So last week I added some betting lines (via DraftKings) and will do that again this week and continue to do so going forward. Part of having an accurate mock draft is being able to read the tea leaves and one way of doing that is to as they say “follow the money.”
After the Sam Darnold trade, we do have some rather large line movement that I will note below. If you want to see what I think a team needs or more description of a particular player you can find those aspects addressed in the previous iterations.
Pick #1 Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Previous Mock – Lawrence
Listed at -10000, the biggest lock on the board.
Pick #2 New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Previous Mock – Wilson
Here’s where we saw a huge move in odds after the Darnold trade, since it all but ensured that the Jets will be staying put and taking a QB at No. 2. Wilson saw his odds move from – 500 to -2000 and all signs point to him as the second overall pick.
Pick #3 San Francisco 49ers – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Previous Mock – Jones
This has been another rather large line movement as the talk grows louder around Jones being the guy Shanahan wants at No. 3. Just a week ago, Jones was still basically a coin flip with Fields and Lance, but he is now the clear favorite at -305.
If you think Fields or Lance are still in play here then you are getting great value at Fields +250 and Lance +400, but I am going with Jones as I don’t see the need for the 49ers to play coy with who they are selecting here since they aren’t going to trade out of this slot.
Another sign that Fields or Lance don’t believe that they are the pick here at the moment is that they both have now scheduled another pro day which wouldn’t make sense if they were already told they were the 49ers’ guy.
Pick #4 Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Previous Mock – Justin Fields, QB
I’ve said every week that I believe a quarterback is going at pick No. 4 but now I only believe that if Atlanta trades out of this spot. The fact that they are open to a trade tells me they aren’t sold on a QB here. Instead, they take the best player available on many boards in Kyle Pitts. Pitts is +150 to be the first non-QB selected and -125 under 5.5 draft position.
Pick #5 Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Previous Mock – Sewell
For the first time, I am keeping my pick to the Bengals the same in consecutive weeks. Sewell is the co-favorite with PItts at +150 to be the first non-QB drafted which has improved from last week when he was +200 and Pitts was +125.
Pick #6 Miami Dolphins – Ja’marr Chase, WR, LSU
Previous Mock – Kyle Pitts, TE
As I said last week, with Miami trading back up to No. 6 this early in the draft process they must be confident that one of the guys they would have taken at No. 3 will be there at No. 6. I don’t think they can be very confident that Penei Sewell will be there so they must have been thinking of an offensive skill player to give Tua Tagovailoa another weapon to build around.
Chase is -400 to be the first WR selected which I actually think still presents value. That suggests an 80% probability, but if you listen to the reports, there isn’t a team out there that doesn’t have him as WR1 on their draft board so it seems the odds are much closer to 100%.
Pick #7 New England Patriots – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio St
Previous Mock – Ja’Marr Chase, WR
The first trade of all my mocks! The Patriots have arguably been the most aggressive team this offseason so they continue to push all their chips into the middle and grab their next franchise quarterback in Justin Fields. Fields has a draft position over/under set at 4.5 as Atlanta is an obvious spot for a team to trade up to take him but with Carolina acquiring Sam Darnold, teams may not have as much competition nor feel the need to move up that high so if Atlanta stays at No. 4, Fields over 4.5 at -130 seems like a safe bet.
Pick #8 Carolina Panthers – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Previous Mock – Trey Lance, QB
I’m not sure what it says about the QB’s in this draft outside of the top two that the Panthers had an obvious need there and decided to go with Sam Darnold instead but I think it’s safe to say they will no longer be drafting one here. Instead, they give their new QB some better protection on the offensive line with Slater, who some scouts have as the best tackle available in the draft ahead of Sewell. Slater is currently +315 to be the first offensive lineman selected, so that could present some value depending on which team(s) have him as OT1. As they say, it only takes one.
Pick #9 Denver Broncos – Trey Lance, QB North Dakota St.
Previous Mock – Micah Parsons, LB
Denver now finds themselves in a better spot where they don’t necessarily have to trade up to get one of the top five quarterbacks and I expect them to take whichever one falls to them. In this case, it’s Trey Lance. Denver is currently listed as the favorite to draft Lance at +300 and his over/under is 6.5 with the over at -112.
