With Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft in the books, Rich Hribar, T.A., Brendan Donahue, Ryan McCrystal, and Dan Pizzuta give their thoughts on what happened on Thursday night, including the best moves, biggest surprise, and what they’re looking forward to on Day 2.
What was the best move of Round 1?
Brendan Donahue: I suspect I am not the only one to have this but for me, it’s Chicago moving up and taking Ohio State Quarterback Justin Fields once he fell into a spot where it became more affordable. The Bears were able to move from No. 20 to No.11 by giving up picks No. 20 and No.154 this year along with a first- and fourth-round pick in next year’s draft and get their next franchise quarterback. Fields seemed to have the biggest divide in terms of what scouts/fans thought and what NFL teams thought, as many were banging the table for him to be the third or even second overall pick in this draft. Chicago gets a dual-threat QB who has all the measurables you are looking for but also ranked in the 97th percentile in career TD/INT rate and 94th percentile in career completion percentage for all prospects since 2000. It’s not a matter of if but when he starts over Andy Dalton this season.
T.A.: I love what the Vikings did moving back nine spots, picking up multiple third-round picks from the Jets, and still drafting one do the best tackles in the draft in Christian Darrisaw. Minnesota has a huge need at tackle and to be able to gain draft capital while still drafting the guy they probably would’ve taken at 14 anyways is a tremendous job.
Rich Hribar: The Bears coming up and taking Justin Fields. We all have been partial to Fields all offseason, but Ryan Pace is on his ninth life. Coming in picking at 20, things looked dire and they were able to make a move that can prolong his tenure.
In addition to the percentiles Brendan mentioned, Fields enters the NFL ranked in the 93rd percentile in career yards per pass attempt (9.2 Y/A) for all prospects since 2000 while also coming out in the 85th percentile in career rushing output among the same group.
Ryan McCrystal: The Lions selection Penei Sewell was both safe and smart. Between Sewell and Taylor Decker, Detroit now has potentially elite bookend tackles. That duo could help the Lions be more competitive than expected in 2021, but will also make life much easier for a rookie quarterback down the road when they replace Jared Goff, possibly as early as next April.
Dan Pizzuta: I mean, yea, it’s the Bears’ move to get Fields. He’s very good at football. There’s also the sneaky angle to this that in desperation mode to make Mitchell Trubisky passable last year, the Bears switched to a Shanahanian wide-zone play-action offense at the end of the season — and it mostly worked. From Weeks 12-17, Trubisky was 12th in Passing EPA per Sports Info Solutions. Now imagine a good quarterback doing that.
What was the biggest surprise?
BD: Nobody had the Raiders taking Alabama offensive lineman Alex Leatherwood, but the Raiders reaching at the draft really isn’t a surprise anymore. In that case, I will go with Giants taking Kadarious Toney at No. 20 after trading back from No.11. The thought was they were set to take DeVonta Smith, so Philadelphia pulled off a trade with Dallas to jump in front of them. I thought a guy that they would have been thrilled to still be there at No. 20 was Kwity Paye, but as it turns out they had their hearts set out on taking a wide receiver.
T.A.: I thought there were a bunch of reaches overall but Jacksonville, not only drafting an RB at 23, but doing so after undrafted rookie James Robinson had a tremendous year last year was at the top. Coming from OSU, I understand Urban Meyer’s love of the running game but there was just no need for it especially with a bad roster full of holes on it.
RH: The entire exchange of the Eagles trading up with an intra-division rival to jump ahead of another intra-division rival was unique. It also impacted Dave Gettleman making his first career trade down! Without getting into the weeds on the actual players selected by those NFC East teams after all of the movement, that entire swap of picks among teams in the same division was something we do not see at the top of the draft.
