57 players have at least 50 targets this season. Of that group, no player has a higher rate of plays with positive EPA than Tennessee Titans wide receiver Corey Davis, at 68.4% according to Sports Info Solutions. That shouldn’t be a surprise as a former fifth-overall pick, but Davis’s first three seasons had not displayed production that matched the draft status, to the point that Tennessee declined Davis’s fifth-year option prior to the 2020 season.
But 2020 has been a breakout of sorts for Davis, who already has career-highs in receiving yards (945) and touchdowns (five). He’s been a key piece to a passing offense that ranks second in DVOA. It’s clear Davis always had the potential to be a successful wide receiver but that hadn’t translated to on-field success until this season, so what has changed?
What’s interesting is that many metrics haven’t changed much at all for Davis, especially from 2019 to 2020 in the same Arthur Smith-coordinated system. Davis’s role has stayed mostly the same as the 1B option opposite A.J. Brown. Per Next Gen Stats, Davis’s average depth of target, yards after the catch per reception, cushion off the line, and separation at target are nearly identical from 2019 to 2020.
Corey Davis Receiving Next Gen Stats, 2019-2020
| Year | aDOT | YAC/R | Avg. Cushion | Avg. Separation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 |
| 2020 | 12.1 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 2.5 |
Despite that similar role, there has been a massive difference between the 945-yard Davis season in 2020 and the rather disappointing 601-yard performance in 2019.
The biggest difference between Davis’s 2019 and 2020 comes in his catch rate. Last season, Davis caught 62.3% of his targets. This year, that number is 75.9%. This isn’t just simply Davis getting better at catching balls. Drops can certainly be a subjective measure of charting, but Sports Info Solutions only charged Davis with three drops in 2019. He has one in 2020. A two-drop difference isn’t enough to make up nearly 13% in catch rate.
Davis, though, has gotten slightly better at reeling in passes that are considered catchable. He has a 95.2% catchable target catch rate this season, but that was still a relatively high 91.3% last season. For reference, A.J. Brown was at 92.7% last year and 83.9% this season, per SIS.
A big difference has come in how many on-target passes Davis has seen this season. Last season, Davis only had a 68.1% catchable rate on his targets and that’s up to 79.7% this year. Combine the higher number of catchable targets with the improved catchable reception rate and we start to pile up a few more catches that lead us toward the year-to-year improvement.
Where those accurate targets have come is really what has made the biggest difference in both the raw numbers and value. This is almost entirely driven by success on deep passes.
Last season, Davis had 10 targets of 20 or more air yards. He had no receptions and none were considered catchable by SIS charting. The deep ball was a problem for Ryan Tannehill last season as the quarterback had one of the lowest on-target rates among starting quarterbacks in the league in 2019. Davis’s deep targets were routinely either reactionary secondary reads on long third downs or just plain missed throws. Only five of those 10 targets were really in the rhythm of the offense.
So far in 2020, Davis again has 10 deep targets. Seven of those throws have been considered catchable and he has six receptions for 255 yards. The yardage gained on deep passes alone makes up for 74% of the difference between his 2019 and 2020 totals.
A lot of this difference has come from opening up the downfield scheme more and getting into the middle of the field more, instead of working straight down the sideline for throws Tannehill hasn’t been able to consistently make.
In 2019, a majority of those targets came down the sideline…
…but in 2020, there has been more work from 20-30 yards in the middle of the field, to the benefit of both Davis and Tannehill.
On a 43-yard reception against the Cleveland Browns in Week 13, Davis ran a deep crosser perfectly underneath Cleveland’s deep zone defense.
Even Davis’s targets that have come deep down the sideline have worked with a sell to the inside before a break outside, like this 50-yard reception in Week 11 against the Baltimore Ravens.
This past week, Davis had a 75-yard touchdown against the Detroit Lions. He lined up in the slot and sold the post against the single-high deep safety before he broke his route to the corner.
These routes and reads have all come within the rhythm of the offense, which has opened up more opportunities for these shots down the field.
With the deep targets hitting, it’s supported Davis’s success in the short and intermediate area as well. Davis has been a perfect intermediate target for Tannehill, a place where the quarterback has seen an explosion of production during his stint in Tennessee.
This season, Davis is first in positive play rate (69.6%) on targets within 19 yards of the line of scrimmage. Those short to intermediate passes were already a place Davis excelled last season, when he was fourth in positive play rate (67.8%) on targets within 19 yards of the line. That success was overshadowed by the lack of big receiving plays down the field.
For the Titans, Davis is serving a perfect role of intermediate threat with downfield upside that has now been unlocked. For the future, teams that could be interested in Davis should be comfortable with the short to intermediate success, but might need to realize a well-schemed downfield attack could be necessary to get the most out of Davis and unlock his full potential.