Pick #10 Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Previous Mock – Surtain
The streak continues as Surtain is the only other player in the top 10 that I’ve had in the same spot every mock outside of Lawrence and Wilson as this pick makes too much sense when you factor in talent, need, and fit. Surtain is the co-favorite with Micah Parsons to be the first defensive player taken at +150, but his odds to be the first CB drafted have gone from -305 to -250 in the past week.
Pick #11 New York Giants – DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Previous Mock – Rashawn Slater, OT
With the top two offensive tackles off the board, the Giants instead give Daniel Jones another weapon to work with. Smith has a draft position over/under at 11.5 with the under at -121, which suggests this is exactly the range he is expected to go.
Pick #12 Philadelphia Eagles – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Previous Mock – DeVonta Smith, WR
In this scenario the Eagles no longer have their pick between former teammates of Jalen Hurts but are still able to get one of them here after trading back from No. 6. And just like his former teammate DeVonta Smith, Waddle has an over/under set at 11.5 but his under is +101.
Pick #13 Los Angeles Chargers – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Previous Mock – Darrisaw
Darrisaw is listed as the third favorite to be the first offensive lineman selected this year which is the good news for him. The bad news is that he is +3300 so I wouldn’t say it’s very likely but he should still hear his name called in the top half of the draft.
Pick #14 Minnesota Vikings – Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan
Previous Mock – Jaelan Phillips, EDGE
Paye is the favorite to be the first defensive lineman selected at -110 and fills an obvious need for the Vikings.
Pick #15 Detroit Lions – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn St.
Previous Mock – Jaylen Waddle, WR
After trading out of the top 10 to pick up additional draft capital, the Lions are still able to acquire who many consider to be a top 10 talent in Parsons. As noted before, he is a co-favorite to be the first defensive player taken at +150 but I could see him slipping a bit because of character concerns. I would be looking at his draft position over/under of 11.5 and lean the over at -112.
Pick #16 Arizona Cardinals – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Previous Mock – Horn
Horn has seen his odds drop from +300 to +200 in the last week to be the first CB selected as he is certainly in the conversation earlier in the draft and the Cardinals will consider themselves lucky for him to still be available here.
Pick #17 Las Vegas Raiders – Tevin Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma St.
Previous Mock – Jenkins
I’m keeping Jenkins here because I’m still sticking with the theme that Gruden and Mayock like to go with “wow” guys, they go with Jenkins here. Jenkins, according to the RAS system (Relative Athletic Scores), just scored a 9.73 out of 10.00 which ranks him 31st out of 1,129 OT’s measured from 1987 to 2021. With the loss of Trent Brown, Jenkins can plug right into right tackle for the Raiders in 2021. Jenkins does have the fifth-best odds to be the first offensive lineman selected but they are +5000.
Pick #18 Miami Dolphins – Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami
Previous Mock – Kwity Paye, EDGE
Phillips has been garnering some buzz after his performance at his pro day which has translated to the betting markets. He is now the clear second favorite behind Paye to be the first defensive lineman selected at +150 with the next DL listed at +700.
Pick #19 Washington Football Team – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
Previous Mock – Owusu-Koramoah
If you think there’s a chance Parsons starts to fall in the draft due to his character concerns, you may want to look at JOK who is +700 to be the first LB taken.
Pick #20 Chicago Bears – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
Previous Mock – Vera-Tucker
Vera-Tucker has the same odds as Christian Darrisaw at +3300 to be the first offensive lineman taken and would be going earlier in the draft if not for the concerns of him playing tackle at the next level but could be the best guard in the draft.
Pick #21 Indianapolis Colts – Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami
Previous Mock – Rousseau
As mentioned earlier, Rousseau’s teammate Jaelan Phillips generated the buzz that translated to the betting markets not just for himself but also unfortunately for Rousseau in the opposite direction. Rousseau was once listed along with Paye and Phillips in the +200 range but has now seen his odds drop to +800 to be the first defensive lineman taken.
