That type of boom-or-bust running has been Walker’s game all season.

The receivers have been more consistent and much closer to the overall top players at their position. Your preference for Wilson or Olave might come down to volume or efficiency. Wilson was on the field more often but Olave had more big plays to make up for that gap in missed time.

Garrett Wilson vs Chris Olave, 2022
data per TruMedia

Even as of this writing, I’m not sure there’s a right or wrong answer. I’m going to favor Wilson and the volume, especially given the quarterbacks he had to work with. Olave wasn’t put in the ideal situation catching most of his passes from Andy Dalton, but Wilson was a reliable top target in an offense that shifted through Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco.

Both receivers were the only things going for their passing games in Week 18. Wilson saw 53.1% of the Jets’ targets while Olave saw 48% of the Saints’. Wilson’s movement skills were on display in the season finale as he was constantly targeted in traffic, needing to make multiple defenders miss to gain yards. 

There is a tier gap between Wilson and Olave before getting to Drake London, but London is a future star. He was technically a bigger piece of the Atlanta passing game with a 29.3% target share and a target on 27.3% of his routes but his overall production was hindered by how little the offense threw the ball and the inaccuracy of the quarterback when the Falcons did throw.

London could have had a number of big plays throughout the season but was often overthrown. 18.8% of London’s targets were charted as inaccurate, the third-highest rate among receivers behind D.J. Moore and Marquise Brown.

As far as the running backs, it’s not clear Walker was the best of this class. The main difference between Walker and Tyler Allgier of the Falcons, who had a league-high 135 rushing yards in Week 18, is rushing touchdowns. But Allgier makes up for that value with a higher success rate and fewer runs stuffed at or behind the line.

Kenneth Walker vs Tyler Allgier, 2022
data per TruMedia

8. Defensive Rookie of the Year

1. Sauce Gardner, CB, New York Jets
2. Tariq Woolen, CB, Seattle Seahawks
3. Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Detroit Lions

This is another award where the winner should be clear-cut. Gardner wasn’t just the best rookie cornerback, he immediately established himself as one of the league’s best corners overall. Per Next Gen Stats, only two cornerbacks with at least 500 coverage snaps had a higher percentage of targets that were thrown into tight windows. Gardner led the league with 20 passes defensed. He became the sixth rookie since 2000 with at least 20 passes defended:

Rookie Cornerbacks with 20+ Passes Defensed Since 2000
data per TruMedia

Woolen’s rookie season should not be overlooked and he’s closer to a 1B behind Gardner than No. 2. Early in the season Woolen had splash plays make up for some inconsistencies in coverage but his coverage improved throughout the season and those big plays were still there. Woolen was tied for fourth in passes defensed (14) and tied the league lead for interceptions (six). Overall, he finished first in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap, which accounts for touchdowns and interceptions, using Sports Info Solutions charting.

Hutchinson was an interesting case of outstanding raw production while the underlying metrics weren’t as flashy. 9.5 sacks are hard to ignore but Hutchinson ran hot in converting hits into sacks. His 13 quarterback did lead rookies but his 9.9% pressure rate was below George Karlaftis (10.9%) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (10.3%).

It’s still fair to consider Hutchinson the best rookie pass rusher but he wasn’t among the top players of the position overall like Garnder and Woolen were and his gap between the other rookies was not as big as the sack total would suggest.

9. Assistant Coach of the Year

1. Ben Johnson, OC, Detroit Lions
2. DeMeco Ryans, DC, San Francisco 49ers
3. Ejiro Evero, DC, Denver Broncos

The Detroit Lions finished the regular season third in EPA per play and EPA per drive. Jared Goff finished fifth among quarterbacks in EPA per play. If that’s not enough to win the award then we need to reconsider what we’re doing here. Ben Johnson was fun, creative, and aggressive in the right places throughout the season as he schemed up one of the league’s best and most productive offenses.

Even while sifting through some injuries, the 49ers finished the season first in EPA per play and DVOA on defense. DeMeco Ryans continued to build upon what San Francisco was doing toward the end of last season and it was clicking from the start of the season in 2022. Ryans is going to be one of the top head coaching candidates this offseason.

Denver’s defense had a dip toward the end of the season but it’s difficult to hold that against first-year defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, who had that defense playing as one of the league’s best while the Broncos’ offense actively worked against it. The Broncos had nine games when their opponent scored 17 points or fewer, which tied for the third-most in the league. In those games, Denver was 4-5. The other teams were a combined 35-6. Las Vegas (1-2) was the only other team in the league below .500 in those games.

One of the highlights of Evero’s defense was the blitz packages. Denver had the fifth-highest blitz rate overall and the second-highest blitz rate on third down (40.6%). Those third down blitzes were some of the most effective in the league with 3.97 yards per play allowed. 

10. Coach of the Year

1. Brian Daboll, New York Giants
2. Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
3. Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles

There’s also no wrong answer for Coach of the Year. The award can often go to the coach who most exceeded expectations and while Daboll certainly checks that box, there’s more to it. The Giants purposely cut down the 2022 roster in order to have a clear run at starting fresh in 2023. With one of the league’s worst rosters on paper, the Giants won nine games and made the playoffs.

They still had a negative point differential (-6) but it was at zero through Week 17 before resting starters in the finale. Yet even with that, the Giants never looked completely out of place when going against tougher competition. Even the Week 18 game against the Eagles was closer than it should have been given the talent discrepancy.

The Giants’ offense finished the season 11th in EPA per play while the leading wide receivers were Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins.

Andy Reid likely won’t get many votes on real ballots but he was again the coach of the best team in the league. That should qualify someone for Coach of the Year more often than it does.

Nick Sirianni vs Kyle Shanahan can also be a toss-up. Sirianni took a ton of talent and molded an offense around Jalen Hurts, which allowed the quarterback to thrive en route to the top seed in the NFC. Shanahan did something similar with three different quarterbacks to grab the No. 2 seed in the conference. As a team, the 49ers finished the season fourth in EPA per dropback. Both outstanding coaching jobs and a potential matchup in the NFC Championship Game.