RM: The Raiders reaching for a need isn’t a surprise, but it’s always fun to see who Jon Gruden has talked himself into each year. According to Sports Info Solutions, Alex Leatherwood allowed five sacks in 2020. Christian Darrisaw, who the Vikings selected a few picks later, allowed three sacks over the last two seasons combined. Even if Leatherwood develops into a nice player for Las Vegas, once again Gruden and Mike Mayock demonstrated a lack of understanding for how to play the draft and spend their draft capital wisely.
DP: Everything about the Giants’ draft. They got leaped for DeVonta Smith, then DAVE GETTLEMAN TRADED DOWN, then they still took a receiver who is more raw athlete than receiver at this point. I’m not really sure how Karadius Toney fits in that offense, especially one coordinated by Jason Garrett. The Giants used pre-snap motion on the second-lowest rate in the league last season and if there’s not an effort to move Toney around before the snap, any one of the receiving options still available on Day 2 would have been a better selection.
Who had the Best/Worst Round 1
BD: Best first round has to be the Los Angeles Chargers, who had a top offensive tackle fall into their laps in Rashawn Slater. The Chargers had a glaring need on the offensive line and with the medical reports on Christian Darrisaw, some thought the Chargers would have to trade up to secure Slater or Sewell but they stayed patient and the board rewarded them.
I would say the Packers had the worst day just overall and it had nothing to do with their pick. The Aaron Rodgers news shook up the entire draft. Then they didn’t exactly do anything with their first pick to entice him to stay in Green Bay by going defense again instead of wide receiver. I happen to like Eric Stokes but I don’t think he will have any part in convincing Rodgers to return to the team.
T.A.: Best: Chicago drafting Justin Fields. This was a GM/HC combo on their last leg and facing the daunting task of trying to save their jobs with Andy Dalton as their starting QB. They paid a hefty price but it’s never too much for a franchise QB, which I think Fields can be. If the Bears can be competitive this season and Fields can prove that he can be the Bears’ savior, the franchise might be able to turn the corner.
Worst: Jets. Clearly, Zach Wilson has a great arm but I’m skeptical a one-year wonder like Wilson, who faced bad competition, will be a star QB. Look, I always believe that after QB, drafting top OL is always smart but was there really a great need to trade all the way up nine spots for a guard? It was just unnecessary and they still have big holes to fill on defense — in the secondary and at pass rusher. Losing multiple third-round picks is not ideal when rebuilding their roster and only have 1 selection in the next 76 picks.
RH: Well, not counting the Bears again, the Chargers (Rashawn Slater) and Browns (Greg Newsome) staying put and landing top players at their respective position was extremely strong.
The Chargers finished 31st ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate (47%) and dead last in their Run Block Win Rate (67%) metrics. Per Pro Football Focus, they graded out 30th as a team in pass blocking and 32nd in run blocking grade. Adding Slater to Corey Linsey and Matt Feiler this offseason and this offensive line can make a massive turnaround.
On the negative side, they have become an easy mark under this current regime, but the Raiders continue to have no awareness towards market value or maxing out their draft spot when they want to take a player way above that cost. Alex Leatherwood was ranked 45th on the Athletic consensus big board.
RM: Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy are obvious winners and probably saved their jobs with the selection of Justin Fields. No matter how the 2021 season goes for Chicago, they can believably argue they landed an elite QB prospect outside the top 10 and deserve a few years to develop Justin Fields.
Dallas had one of worst days, missing out on Patrick Surtain and Jaycee Horn. And although Micah Parsons is a talented player, they’ve overinvested in linebacker with Parsons, Jaylon Smith, and Leighton Vander Esch—a position in which many smart teams are purposefully underinvesting.
DP: I remain a big fan of what Miami is doing. The receiving corps was lacking separation last season and now Jaylen Waddle comes in with Will Fuller. Waddle has that smooth deep speed that can be used all over the formation. He’s also served time as the screen-and-run guy, so there’s plenty of usage options for that offense. No receiver did more damage when the ball was thrown his way last season than Waddle. Then there was Jaelan Phillips, who was probably the best pass rusher in this draft. Phillps was only in a 3-point stance 46% of the time last season and that will fit perfectly with the Amoeba fronts and other disguised looks the Miami defense gives pre-snap.