Pick #22 Tennessee Titans – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Previous Mock – Farley
With news out that Farley will be ready to return for training camp, many still believe he goes in the first round. Farley, once listed at +200 on Draftkings to be the first CB selected, has seen his odds move down to +800.
Pick #23 New York Jets – Azeez Ojulari, Edge/LB, Georgia
Previous Mock – Samuel Cosmi, OT
New coach Robert Salah gets his wish and adds another pass rusher here to line up opposite new addition Carl Lawson. He is listed as a linebacker on DraftKings and has the same odds as JOK at +700 to be the first LB taken.
Pick #24 Pittsburgh Steelers – Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama
Previous Mock – Jaylen Mayfield, OL
Offensive tackle seems to be a bigger need for teams the deeper we get into the draft and the Steelers are no exception. In fact, they could use an upgrade in multiple spots on the line after losing two starters this offseason. Dickerson once was considered a lock to be taken in the first round before his ACL injury, but all reports are that he is recovering ahead of schedule so he goes to the Steelers and will be a starter on Day 1. Dickerson is now my sixth offensive lineman selected which you will see why that is important for a betting angle in a few picks.
Pick #25 Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
Previous Mock – Christian Barmore, DL
I am strictly following the money here as DraftKings has the over/under for safeties drafted in the first round set at 0.5 but has the over at -250 which implies about a 71% probability. Then if you look at the odds for first safety selected, Moehrig is the heavy favorite at -400 with the next closest at +400. Given the needs for the teams behind them, I think they could wait and still get him at the top of Round 2, but as they say, money talks so I am slotting him here.
Pick #26 Cleveland Browns – Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn St.
Previous Mock – Oweh
Oweh is the third favorite to be the first defensive lineman selected at +700 and makes sense here as I expect Cleveland to address Edge/LB.
Pick #27 Baltimore Ravens – Zaven Collins, OLB, Tulsa
Previous Mock – Collins
Matt Miller reported that he has heard some people believe Collins can go in the top-15 and there are two teams in particular that are considering him. If that’s true, he has tremendous value at +1600 to be the first linebacker selected.
Pick #28 New Orleans Saints – Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
Previous Mock – Terrace Marshall, WR
The total for CB’s selected in the first round have gone from 3.5 and the over at -177 last week to 4.5 and the under -121 which makes sense as Newsome is now the fourth cornerback I have off the board.
Pick #29 Green Bay Packers – Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
Previous Mock – Greg Newsome II, CB
Davis is a player that has gained some buzz over the draft season and now finds himself in the first round as the fifth linebacker off the board. The over/under for the total number of linebackers selected in the first round is 4.5 with the over +130.
Pick #30 Buffalo Bills – Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama
Previous Mock – Azeez Ojulari, EDGE
Back to addressing the Buffalo running game this week, but not back to Travis Etienne. Instead it’s Leatherwood, who should be able to move inside to guard and play Week 1. Leatherwood is now my seventh offensive lineman selected in the 1st round and DraftKings has the over/under set at 6.5 with the over at +110 which has moved from -150 last week and I’m not exactly sure why.
As I stated last week, I think teams will prioritize offensive line this draft coming off of the Super Bowl and coupling that with the fact that offensive linemen are usually some of the safest picks in the draft and with a very unique draft process this year I can see team’s leaning towards the safer picks.
Pick #31 Kansas City Chiefs – Sam Cosmi, OT, Texas
Previous Mock – Alex Leatherwood, OL
And now here’s my eighth offensive lineman off the board which builds a little cushion into the over. I would be shocked if Kansas City didn’t go offensive tackle here especially if someone like Cosmi is still sitting on the board so I really like that over 6.5 +110 bet.
Pick #32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Previous Mock – Etienne
And to finish it out, I am going to again follow the money for now. DraftKings has changed their number of running backs selected from 1.5 to 0.5 in the past week but they have the over set at -225, implying almost a 70% probability. Depending on which team takes a running back, I think some, including Tampa Bay, would prefer Etienne over Harris so I like his odds at +200 to be the first running back selected.