We saw the Steelers coming from a mile away, but it’s still hard to believe they assessed the 2020 offense and came to the conclusion a running back was the answer. The running game definitely needs to improve, but last year the Steelers led the league with 45.6% of their runs hit at the line of scrimmage and a 24.4% stuffed rate. That’s not a running back problem.
What was your favorite team/player fit?
BD: I am just excited to see Joe Burrow reunited with his former teammate Ja’Marr Chase. He adds an explosive dynamic to that Bengals offense and will be the clear alpha in the receiving corps. Expect him and Burrow to be able to pick up right where they left off from an LSU offense that saw Chase put up 1,780 yards and 20 TD’s on 84 receptions.
T.A.: Cleveland/Newsome. Didn’t have to trade up to get the last of the top CB prospects in Greg Newsome. I had Newsome pegged here at 26 all along but was worried Arizona or Tennessee would nab him. He fit their top need and was one of the few players who met Andrew Berry’s prototypical age, production, character, and athleticism profile in Round 1. The Browns defense is officially remade into a potential top 10 unit.
RH: Slater by far. See above.
RM: Rashod Bateman to the Ravens. Per Sports Info Solutions, in 2020, Ravens outside receivers averaged 7.4 yards per target (ranked 24th) with a drop rate of 13.8% (worst in the league). Bateman is a prototypical outside receiver and they were smart to snag him in Round 1, as Day 2 is loaded with slot guys and light on outside weapons.
DP: Trey Lance to the 49ers. Mostly because it wasn’t Mac Jones to the 49ers. But Kyle Shanahan now has this big, athletic moldable quarterback that can potentially unleash some really cool stuff. This opens up more quarterback run game and brings back the ability to throw deep to the outside, which San Francisco just didn’t do with Jimmy Garoppolo.
What are you most looking forward to on Day 2?
BD: Interested to see what Miami does. With two picks in the first 18, they did not address offensive line or running back on Day 1. Do they/are they able to address both? With only one of the top three running backs left on the board, I assume they will target North Carolina RB Javonte Williams with their first pick and go after a right tackle with their second pick but it will be interesting to see their strategy.
T.A.: There should be a nice run of WRs in Rounds 2 and 3 with guys like Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, and Dyami Brown available.
RH: As the resident fantasy gamer here, I am most excited for the Day 2 wide receiver destinations. Over recent seasons, Round 2 wideouts have had some bigger hits than their R1 counterparts and when you look at the Round 1 landing spots from the players selected tonight, it is wide open for that to happen again this season. DeVonta Smith got paired up with Jalen Hurts, who had rookie-season accuracy issues, Rashod Bateman landed in a low-volume passing game, and Kadarius Toney fell into a potential target logjam in New York paired with questionable quarterback play.
We can still see Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, and Terrace Marshall as top options that can find good homes tomorrow to go along with Dyami Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Tylan Wallace as intriguing options that can be productive players next level and picks tomorrow.
RM: Where does Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah land? As a linebacker-safety hybrid, he’s perfect for today’s game. He’s quick enough to cover slot receivers and big enough to match up with tight ends. Maybe Urban Meyer takes him at the top of Round 2. At Ohio State, Meyer had success with Darron Lee in the role—he ended up as a bust in the NFL but played a key role in Ohio State’s 2014 national championship.
DP: Like Ryan, I’m surprised Owusu-Koramoah didn’t go in the first — I like his skill set and value more than the two linebackers who went to the NFC East teams. I’m also going to join in on the group excited about the upcoming wide receiver run. I’ve been a big fan of Terrace Marshall this whole draft process, but a flagged medical appears to have pushed him down boards. I also love Dyami Brown and think he can step in as an immediate deep threat with the potential for more as he develops.
